CMC Presidency Course

Congressional Members at SOTU

2010-01-28T09:28:00.000-08:00

Sadly, I haven't seen the speech yet (curses, Jesse Jackson!)

But I did see a story earlier in the day about Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY).

He gets to the House chamber very early - 8 A.M. - so that he's seen on TV shaking the President's hand. His view:

People say, five months after, I’ll bump into them in my district and they say to me, ‘Oh, Mr. Engel, we saw you on TV.’ And I would have done eight wonderful interviews in August and 12 brilliant interviews in September and they say, ‘No, you were shaking the president’s hand.' It’s what people remember. And my attitude is, if my constituents love it, I love it.

House Approves Biggest Changes in Financial Regulation Since Great Depression

2009-12-12T19:34:00.000-08:00

Obama and fellow Dems eager to change the tide in the financial scheme launched a campaign for transparency in financial regulation. Republicans, lobbyists, and others who have benefited from the cash flow are dismissing these efforts as unneeded . The inter-agency council will serve as a "watchdog agency." Long overdue!

Secret Service B Team

2009-12-09T17:02:00.000-08:00

Here's news coverage of the Secret Service's B Team in action like we discussed last class.

Succession, Protection, and Final Thoughts

2009-12-09T10:47:00.000-08:00

Presidential succession

Presidential protection:

Practice Final

2009-12-08T13:41:00.000-08:00

The following should give you an idea of the exam format. As you prepare, also take a look at the air midterm.

I. Identify the meaning and significance of 14 of the 16 following items (4 points each).

War Powers Resolution
NSC
US v. Curtiss-Wright
Executive agreements
The Russo-Japanese War
Front-loading
Solicitor General
Policy streams
Line-item veto
Election of 1876
The 25th Amendment
Rahm Emanuel
Abe Fortas
Mandatory spending
The Little Rock executive order

II. Quotations: for three of the following four statements, explain who made it and why (4 points each).

But every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have been called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all republicans, we are all federalists.
The money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization.We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.
In closing, let me say this: I will do my best, but I will not do it alone. Let your voice be heard. Whenever you have a chance, say something good about our country. With God's help and for the sake of our Nation, it is time for us to join hands in America. Let us commit ourselves together to a rebirth of the American spirit Working together with our common faith we cannot fail.
Homeland defense and missile defense are part of stronger security; they're essential priorities for America. Yet, the war on terror will not be won on the defensive. We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge. In the world we have entered, the only path to safety is the path of action, and this Nation will act.

III. Answer two of three essay questions (16 points each). Each answer should take 2-3 large bluebook pages or 3-4 small bluebook pages.

In Federalist 8, Hamilton wrote: “It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority.” Have the past two decades confirmed or disconfirmed this observation? Explain, with examples.
Could Hillary Clinton have won the 2008 Democratic nomination? If not, why not? If so, how?
See the excerpt below. Do you agree or disagree? Explain with reference to course materials.

A Democratic president, you'd think, would stick to Franklin D. Roosevelt or Jack Kennedy as role models. Not Barack Obama. As he faces tough times—economically and politically—I am told that he and his advisers are turning to an unusual source for inspiration: Ronald Reagan. Looking back, it shouldn't be a total surprise. On the campaign trail in 2008, Obama said nice things about the Gipper. Reagan, Obama said, "tapped into what people were already feeling, which was: we want clarity, we want optimism, we want a return to a sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing." (At the time, Obama's ode to Ronald seemed nothing more than a jab at the Clintons (who were infuriated), and a bid for Republican votes. But now I see that it was Obama's tell: the clue to how he views himself, politics, and the presidency. He thinks he is Reagan in reverse—a patient, genial game changer for the ages—and his confidence helped soothe the economic panic of a year ago. But it isn't clear whether the president really understands the causes of the Old Man's successes, or the sobering lessons of his failures.

Bonus questions (one point each)

Larry Speakes
Edwin Stanton
Donna Shalala
Penelope Smith
Alexis Simendinger

Obama and the Future

2009-12-07T12:59:00.000-08:00

Afghanistan deliberation

Current poll standing

The 2010 midterm in the House and Senate.

Issues:

Ideological trends

How Secret and Secure is the President?

2009-12-07T10:43:00.000-08:00

This article details a confidential 2003 Secret Service report that found numerous breaches in White House Security over the past few decades. While no president has been attacked since the assassination attempt on President Reagan, it is concerning to learn the (relative) ease with which intruders manage to breach security. Of particular concern is the report's disclosure that eight of the ten intruders had announced their intentions, and three were already being monitored by the Secret Service--yet they still managed to break through its defenses to reach the President and other Secret Service protected officials. This is an interesting revelation, particularly in light of our current reading on the Presidency and national security.

Rahm's Inbox

2009-12-06T02:31:00.000-08:00

Deja Vu.. Kind of

2009-12-05T21:40:00.000-08:00

"Among the ideas expected in his economic speech Tuesday is an expanded program that gives people cash incentives to fix up their homes with energy-saving materials, senior administration officials have told The Associated Press. Obama is leaning toward new incentives for small businesses that hire new workers and new spending on roads, bridges and other public works.."

Obama Scores

2009-12-03T16:02:00.001-08:00

Gallup reports that Obama's approach to Afghanistan is off to a good start with the public:

President Obama has managed to thread the needle with his newly announced Afghanistan strategy, with his approach winning the approval of a majority of both Democrats (58%) and Republicans (55%) in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Wednesday night. At the same time, less than a majority of independents approve (45%). Among Americans overall, 51% approve of the strategy while 40% disapprove.

Afghanistan, Foreign Policy, and National Security

2009-12-02T12:54:00.000-08:00

Constitution and Presidency

"And as Commander-in-Chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan."

Federalist 8: "It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority."

Democracy in America: "If the Union’s existence were constantly menaced, and if its great interests were continually interwoven with those of other powerful nations, one would see the prestige of the executive growing, because of what was expected from it and of what it did."

JFK taped meetings and calls on the Cuban Missile Crisis. In October 1962, JFK discussed the Cuban Missile Crisis on national TV.

As you reflect on JFK's decisionmaking, think about Peter Drucker's dictum: “The first rule in decision-making is that one does not make a decision without disagreement.”

A couple of years later, LBJ dealt with the Gulf of Tonkin. Bad intelligence contributed to the US reaction in the Gulf of Tonkin -- as Robert McNamara later acknowledged:

President Bush the elder launches Desert Storm:

Powell had such influence during the Gulf War because of Goldwater-Nichols.

We went into Afghanistan because of 9/11. Why did the intelligence community fail to foresee or prevent it? From the report of the 9/11 commission:

Commenting on Pearl Harbor,Roberta Wohlstetter found it "much easier after the event to sort the relevant from the irrelevant signals.After the event,of course, a signal is always crystal clear; we can now see what disaster it was signaling since the disaster has occurred. But before the event it is obscure and pregnant with conflicting meanings."...With that caution in mind,we asked ourselves, before we judged others,whether the insights that seem apparent now would really have been meaningful at the time, given the limits of what people then could reasonably
have known or done. We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures in:

imagination (see bin Laden memo)
policy (see NBC report)
capabilities (see Washington Post on translators)
and management (see map of intelligence community)

Faulty intelligence also affected Iraq policy, as the WMD Commission concluded.

In the fall of 2007, President Bush responded to the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran (full transcript here):

QUESTION: My question, sir, is are you feeling troubled about your standing here today about perhaps facing a credibility gap with the American people?
PRESIDENT: No. I'm feeling pretty spirited -- pretty good about life. And I made the decision to come before you so I could explain the NIE. And I have said Iran is dangerous. And the NIE doesn't do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary. I'm using this NIE as an pportunity to continue to rally our colleagues and allies. The NIE makes it clear that the strategy we have used in the past is effective.

The Courts

"That's why we must promote our values by living them at home -- which is why I have prohibited torture and will close the prison at Guantanamo Bay."

See Hamdan v. Rumsfeld

Chris Matthews, the great constitutional scholar, on Hamdan:

Obama Speech Fact Check

2009-12-02T02:29:00.000-08:00

For the record..

Yahoo releases one of many responses to Obama's latest address. Aiming to compare his claims with the reality on the ground, they respond directly to four remarks about the Afghan war.

Obama and China- Saturday Night Live Skit

2009-12-01T23:34:00.000-08:00

http://www.hulu.com/watch/110317/saturday-night-live-china-cold-open

Inappropriate SNL skit, but demonstrates the current media's interpretation of Obama's interactions with China.

