Fearless Forecast!

Here is my guess as to the most likely outcome of the election. My assumption is that current polls are roughly accurate.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%

Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of

• Pennsylvania
• New Mexico