President Obama and PM Rudd

2009-11-30T14:30:00.000-08:00

With Copenhagen talks and Afghanistan policy on the President's plate, international cooperation becomes more and more important.

This morning Australian PM Kevin Rudd met with President Obama and Secretary Clinton, declaring:

Australia takes its alliance with the United States very seriously. That’s why we have been with America for a long time in Afghanistan, and why we will be with America for the long haul.

The President has also been (seemingly successfully) pushing for NATO to increase its troop level in Afghanistan and helped convince Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to attend the Copenhagen talks.

A NATO diplomat said Friday that European and other nations already participating in the international force are expected to contribute between 4,000 and 6,000 fresh troops.

...

China announced today that Premier Wen Jiabao will attend the Copenhagen climate summit and that China will commit to reducing its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.

Foreign Policy & National Security I

2009-11-30T12:42:00.001-08:00

The Football

Recognition

Truman and Israel

China

Cuba

Treaties & Executive Agreements

Use of Armed Force

Organization

National Security Council

Intelligence Community

The Military

Foreign Service

Presidential Health

2009-11-29T22:21:00.000-08:00

This article from Slate discusses a new theory about FDR's health in his final days. A new book alleges that FDR actually died from a cancer that he and his doctor's knew about before he ran for his fourth term.

Conspiracy theories like this bring up important issues of presidential transparency. How much are president's and their doctors obligated to reveal about their health? When such a private issue can affect the nation so greatly, is it better to be honest or to uphold the image of the president? JFK kept his health problems private, going out of his way to appear athletic and energetic. After Reagan was shot, he walked into the hospital without help. Bush Sr. was mocked for vomiting on the Japanese Prime Minister. The McCain campaign was criticized for minimizing McCain's melanoma battle.

If FDR really did have cancer, why would he decide to run for a fourth term? How much did it affect his selection of Truman as a running mate? How much does a president's health factor into his decisions?

Hollywood and the Presidency

2009-11-25T10:39:00.000-08:00

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

Seven Days in May (military coup)
Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)

Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Pacific Presidents

2009-11-25T01:24:00.000-08:00

Article by George Will that expands on the idea that we briefly touched on in class. During his trip to Asia, Obama claimed that he was the first "Pacific President", Professor Pitney pretty much debunked that, and this article goes into even further detail. This article also seems to take a very negative view of Obama and doesn't criticize so much for fact checking but instead seems to take it out on Obama as being egotistical.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/223821

Defense Outlays

2009-11-24T05:50:00.000-08:00

Fiscal Year..........%GDP..........%Outlays

2010.....................4.8.....................19.9

2000.....................3.0....................16.5

1990......................5.2....................23.9

1980......................4.9....................22.7

1970......................8.1.....................41.8

1960.....................9.3.....................52.2

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2010/assets/hist.pdf

Freakonomics: The President's Party and the Economy

2009-11-23T14:53:00.000-08:00

The Freakonomics blog posted on how the economy fares under different Presidents.

The salient points:

Since 1949, Democratic presidents almost always presided over a decreasing or flattening of income inequality. During that same time period, Republican presidents have always presided over increasing income inequality.

...

Additionally, real per-capita G.D.P. growth for all income strata is consistently higher under Democratic presidents. Individuals in the 95th percentile, however, do well under both Democratic and Republican presidents, but growth for the rich still tends to be higher when a Republican is in office.

...

Democrats preside over lower levels of unemployment while their Republican counterparts have historically presided over lower levels of inflation. The most accepted explanation for this phenomenon is the existence of a short-run Philips Curve in which inflation and unemployment are inversely related.

...

In the first two years of a Democratic president’s term, the economic growth accelerates. During the third and fourth years, however, the economic growth decreases. The opposite effect is seen with Republican presidents, who preside over decreasing overall growth during the first two years of their term only to have it followed by increased economic growth as re-election looms

Economic Policymaking

2009-11-23T12:57:00.000-08:00

Centrality of economic issues in current public opinion

Graphs and data

The Federal Budget Challenge

Presidential Court Packing

2009-11-18T14:29:00.000-08:00

A recent Obama nominee to the Chicago-based appeals court was just confirmed.

Democrats on Tuesday crushed a Senate filibuster against a controversial appeals court nominee, demonstrating to Republicans they can't stop President Barack Obama from turning the federal judiciary to the left.

HuffPo goes on to say:

Beyond the political message, the filibuster effectively ended a bipartisan accord reached in 2005, when 14 senators signed onto a deal that effectively stopped Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees except in extraordinary circumstances...

The Senate confirmed 326 of Bush's court nominees. There are 876 court seats, mostly for the regionally based courts of appeals and lower district courts.

Domestic Policy and Civil Rights

2009-11-18T12:54:00.001-08:00

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:

LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
Estimation
Selection
Implementation
Evaluation
Termination

Navigating Nuances in Nippon

2009-11-16T14:02:00.000-08:00

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/obama_emperor_bow/2009/11/15/286508.html

Though Newsmax is hardly CNN.com, the article focuses on the history of the presidency when discussing the nature and ramifications of BO's back issues in front of foreign leaders.

The President and the Judiciary

2009-11-16T12:07:00.001-08:00

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

See the story behind Justice Fortas.
See the story behind Justice O'Connor.

The Obama Administration and the Obama White House

2009-11-11T11:33:00.000-08:00

The Cabinet

The West Wing

Staff

EOP

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Essence of Decision: Cheat Sheet

Air Midterm

2009-11-11T10:56:00.000-08:00

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper. If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications

Identify the meaning and significance of the following items. On the real final exam, I shall ask you to write a short paragraph on each item that you choose. What is fair game for an identification?

Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
Items that cover several pages in the readings.

Hayes-Tilden race (1876)
Martin Van Buren
The nuclear freeze
The Hepburn Act
Helvidius
The Roosevelt Corollary
The Fair Deal
Youngstown v. Sawyer
The “Revolution” of 1800
Superdelegates
Mike Huckabee
Politics of preemption

II. Quotations.

Different presidents made the following statements at different times. Tell who said what and why.

The bank is professedly established as an agent of the executive branch of the Government, andits constitutionality is maintained on that ground. Neither upon the propriety of present action nor upon the provisions of this act was the Executive consulted. It has had no opportunity to say that it neither needs nor wants an agent clothed with such powers and favored by such exemptions. There is nothing in its legitimate functions which makes it necessary or proper. Whatever interest or influence, whether public or private, has given birth to this act, it can not be found either in the wishes or necessities of the executive department, by which present action is deemed premature, and the powers conferred upon its agent not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and country.

I did understand however, that my oath to preserve the constitution to the best of my ability, imposed upon me the duty of preserving, by every indispensable means, that government -- that nation -- of which that constitution was the organic law. Was it possible to lose the nation, and yet preserve the constitution? By general law life and limb must be protected; yet often a limb must be amputated to save a life; but a life is never wisely given to save a limb.

But in the event that the Congress shall fail to take one of these two courses, and in the event that the national emergency is still critical, I shall not evade the clear course of duty that will then confront me. I shall ask the Congress for the one remaining instrument to meet the crisis—broad Executive power to wage a war against the emergency, as great as the power that would be given to me if we were in fact invaded by a foreign foe.

III. General essays

Resolved: President Obama won the 2008 election primarily because of underlying features of American electoral politics, and his campaign made relatively little difference. Do you agree or disagree? Explain, with reference to the Ceaser book, along with other class material.

Is it possible to devise an objective measure of presidential greatness? Explain.

Bonus Questions

Lloyd Bentsen
Sidney Blumenthal
Louis Biffer
Benazir Bhutto
Kathleen Blanco

Obama’s Vetting Questionnaire Online

2009-11-09T12:56:00.000-08:00

Here is a copy of the 7 page, 63 item questionnaire for potential candidates. Could you work in the Obama White House?

The Executive Branch

2009-11-09T12:39:00.000-08:00

(The whole documentary is here, in five segments.)

White House tours

Executive Office of the President

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

The Cabinet

"Tear down the wall"

2009-11-09T11:02:00.000-08:00

A look into Reagan's Berlin speech and his famous line telling Gorbachev to "tear down the wall."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704795604574522163362062796.html

The President Whose Words Once Soared

2009-11-08T20:37:00.000-08:00

This is an interesting article that discusses about the effects of Obama's speeches on decision making and public opinion. It questions whether Obama's speech making skills are beginning to lose their influential touch, and whether he will be able to have his expected impact in policy making as he continues to give multiple speeches a day and the intended audience begins to tune out. The article also mentions the large increase in the frequency of presidential speech making over time, referencing specific president's such as Truman and Reagan. Because of this change, individual speeches are less influential in general, which can be detrimental to a president like Obama who strives on his ability to communicate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/weekinreview/08baker.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

Those who voted for the bill.

2009-11-08T19:37:00.000-08:00

After our discussion about LBJ and negotiating for votes, I wonder what these Democratic members got for voting in favor of the healthcare bill? This link has a list of Democrats who represent GOP-leaning districts but still voted with the caucus.

Summarized into 3 groups:

R+11 or worse: 0 Yes, 14 No

R+3 to R+10: 20 Yes, 18 No

R+2 or better: 199 Yes, 7 No

YES votes in R+3 to R+10 group:

ND-AL Pomeroy (R+10)

WV-01 Mollohan (R+9)

AR-01 Berry (R+9)

IN-08 Ellsworth (R+9)

PA-10 Carney (R+9)

OH-18 Space (R+7)

SC-05 Spratt (R+6)

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick (R+6)

IN-09 Hill (R+6)

WV-03 Rahall (R+6)

AZ-05 Mitchell (R+5)

AR-02 Snyder (R+5)

CO-03 Salazar (R+5)

VA-05 Perriello (R+5)

AZ-08 Giffords (R+4)

TX-23 Rodriguez (R+3)

KS-03 Moore (R+3)

MI-01 Stupak (R+3)

NY-19 Hall (R+3)

PA-03 Dahlkemper (R+3)

The Health Vote

2009-11-08T07:45:00.000-08:00

The New York Times has an extremely informative table showing the characteristics of the House Democrats who votes against the health bill. A summary:

Only one Republican voted for the bill, and 39 Democrats opposed it, including 24 members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. An overwhelming majority of the Democratic lawmakers who opposed the bill — 31 of the 39 — represent districts that were won by Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, in the 2008 presidential election, and a third of them were freshmen. Nearly all of the fourteen freshmen Democrats who voted “no” represent districts that were previously Republican and are considered vulnerable in 2010. Geographically, 22 lawmakers from southern states formed the largest opposition bloc. Below are details on the Democrats that opposed the health care legislation in the House.

Peggy Noonan on the Obama Administration's Agenda and Tuesday's Election

2009-11-06T10:35:00.000-08:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574517751596221752.html

Interesting Peggy Noonan article about Obama's support to Democratic candidates, and its rapidly slipping hold on American voters concerned about the economy:

A president has only so much time. Mr. Obama gives a lot of his to health care. But the majority of voters in New Jersey and Virginia told pollsters they were primarily worried about joblessness and the economy. They're on another path, and they don't like the path he's chosen. A majority in a Gallup poll out Wednesday said they now think the president governs from the left, not the middle. The majority did not expect that a year ago.
The president chose promises made before the recession fully took hold, rather than more pressing and pertinent public concerns. In the language of marketing that has become the language of politics he thereby, in his first year, damaged his brand.

NAIL: A Simple Mnemonic for Congressional Checks

2009-11-04T20:01:00.000-08:00

NAIL is a mnemonic device for four ways by which the legislative branch oversees or checks the executive.

Nominations. The Senate must confirm presidential nominations to high-level executive posts. Most nominations are uncontroversial and win easy approval. But the threat of defeating nominees may influence the names that the president sends to the Hill. And confirmation hearings not only enable senators to judge the nominees' qualifications but let them send messages to the administration. See Leahy ask Mukasey about torture. See Harkin talk to Solis about disabilities.

Appropriations. Lawmakers may use earmarks and limitations are to direct and restrict the availability of funds for specified activities. Look here for a map of some earmarks. As with nominations, they may also use hearings to raise policy questions. See Obey ask Secretary Gates about Gitmo.

Investigations. Congressional committees often conduct investigations and oversight hearings. One famous example was the Senate Watergate Committee, in which then-staffer Fred Thompson played a role. Recently, Senator Feingold held an oversight hearing on "czars." Congress may also study executive branch operations through the GAO, the CBO, and the CRS.

Legislation. Of course, Congress may influence the executive by passing laws requiring or forbidding certain activities. As the readings point out, the Supreme Court ruled against the "legislative veto."

Congress seldom resorts to a more powerful weapon: impeachment. See the cases of Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton.

In curbing the executive, how successful has Congress been? Under which circumstances does which branch have the upper hand?

Third Essay Assignment

2009-11-02T17:36:00.000-08:00

Choose one:

1 See a day in the Ford presidency or choose a day in the Clinton presidency. Did the president use his time wisely on that day? If so, why? If not, what should he have done differently?

2. Anthony Kennedy has just retired from the Supreme Court. Whom should President Obama nominate in his place? Explain, considering qualifications and confirmability.

3. Identify a personnel change that you would make in the Obama administration. In other words, whom would you sack and whom would you hire in that person’s place? Explain how your proposed change would serve the president.

4. The recently-ratified Twenty-Eighth Amendment has made you – yes, you, a college student here in Claremont – the 45^th president, filling the rest of President Obama’s term. Explain a program or idea that you would attempt to carry out, other than what the current president is already doing.

5. Rahm Emanuel has asked for your advice: “I need your ##@!!!% help,” he says. “What the &&%%$#@ should President Obama do to influence congressional action on either health care or climate change? Write me a **&&^%$ memo, and do it $$#%^& fast.”

6. Write on a relevant question of your own choosing, subject to my approval.

Essays should be typed (12 point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.

Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.

Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).

Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.

Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday, 18 November. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade for two or more days' lateness. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

The shifting conventional wisdom

2009-11-02T14:17:00.000-08:00

Not so long ago, everyone was talking about the failures of the White House's hands-off approach to the the health care reform legislative process. But I think this new understanding reflects the way the White House has seen the field since Day One.

President and Congress

2009-11-02T13:04:00.000-08:00

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).

How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.

As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?

As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Obama's Performance So Far

2009-11-01T19:01:00.000-08:00

Newsweek had a cover story on Obama and an analysis of his "first year" in office. They are saying that his Presidency actually starts on the day he was elected because of the power he was able to put to use from outside the White House. For instance, according to his staffers, he made the decision on election night to pursue Healthcare.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/219372

Also, on a completely different note here's an old news piece about President Bush's adventures with Sushi and the Japanese Prime Minister that we discussed in class a couple weeks ago. I'll preface it by saying it does show the moment he throws up on the Prime Minister so only watch if you're so inclined.

You can find it here.

Real Executive Leadership

2009-10-28T14:44:00.000-07:00

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/27/schwarzenegger-sends-lawm_n_336319.html

Can you find the secret message?

Secret Messages

The Real TV President

2009-10-27T22:24:00.000-07:00

Some say these are some of the best presidential speeches, too bad they're not real.

Although these clips are fictional and often improbable, they reflect the expectations of the presidency. Presidents play a role. FDR was never photographed in his wheel chair, Eisenhower cultivated an aloof public persona, JFK hid his feeble health, etc. As head of state, the symbolic role of the POTUS sometimes overshadows his actions as chief executive.

World War II Disney Propaganda

2009-10-26T14:28:00.000-07:00

Presidential Rhetoric

2009-10-26T12:14:00.000-07:00

Gettysburg:

The Second Inaugural

FDR's First Fireside chat ... on banking.

The Map Speech

FDR also made speeches for newsreels:

JFK Inaugural:

Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" Speech

Reagan's Evil Empire Speech:

Brief History of WhiteHouse.gov

2009-10-26T11:26:00.000-07:00

President Clinton established WhiteHouse.gov in 1994. Since then, the website has changed dramatically from administration to administration.

Here's a little more information.

Here's a slideshow of the many faces of the website.

President Obama in campaign mode in Florida

2009-10-25T22:56:00.000-07:00

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28719.html

OFA takes over the DNC?

2009-10-25T20:43:00.000-07:00

Earlier we talked about how the Obama for America campaign has retooled itself into Organizing for America. Yesterday, Politico published this article describing OFA's attempts to integrate itself with the DNC. It's an interesting merging between what some see as a reelection campaign and a committee that is supposed to serve the interests of the entire party, and apparently some party heavy-weights are unhappy with how blurry this line could get.

It makes for an interesting comparison with the Republican leadership, which often seems to be at odds with the RNC (or at least its mouthpiece, Chairman Michael Steele). I wonder how the blending of OFA and the DNC, if it happens, will influence the the Democratic Party in future elections.

But Vermont IS one of the 50 states

2009-10-25T19:06:00.000-07:00

In the chapter we read last week, Pika and Maltese claim that it took George W. Bush only three years and two months to visit all 50 states as President. I was reminded then of numerous press accounts from the last months of Bush’s presidency wondering if he would finally visit Vermont, and have since done some research. According to the CBS reporter Pika and Maltese actually cite, President Bush never did visit the Green Mountain State. But what makes this mistake strange is that the newspaper article Pika and Maltese reference explicitly highlights their mistake and explains that it took President Bush six years and six months to make it to his 49^th state, Rhode Island. Here’s the relevant section:

49 down, 1 to go
A speech by President Bush at the Naval War College last week marked the first visit to Rhode Island of his presidency. The trip left just one state that Bush has not visited as president: Vermont. Bush lost Vermont in both 2000 and 2004, so don't expect him to head there for Ben & Jerry's any time soon. According to Mark Knoller of CBS News, it took Bill Clinton until seven years and 11 months into his presidency to visit all 50 states, making it to Nebraska in December 2000. George H.W. Bush, on the other hand, hit all 50 states in three years and two months. Ronald Reagan never made it to all 50, according to Knoller – he visited 46.

Secret Service

2009-10-21T18:15:00.000-07:00

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/10/18/secret_service_under_strain_as_leaders_face_more_threats/

Public Opinion and the Public Presidency

2009-10-21T10:46:00.001-07:00

John Pohoretz describes the reverential attitude with which popular culture once depicted the presidency:

George M. Cohan, the song-and-dance man, is invited to the Oval Office by Franklin D. Roosevelt. He is an old man, and thrilled beyond words to discover his president is a fan. FDR asks Cohan to tell him the story of his life, and thus begins Yankee Doodle Dandy, James Cagney's glorious 1942 musical.

The face of the actor who plays Roosevelt is obscured. We hear his voice, but he is photographed from the back, from the side, over his shoulder. The effect is to raise FDR's status to that of a divinity, the Hollywood equivalent of the Lord telling Moses: "Thou canst not see my face: for there shall no man see me, and live . . . thou shalt see my back parts: but my face shall not be seen."

Yankee Doodle Dandy clip here.

Polarization under Bush and Obama (Gallup data on Bush and Obama)

Organization Chart and West Wing Map

Writing for the Ear

Bill Clinton explains "crafted speech":

So what do I use polls for on the issues? What I primarily use polls for is to tell me how to make the argument that's most likely to persuade you that I'm right about what I'm trying to do. ... Okay. I'll give you an example where, according to the polls I have the unpopular position, okay? The Congress passes a repeal of the estate tax, an outright repeal. Now, I can--and I'm going to veto it if it comes to my desk, okay? Now, I can say the following. I can say, "I'm going to veto this because it only helps less than 2 percent of the people and half of the relief goes to one-tenth of one percent of the people, and it's an average $10 million." That is a populist explanation.
I can say, "I'm going to veto it because we only have so much money for tax cuts, and I think it's wrong to do this and say this is our highest priority, when we have done nothing to lower the income taxes of low-income working people with three kids or more or to help people pay for child care or long-term care for their elderly or disabled relatives or to get a tax deduction for college tuition."
Or I could say, "I think there should be estate tax relief." I do, by the way. "I don't care if it does help primarily upper income people. The way so many people have made so much money in the stock markets in the last 8 years, there are a lot of family-owned businesses that people would like to pass down to their family members, that would be burdened by the way the estate tax works, plus which the maximum rate is too high. When it was set, income tax rates were higher, but there was a lot of ways to get out of it. Now the rates are lower, but you have less ways to get out of it. You have to pretty much pay what you owe more." So I could say that.
So it's not fair to totally repeal it. Like even Bill Gates has said, "Why are you going to give me a $40 billion tax break." And he's going to give away his money, and I applaud him and honor him for it.
So I could make either of those three arguments. It's helpful to me to know what you're thinking. I know what I think is right. I'm not going to change what I think is right. But in order to continue to be effective, you have to believe I'm right. So that's kind of what I use polls for.

Second Essay Assignment

2009-10-15T13:16:00.000-07:00

Pick one of the following:

1. Write a Saturday radio address for President Obama. (You may find past addresses at http://www.whitehouse.gov/weekly_address/). The address itself should take two pages. Then write a two-page essay explaining what you are trying to do in the address. What message are you sending to what audience for what intended effect?

2. Look at various schemes for rating presidents (e.g., Pika 149-150 and http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007243). Identify a president about whom at least two of the ratings disagree strongly. Explain why this president’s performance gets such divergent grades. That is, what did this president do to trigger such different reactions from different raters?

3. You have a time machine and the opportunity to advise Barack Obama or John McCain on one campaign decision. What should he do differently, and why?

4. Subject to my approval, write a four-page essay on any relevant topic of your choice.

Essays should be typed (12-point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.

If you pick the second option, please provide me with a way to read the speech or article. If it is on the Internet, include the URL in your references. If it is available only on dead tree, please attach a photocopy, which will not count against the page limit.

Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.

Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).

Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.

Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday 28 October. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade after that. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

Washington State Voting Changes Post Election of 2000

2009-10-14T16:20:00.000-07:00

Washington State had its own controversial election in 2004 where Dino Rossi was announced the winner with 261 more votes than Democratic challenger Christine Gregoire. According to Washington State Law, a mandatory machine recount is done if the candidates differ in margin by 150 to 2,000 votes and a mandatory manual recount is done if the difference is less than 150 votes. After this recount, the gap narrowed to a 42 vote difference. After the manual recount the decision was REVERSED. Gregoire took a 133 vote lead and Rossi did not want to challenge further. These new recounts included ballots that were previously thrown out and recently "found" ballots in places like mail bags or inside envelopes.

The problems faced in our Gubernatorial election were met with serious election reform and overhaul. With the help of HAVA funding, the Washington State Secretary of State's Office is now on the cutting edge of election reform with things like:

Online Voter Registration Database

Statewide Guidelines for What Counts as a Vote

Only Absentee Voting Statewide (with the exception of one county)

and hopefully in the future Overseas Military Voting Via Internet

Just a quick plug for my home state that rarely gets national political attention.

The Electoral Process

2009-10-14T13:06:00.000-07:00

From Federalist 39:

The executive power will be derived from a very compound source. The immediate election of the President is to be made by the States in their political characters. The votes allotted to them are in a compound ratio, which considers them partly as distinct and coequal societies, partly as unequal members of the same society. The eventual election, again, is to be made by that branch of the legislature which consists of the national representatives; but in this particular act they are to be thrown into the form of individual delegations, from so many distinct and coequal bodies politic. From this aspect of the government it appears to be of a mixed character, presenting at least as many federal as national features.

One Democratic Presidential Candidate we Forgot to Discuss

2009-10-12T13:26:00.000-07:00

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/148507/january-28-2008/south-carolina-

Strategery!

2009-10-12T11:40:00.001-07:00

Demographics: the 2008 exit poll

Geography: the electoral map

Strategy and the strategic grid.

Air War: Ads!

Ground War: An Obama Manual (note, esp. the commandments on p. 73).

The course of the 2008 campaign: RCP averages.

On Nominations

2009-10-09T23:18:00.000-07:00

Nate Silver just wrote a piece about possible reforms coming to the nomination process of the Democratic Presidential candidate. The article is an interesting read, so if you have a few minutes check it out. He also compiled a very interesting table:

Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Writing

2009-10-09T16:31:00.000-07:00

Some of you might benefit from going to the CMC Writing Center.
For endnotes, never use lowercase Romans. Always use Arabic numerals. Click here to learn how to change format.
In endnotes, the author's first name always goes first.
Use a short citation for second and subsquent references to a work. See: http://www.indiana.edu/~citing/Chicago.pdf, page 4.
Watch out for shifts in tense.
In American sentences, the period comes before the quotation mark, which comes before the superscript.
Introduce your quotations.

President Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize

2009-10-09T09:41:00.001-07:00

This is already making for a great debate...

KARL RITTER and MATT MOORE, Associated Press Writers – 57 mins ago
OSLO – President Barack Obama won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday in a stunning decision designed to build momentum behind his initiatives to reduce nuclear arms, ease tensions with the Muslim world and stress diplomacy and cooperation rather than unilateralism.
Obama said he was surprised and deeply humbled by the honor, and planned to travel to Oslo to accept the prize, which he said he does not see "as a recognition of my own accomplishments," but rather as a recognition of goals he has set for the United States and the world.
"I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many transformative figures that have been honored by this prize," Obama said.
Many observers were shocked by the unexpected choice so early in the Obama presidency, which began less than two weeks before the Feb. 1 nomination deadline and has yet to yield concrete achievements in peacemaking.
Some around the world objected to the choice of Obama, who still oversees wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and has launched deadly counter-terror strikes in Pakistan and Somalia.
Members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said their choice could be seen as an early vote of confidence in Obama intended to build global support for his policies. They lauded the change in global mood wrought by Obama's calls for peace and cooperation, and praised his pledges to reduce the world stock of nuclear arms, ease American conflicts with Muslim nations and strengthen the U.S. role in combating climate change.
Aagot Valle, a lawmaker for the Socialist Left party who joined the committee this year, said she hoped the selection would be viewed as "support and a commitment for Obama."
"And I hope it will be an inspiration for all those that work with nuclear disarmament and disarmament," she told The Associated Press in a rare interview. Members of the Nobel peace committee usually speak only through its chairman.
The peace prize was created partly to encourage ongoing peace efforts but Obama's efforts are at far earlier stages than past winners'. The Nobel committee acknowledged that they may not bear fruit at all.
"He got the prize because he has been able to change the international climate," Nobel Committee chairman Thorbjoern Jagland said. "Some people say, and I understand it, isn't it premature? Too early? Well, I'd say then that it could be too late to respond three years from now. It is now that we have the opportunity to respond — all of us."
After the prize was announced, Jagland compared the decision to give it to Obama to the prize was given to German Chancellor Willy Brandt in 1971 for his "Ostpolitik" policy of trying to find common ground with Eastern Europe, which was under Communist sway.
He said the same thing was true when then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev got the prize in 1990 after he had launched perestroika and glasnost, and allowed Eastern Europe to emerge from Kremlin control.
The selection to some extent reflects a trans-Atlantic divergence on Obama. In Europe and much of the world he is lionized for bringing the United States closer to mainstream global thinking on issues like climate change and multilateralism. At home, the picture is more complicated. As president, Obama is often criticized as he attempts to carry out his agenda — drawing fire over a host of issues from government spending to health care to the conduct of the war in Afghanistan.
U.S. Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele contended that Obama won the prize as a result of his "star power" rather than meaningful accomplishments.
"The real question Americans are asking is, What has President Obama actually accomplished?" Steele said.
Obama's election and foreign policy moves caused a dramatic improvement in the image of the U.S. around the world. A 25-nation poll of 27,000 people released in July by the Pew Global Attitudes Project found double-digit boosts to the percentage of people viewing the U.S. favorably in countries around the world. That indicator had plunged across the world under President George W. Bush.
Asked whether the prize could be seen as praising Obama's reversal of Bush administration policies, Inger-Marie Ytterhorn, a senior political adviser to the right-wing populist Progress Party told the AP that: "I guess you could read it like that."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has made no secret of his admiration for Obama, called the decision the embodiment of the "return of America into the hearts of the people of the world."
But Obama's work is far from done, on numerous fronts.
He said he would end the Iraq war but has been slow to bring the troops home and the real end of the U.S. military presence there won't come until at least 2012.
He's running a second war in the Muslim world, in Afghanistan — and is seriously considering ramping up the number of U.S. troops on the ground and asking for help from others, too.
"I don't think Obama deserves this. I don't know who's making all these decisions. The prize should go to someone who has done something for peace and humanity," said Ahmad Shabir, 18-year-old student in Kabul. "Since he is the president, I don't see any change in U.S. strategy in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Obama has said that battling climate change is a priority. But the U.S. seems likely to head into crucial international negotiations set for Copenhagen in December with Obama-backed legislation still stalled in Congress.
Former Polish President Lech Walesa, who won the prize in 1983, questioned whether Obama deserved it now.
"So soon? Too early. He has no contribution so far. He is still at an early stage. He is only beginning to act," Walesa said.
"This is probably an encouragement for him to act. Let's see if he perseveres. Let's give him time to act," Walesa said.
Unlike the other Nobel Prizes, which are awarded by Swedish institutions, the peace prize is given out by a five-member committee elected by the Norwegian Parliament. Like the Parliament, the committee has a leftist slant, with three members elected by left-of-center parties. Jagland said the decision to honor Obama was unanimous.
The award appeared to be at least partly a slap at Bush from a committee that harshly criticized Obama's predecessor for his largely unilateral military action in the wake of the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
"Those who were in support of Bush in his belief in war solving problems, on rearmament, and that nuclear weapons play an important role ... probably won't be happy," said Valle, the Nobel Committee member.
The Nobel committee praised Obama's creation of "a new climate in international politics" and said he had returned multilateral diplomacy and institutions like the U.N. to the center of the world stage.
"You have to remember that the world has been in a pretty dangerous phase," Jagland said. "And anybody who can contribute to getting the world out of this situation deserves a Nobel Peace Prize."
Until seconds before the award, speculation had focused on a wide variety of candidates besides Obama: Zimbabwe's Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, a Colombian senator, a Chinese dissident and an Afghan woman's rights activist, among others. The Nobel committee received a record 205 nominations for this year's prize, though it was not immediately apparent who nominated Obama.
Obama is the third sitting U.S. president to win the award: President Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 and President Woodrow Wilson was awarded the prize in 1919.
Wilson received the prize for his role in founding the League of Nations, the hopeful but ultimately failed precursor to the contemporary United Nations.
The Nobel committee chairman said after awarding the 2002 prize to former Democratic President Jimmy Carter, for his mediation in international conflicts, that it should be seen as a "kick in the leg" to the Bush administration's hard line in the buildup to the Iraq war.
Five years later, the committee honored Bush's adversary in the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore, for his campaign to raise awareness about global warming.
In July talks in Moscow, Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed that their negotiators would work out a new limit on delivery vehicles for nuclear warheads of between 500 and 1,100. They also agreed that warhead limits would be reduced from the current range of 1,700-2,200 to as low as 1,500. The United States now has about 2,200 such warheads, compared to about 2,800 for the Russians.
But there has been no word on whether either side has started to act on the reductions.
Former Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, said Obama has already provided outstanding leadership in the effort to prevent nuclear proliferation.
"In less than a year in office, he has transformed the way we look at ourselves and the world we live in and rekindled hope for a world at peace with itself," ElBaradei said. "He has shown an unshakable commitment to diplomacy, mutual respect and dialogue as the best means of resolving conflicts."
Obama also has attempted to restart stalled talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, but just a day after Obama hosted the Israeli and Palestinian leaders in New York, Israeli officials boasted that they had fended off U.S. pressure to halt settlement construction. Moderate Palestinians said they felt undermined by Obama's failure to back up his demand for a freeze.
Obama was to meet with his top advisers on the Afghan war on Friday to consider a request by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, to send as many as 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan as the U.S war there enters its ninth year.
Obama ordered 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan earlier this year and has continued the use of unmanned drones for attacks on militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a strategy devised by the Bush administration. The attacks often kill or injure civilians living in the area.
Nominators for the prize include former laureates; current and former members of the committee and their staff; members of national governments and legislatures; university professors of law, theology, social sciences, history and philosophy; leaders of peace research and foreign affairs institutes; and members of international courts of law.
In his 1895 will, Alfred Nobel stipulated that the peace prize should go "to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations and the abolition or reduction of standing armies and the formation and spreading of peace congresses."
The committee has taken a wide interpretation of Nobel's guidelines, expanding the prize beyond peace mediation to include efforts to combat poverty, disease and climate change.
___
Associated Press writers Ian MacDougall in Oslo, Rahim Faiez in Kabul, Celean Jacobson in Johannesburg, George Jahn in Vienna, Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland, Matti Huuhtanen in Helsinki and Jennifer Loven in Washington contributed to this report.

The Nomination Process & 2008

2009-10-07T12:16:00.000-07:00

The best ad of 2008:

Fred Thompson did not set the race on fire.

Democratic demographics helped explain Obama's advantage.

So did the issue of change v. experience.

Hillary Clinton had certain key assumptions.

Obama built a huge fundraising advantage.

Obama emerges

The speech led to a certain music video. Ten million views so far:

HRC tears up during NH campaign stop

Fox News "helpfully" compiled Jeremiah Wright's greatest hits:

The 3 AM ad:

HRC's Bosnia problem

The bitter clingers:

So long, Tim

Scots-Irish

2009-10-06T12:12:00.000-07:00

Cameron Joseph `08 has a perceptive analysis of the Scots-Irish vote at The Atlantic:

The populist fury aimed at President Obama and his fellow Democrats may have roots much deeper than health care. In fact, it may be that it can be traced back to the emigration of the Scots-Irish, the first white group to settle interior America.They've been called rednecks, hillbillies and crackers. In the modern parlance of political correctness, they've been referred to as the Bubba vote. They live in Sarah Palin's "real America," and they make up the majority of Reagan Democrats. They count as distant relatives at least twelve U.S. presidents, from Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton and even to Barack Obama, yet the Scots-Irish remain largely ignored as an ethnic group in America

Questions and Answers

2009-10-05T16:27:00.001-07:00

Here are some answers to recent questions that have come up in class:

1. Milkis and Nelson are not quite accurate when they speak of "a signficiant reduction in domestic spending" under Reagan (p. 370). In constant FY2000 dollars, there was a drop in nondefense discretionary spending, from $282.1 billion in FY81 to $255.3 billion in FY89. But more than offsetting this change were large increases in other areas of domestic spending:

...............................FY81......FY89
Social Security.......$246b....$300b
Means-Tested
Entitlements (for
the needy)..............$93b.......$111b

2. Here is the formula for the Major Party Index (MPI): ((Most recent 2-Party Republican Presidential Vote)*0.25) + ((Average of the Two Most Recent Republican 2-Party Votes for the U.S. Senate)*0.125) + ((Republican 2- Party Percent of all U.S. House Votes)*0.125) + ((Most Recent 2-Party Republican Vote for Governor)*0.25) + ((2-Party Republican Percentage of Seats in the State Senate)*0.125) + ((2-Party Republican Percentage of Seats in the State House)*0.125). More detail here.

3. In 1976, the first year for which we have FEC data, all presidential candidates in both parties raised a total of $171 million in the primary and general election campaigns. That amount equals $647 million in 2008 dollars (CPI). The latest figures show that Barack Obama raised $656 million in 2008. In other words, he raised more money than all of the 1976 candidates put together.

More Gallup Polls

2009-10-05T16:22:00.000-07:00

During today's examination of party identification I remembered Nate Silver's piece about coming of age during different Presidential administrations.

Mr. Silver argues:

What's interesting, though, is what happens when we look at not these abstract generational categories, but rather at the following question: who was President when you turned 18? As annotated in the chart below, the popularity -- or lack thereof -- of the President when the voter turned 18 would seem to have a lot of explanatory power for how their politics turned out later on.

The Context of the 2008 Election

2009-10-05T13:04:00.001-07:00

Trend in Party Identification

The "Time for a Change" Model.

ICK:

Epic Journey links

2009-09-30T14:46:00.000-07:00

Recent Presidents

2009-09-30T14:38:00.000-07:00

Carter wore a sweater.
Reagan was a stronger communicator.
Clinton, alas, will go down for an unfortunate phrase.

Ike Through Carter

2009-09-28T12:38:00.000-07:00

Just before Eisenhower became president, his son John went to Korea to serve in an infantry unit. In the New York Times, the younger Eisenhower recalls a conversation that you probably never had with your dad.

As the time for my deployment approached, I discussed my intentions with my father. We met at the Blackstone Hotel in Chicago, just after the Republican convention, and I explained my position. My father, as a professional officer himself, understood and accepted it. However, he had a firm condition: under no circumstances must I ever be captured. He would accept the risk of my being killed or wounded, but if the Chinese Communists or North Koreans ever took me prisoner, and threatened blackmail, he could be forced to resign the presidency. I agreed to that condition wholeheartedly. I would take my life before being captured.

Ponder that last line. A president needs a pint or two of very cold blood.

In early 1961, Ike gave his Farewell Address, famously warning of the military-industrial complex. Days later, the torch passed to JFK, who took a distinctly militant tone in the Cold War. Kennedy took full advantage of new technology, starting the practice of holding press conferences on live TV. His successor, Lyndon Johnson, had an earthy way of expressing himself.

In future weeks, we shall discuss Nixon in greater detail. But this brief clip gives a glimpse of what he termed a "cold-blooded" view of international politics. President Nixon sought to rally the "silent majority" for his Vietnam policies.

Ford was a healer.
Carter wore a sweater.

Can you tell I'm anticipating the JFK lecture

2009-09-24T09:54:00.001-07:00

(click for bigger, readable version)

From what is possibly my favorite website, Hark! A Vagrant by Kate Beaton

FDR through DDE

2009-09-23T12:18:00.000-07:00

Presidents in the Early 20th Century

2009-09-21T12:14:00.000-07:00

Text and short video on Woodrow Wilson's stroke.

Political scientist Wilson reflects on the presidency.

The underrated Calvin Coolidge made the first presidential speech on sound film:

Do you think Hoover was a great media president?

On Today's Media Blitz

2009-09-21T00:32:00.000-07:00

So, the President's "full Ginsburg" coincides with our readings of the Roosevelt and Wilson Presidencies.

The book emphasizes Roosevelt's relationship with the Press and his ability to utilize newspapers and magazines to pass his agenda (The Hepburn Act in particular). Milkis and Nelson state "The rise of the rhetorical presidency that began during the Roosevelt administration went hand in hand with an expansion of the executive's responsibility to guide the formation of public policy." They further emphasize Wilson's rhetorical capabilities, concluding "Henceforth presidents would be expected to articulate a vision of the future and guide the nation toward fulfilling it."

And so the President's media blitz today - hitting 4 of the 5 major Sunday morning talk shows (skipping FOX for Univision) - is as good an example as any of how Roosevelt's relationship with the Press and Wilson's use of oratory have shaped the Modern President.

But I doubt the President's efforts will have much effect. As we discussed the other day, few tune into the talk shows or Congressional addresses. If you're singing to the choir, you're not getting anyone else to stand up.

And so the question those Presidents answered - How do I reach the people with my policy message? - must have a much different answer now. Perhaps it's impossible for the President to reach the majority of Americans. While New Media campaigns work for GOTV, I question their merits in political persuasion.

Furthermore, some see the "full Ginsburg" (doesn't that sound like a potentially amazing tie knot?) as demeaning of the President. Peggy Noonan described Obama's media saturation as "boorish." And just glancing over Politico's home-page, where there are about 10 different headlines pertaining to the President ("Obama 'skeptical' about more troops," "Obama: Health Plan 'not radical'," "Job numbers bleak, says Obama," "Obama hedges on immigration timeline," "Obama Punts on ACORN Funding," "Obama: Calming 'paranoid' Russians," etc.), perhaps she's right. Perhaps the President is diluting his message by saturating the market.

But at the same time we can at least recognize his pursuit of a TR/Wilson media bump in his attempt to pass health care. And while I would bet large sums of money the President's numbers don't change in any meaningful way, I would argue it is his prerogative to see how he can preach beyond the choir. But with 100-channel cable and NFL Sunday, I doubt anything got through.

How LBJ Got Congress to Pass Medicare

2009-09-18T12:48:00.001-07:00

Watch CBS Videos Online

The Civil War and After

2009-09-16T11:58:00.001-07:00

Civil War timeline

Between 1876 and 1892, no president won a majority of the popular vote:

1876 Hayes........... 48.0*
1880 Garfield........48.3
1884 Cleveland.....48.5
1888 Harrison.......47.8*
1892 Cleveland......46.1

*Won fewer popular votes than his main opponent.

Personalities and Feuds

2009-09-15T09:33:00.000-07:00

In class yesterday, we discussed the political impact of personal conflicts and long memories. For instance, Bill Clinton's endorsement of Gavin Newsom in part reflects his bitter 1992 contest with Jerry Brown:

http://www.epicjourney2008.com/2009/09/clinton-newsom-and-brown.html

Brown played rough on other issues as well. From the New York Times (March 23, 1992):

"Mr. Clinton is presenting himself as the friend of the Afro-American community," Mr. Brown told the congregation of the Memorial Baptist Church on West 115th Street as he stood before a lighted cross. "Well, even George Bush wouldn't dare play golf at an all-white golf club."
Mr. Clinton, who has been winning more than half of the black vote in the primaries, has conceded that it was wrong for him to play golf a few times a year for several years at a whites-only club in Little Rock, Ark., and has vowed not to do it again.
Mr. Brown said that unlike most states, Arkansas does not have a state civil rights statute. He also said that in the Georgia primary campaign Mr. Clinton appeared in a newspaper photograph, standing in a prison before a group of inmates, all of them black."What's the message of that?" Mr. Brown asked the congregation, which interrupted with applause and shouts of "yes!" and "amen!" "He's saying: 'We have them under control, folks. Don't worry.' "
Party leaders give Mr. Brown little chance of winning the nomination, fearing his only role now could be to weaken Mr. Clinton and thereby help President Bush.
Mr. Brown said in an interview that he resented such talk, adding: "What is this, the Politburo? There is only the candidate picked by the power structure?"
"I'm not the spoiler," he continued. "Slick Willie's the spoiler. If he gets the nomination, he's going to ruin the whole Democratic Party."

Early 19th Century Presidency

2009-09-14T12:49:00.001-07:00

If you think that the president got rough treatment...

Attack ad

War of 1812

Look here for maps showing the territorial growth of the United States.

The Presidential Stare Down

2009-09-10T08:44:00.000-07:00

So last night was the President's health care speech. While I still need time to digest it and think about its merits, one certainty from last night is that Rep. Wilson (R-SC) made a gaffe and got the most intense Presidential stare down I've ever seen.

In related news, his opponent raised $100,000 last night.

Modern Take on an American God

2009-09-09T17:09:00.000-07:00

In light of today's discussion on America's reverence of George Washington, I thought that this video would serve as a modern incarnation of the cherry tree myth. Instead of chopping down trees, though, here he flies on rainbows. This video is all true facts about the man.

Warning: strong language and images...if you're manly enough to handle them, like Washington was.

The Presidential Libraries

2009-09-09T08:49:00.000-07:00

We have two Presidential Libraries in Southern California!

The Nixon Library is located in Yorba Linda and the Reagan is in Simi Valley.

May I suggest either an official or unofficial class trip to one or both of these?

As an FYI from the Claremont Republicans:

"This Sunday former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough who now hosts MSNBC's Morning Joe will be at the Reagan Library to tape Morning Joe."

President's Inspiring Words to America's Students

2009-09-09T08:42:00.000-07:00

** I tried to do this as a comment to the previous post but was unsuccessful**

If you are a words person and would like to read the script for the President's Education speech, that was made available online the day before. How often does the President release his remarks ahead of time?

I was particularly fascinated by the other resources and the menu of classroom activities made available in the weeks before the speech, as well.

The President's Education Speech

2009-09-08T19:30:00.001-07:00

So today was the back to school address.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

I read it yesterday and am a fan. Even GOP leaders like it (Newt Gingrich approves, the Florida GOP chair who last week denounced the speech as an opportunity for the President to advance Socialism said he would show it to his kids...). Yet controversy surrounds the speech.

Going in folks were worried about accompanying lesson plans and political messages. Those concerns were dealt with.

Going out, more conservative outlets mention that in 1991 Democrats ordered the GAO to investigate Bush 41's education speech for ethics violations. I was disappointed to find no accompanying text or video, but digging through C-SPAN I discovered it.

Letting slide the video quality and awkward presentation/speaking style, the speech was extremely similar to Obama's. No policy initiatives were pushed and no political agenda was forwarded. The school Bush 41 praised was even a public school. So my question is why were Democrats so up in arms?

My Congressman, Jim Himes (probably better known as the guy who ousted Republicans from New England rather than on his personal merits) wrote an article in our local paper about the speech and decision by some schools not to show it. He writes

Let's set aside what seems to be a complete absence of respect for the office of the President...

But I'd rather not set that aside. There is some grandeur associated with the office, some implicit respect people should have for the institution if not for the man. Like we said yesterday, the President is unique partly because he is head of State and head of Government. Obviously using one to buttress the other is possible, and giving such a broadly acclaimed and non-partisan speech leading into tomorrow's Health Care speech and the subsequent polling seems cagey. Still, a nation's leader is the face of the nation. There's something grand there.

Moving forward, I wonder how much the President's numbers tic upwards and if giving this speech before the Health Care speech might be problematic - if approval numbers rise, some could argue it was due to the former rather than the latter. One could just look at the Health Care questions, but polling on that issue is so tricky and variable on wording that it doesn't show much.

At the end of the night I'm reading Washington's First Inaugural. Given the events of the day, this part struck me:

I behold the surest pledges that as on one side no local prejudices or attachments, no separate views nor party animosities, will misdirect the comprehensive and equal eye which ought to watch over this great assemblage of communities and interests, so, on another, that the foundation of our national policy will be laid in the pure and immutable principles of private morality, and the preeminence of free government be exemplified by all the attributes which can win the affections of its citizens and command the respect of the world.

And while politics and partisanship will play out during the legislative session, at least in these education speeches I see Washington's Executive vision.

The Presidency: A First Look

2009-09-07T12:35:00.000-07:00

Article II of the Constitution

The oath, sort of:

The White House today.

The End

2008-12-10T12:52:00.000-08:00

National Security (continued) and Transition

2008-12-08T10:54:00.000-08:00

Nelson labels Bush's argument on preemptive war as "The Bush Doctrine." Actually, four different ideas have come under that label.

Nelson also equates "preemptive" and "preventive" war. (p. 298). Many have tried to draw a distinction. According to a RAND report:

"Reduced to its essence, a preemptive attack is one that is launched based on the expectation than the adversary is about to attack, and that striking first will be better than being attacked.
...
"Preventive attacks have much in common with preemptive ones, but they are launched in response to less immediate threats. Both types of attack are alternatives to waiting for an expected enemy blow to fall, but preventive attack is motivated not by the desire to strike first rather than second, but by the desire to fight sooner rather than later."

More Gibson interview, on Iraq (first two minutes):

Timing and the Honeymoon:

"Change" we can believe in?

2008-12-08T10:03:00.000-08:00

Barack Obama spent much time on the campaign trail calling for "change." As it turns out, "change" has a lot of familiar faces. Many liberal ideologues are upset.

New LBJ Tapes!

2008-12-05T07:07:00.001-08:00

Foreign Policy: The Bush Years

2008-12-03T12:47:00.000-08:00

President Bush reflects (start at 4:00):

President Bush the elder launches Desert Storm:

Powell had such influence during the Gulf War because of Goldwater-Nichols.

We went into Afghanistan because of 9/11. Why did the intelligence community fail to foresee or prevent it? From the report of the 9/11 commission:

Commenting on Pearl Harbor,Roberta Wohlstetter found it "much easier after the event to sort the relevant from the irrelevant signals.After the event,of course, a signal is always crystal clear; we can now see what disaster it was signaling since the disaster has occurred. But before the event it is obscure and pregnant with conflicting meanings."...With that caution in mind,we asked ourselves, before we judged others,whether the insights that seem apparent now would really have been meaningful at the time, given the limits of what people then could reasonably
have known or done. We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures in:

imagination (see bin Laden memo)
policy (see NBC report)
capabilities (see Washington Post on translators)
and management (see map of intelligence community)

Faulty intelligence also affected Iraq policy, as the WMD Commission concluded.

In the fall of 2007, President Bush responded to the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran (full transcript here):

QUESTION: My question, sir, is are you feeling troubled about your standing here today about perhaps facing a credibility gap with the American people?
PRESIDENT: No. I'm feeling pretty spirited -- pretty good about life. And I made the decision to come before you so I could explain the NIE. And I have said Iran is dangerous. And the NIE doesn't do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary. I'm using this NIE as an pportunity to continue to rally our colleagues and allies. The NIE makes it clear that the strategy we have used in the past is effective.

.
Chris Matthews, the great constitutional scholar, on Hamdan:

Foreign Policy & National Security

2008-12-01T12:21:00.000-08:00

As we approach the end of the course, think back on two familiar quotations:

“Frequent war and constant apprehension, which require a state of as constant preparation, will infallibly produce [standing armies]. It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority.” -- Alexander Hamilton, Federalist 8.
"If the Union’s existence were constantly menaced, and if its great interests were continually interwoven with those of other powerful nations, one would see the prestige of the executive growing, because of what was expected from it and of what it did."-- Tocqueville, Democracy in America

JFK taped meetings on the Cuban Missile Crisis. In October 1962, JFK discussed the Cuban Missile Crisis on national TV.

As you reflect on JFK's decisionmaking, think about Peter Drucker's dictum: “The first rule in decision-making is that one does not make a decision without disagreement.”

A couple of years later, LBJ dealt with the Gulf of Tonkin.Bad intelligence contributed to the US reaction in the Gulf of Tonkin -- as Robert McNamara later acknowledged.

It also led to other problems in future decades. One "remedy" has been the reorganization of the intelligence community.

The Presidency and the Movies

2008-11-26T11:49:00.000-08:00

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

Seven Days in May (military coup)
Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)

Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Economic Policy

2008-11-24T13:00:00.000-08:00

By perfect coincidence, President-elect Obama today announced his economic policy team.

Some graphs and data on economic policy.

How did we get to the current crisis:

Crisis as a Policy Window

2008-11-21T08:47:00.000-08:00

Just as we were discussing the role of crisis as a "policy window," The Wall Street Journal confirmed the point:

Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, speaking to a Wall Street Journal conclave of business leaders Tuesday, said the economic crisis facing the country is "an opportunity to do things you could not do before."

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste," Mr. Emanuel said.
Obama advisers said difficult times necessitate extraordinary measures. "We are in the midst of a massive reorganization right now in autos but also other areas as well -- finance, information technology. All of this flows into...the new green energy economy we are living in, albeit in an embryonic stage," said former Rep. David Bonior, an Obama economic adviser and proponent of a more interventionist industrial policy in the 1980s. Asked if this was the industrial policy of the incoming Obama administration, he replied: "The answer is yes."

Civil Rights and Domestic Policy

2008-11-19T11:18:00.000-08:00

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:

RFK on a future black president:

LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
Estimation
Selection
Implementation
Evaluation
Termination

More on the Bubble (with obligatory LBJ anecdote!)

2008-11-18T20:33:00.000-08:00

From the Huffington Post.

President-elect Obama is still adjusting to life with the Secret Service and the loss of privacy that it entails. When Steve Croft spoke with him on Sunday's "60 Minutes," Obama said that "there are things we're still not adjusted to...like not being able to take a walk. That's something that I'll never get used to is loss of anonymity. And this is not a complaint, this is part of what you sign up for, but being able to just wander around the neighborhood. I can't go to my old barbershop now. I've got to have my barber come to some undisclosed location to cut my hair. It's the small routines of life that keep you connected. Some of those are being lost."

Newsweek just did a piece on what it's like to live with the Secret Service in tow, and among other fun facts, was this charming anecdote:

Presidents and their families quickly learn that even trips to the bathroom come with security precautions. Lyndon Johnson, never very subtle, had perhaps the most direct way of expressing his frustration. Once, after pulling his car over to the side of the road for a pit stop, agents quickly surrounded him as he relieved himself. A sudden breeze prompted one agent to alert the president, "Sir, you're pissing on my leg." Johnson, not budging, replied, "I know. That's my prerogative."
Watch a clip of the Obama interview and see a slideshow of Obama's life with the Secret Service

The President and the Courts

2008-11-17T11:22:00.000-08:00

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

See the story behind Justice Fortas.
See the story behind Justice O'Connor.
Now President Obama may get to shape the Court:

(With this video, start at about 2:40)

The Court can check the executive:

The Bubble

2008-11-16T07:23:00.000-08:00

President-elect Obama is learning that every president works within a "bubble."

The New York Times explains why he must soon go offline:

Sorry, Mr. President. Please surrender your BlackBerry.
Those are seven words President-elect Barack Obama is dreading but expecting to hear, friends and advisers say, when he takes office in 65 days.
For years, like legions of other professionals, Mr. Obama has been all but addicted to his BlackBerry. The device has rarely been far from his side — on most days, it was fastened to his belt — to provide a singular conduit to the outside world as the bubble around him grew tighter and tighter throughout his campaign. “How about that?” Mr. Obama replied to a friend’s congratulatory e-mail message on the night of his victory.
But before he arrives at the White House, he will probably be forced to sign off. In addition to concerns about e-mail security, he faces the Presidential Records Act, which puts his correspondence in the official record and ultimately up for public review, and the threat of subpoenas. A decision has not been made on whether he could become the first e-mailing president, but aides said that seemed doubtful.

Click here for the rest of the story.

His everyday life is changing. He cannot even get a haircut in the same way as the rest of us.

But when he wanted a trim this week, the Secret Service took one look at the shop’s large plate-glass windows and the gawking tourists eager for a glimpse of the president-elect and the plan quickly changed. If Mr. Obama could no longer
come to the barber, the barber would come to him and cut his hair at a friend’s
apartment.

Click here for the rest of the story.

Remember What I Said About Being Careful?

2008-11-14T04:44:00.000-08:00

The 2008 Plum Book of administration jobs is now out.

From the New York Times:

Want a top job in the Obama administration? Only pack rats need apply, preferably those not packing controversy.
A seven-page questionnaire being sent by the office of President-elect Barack Obama to those seeking cabinet and other high-ranking posts may be the most extensive — some say invasive — application ever.
The questionnaire includes 63 requests for personal and professional records, some covering applicants’ spouses and grown children as well, that are forcing job-seekers to rummage from basements to attics, in shoe boxes, diaries and computer archives to document both their achievements and missteps.
Only the smallest details are excluded; traffic tickets carrying fines of less than $50 need not be reported, the application says. Applicants are asked whether they or anyone in their family owns a gun. They must include any e-mail that might embarrass the president-elect, along with any blog posts and links to their Facebook pages. The application also asks applicants to “please list all aliases or ‘handles’ you have used to communicate on the Internet.”

(Click here for the rest of the article.)

Click here to see a pdf of the questionnaire.

Begich now leads Stevens

2008-11-12T18:04:00.000-08:00

Relating to how the Congress will interact with Obama, it looks increasingly likely that the Senate will have at least 58 Democrats + Independents. The two unknowns in this scenario are Minnesota, which is heading into a recount and Georgia, which is going to be a runoff.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich now leads Senator Ted Stevens in the Alaskan Senate Race by a slim three votes, but if the remaining ballots break as decisively as the ballots counted today (where Begich won approximately 53.7% of the major party vote), then the election could be decided without a recount, although the rules for a recount are somewhat odd, and can be called for by the losing candidate with a $10,000 deposit.

There will be another ballot drop tonight of about 10,000 votes, and then the remaining 35,000 must be counted before next Wednesday, Nov. 19th.

Suggestions/Cabinet/Transition

2008-11-12T12:50:00.001-08:00

Thanks for your suggestions. I cannot respond to all of them in this posting, but here are a couple of key points:

Sample Papers. Some wanted model papers. If you want examples of good student writing, see the links at: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/writing.htm.
Final Exam. I shall hand out a practice final before the end of the semester. Also I encourage you to meet and organize a study guide. I do not grade on a curve, so you can only gain by cooperating with one another.

As for the vice presidency and the 25th Amendment ....

Click here for information on the Clinton cabinet and here for the Bush (43) cabinet.

Consider the criteria in Pika (p. 263):

Political experience;
Clientele or ethnic identification;
Technical expertise;

Also remember pretenure friendship.

Here is a long list of independent agencies.

Here is information and rules and executive orders.

Hoax, and Cool Story for Electoral College Junkies!

2008-11-11T04:37:00.000-08:00

1. Remember what I said about not automatically believing what you read on the Internet? Read on ....

2. From CQ Politics:

The latest Election Day contest to be decided delivered one of the smallest prizes: President-elect Barack Obama has, by a narrow margin, claimed the one electoral vote accorded to the winner of the popular vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional
District.
...

Nebraska is one of just two states — Maine is the other — that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Each state accords two votes to the statewide winner, and one vote apiece to the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts. Obama’s win for one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes is, however, the first time there has been a split decision. And it occurred because of Obama’s strategy of campaigning heavily in places his campaign viewed as winnable, even though many had been Republican presidential strongholds for years.

Click here for the full story.

The Real West Wing

2008-11-10T12:29:00.000-08:00

West Wing map

White House tours

Executive Office of the President

White House salaries

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

The Transition

2008-11-07T07:13:00.000-08:00

Here are some items on presidential transitions, which we shall discuss on Wednesday, November 12:

Stephen Hess, What Do We Do Now? A Workbook for the President-Elect (Washington: Brookings, 2008), ch. 1. at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Press/Books/2008/whatdowedonow/whatdowedonow_chapter.pdf

Terry Sullivan, "Evaluating Transition 2001," at http://whitehousetransitionproject.org/resources/briefing/NerveCenter-Ch10-6.pdf

Watch CBS Videos Online

Congress and the President

2008-11-03T12:50:00.001-08:00

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

On Monday, we stand at the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue. How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).

How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.

As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?

As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Fearless Forecast!

2008-11-03T10:59:00.000-08:00

Here is my guess as to the most likely outcome of the election. My assumption is that current polls are roughly accurate.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%

Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of

Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina

Bottom line: Obama wins 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.

In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!

In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%

Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus

Missouri
Indiana
Montana
North Dakota
Georgia
Arizona
West Virginia
Arkansas

Bottom line: Obama wins 417 electoral votes to McCain's 121.

In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.

In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!

Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%

Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states

Colorado
Nevada
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Bottom line: McCain gets 274 electoral votes to Obama's 264. In this case, Democrats would immediately challenge vote totals in key states, and the Obama campaign would try to get at least six McCain electors to flip.

In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.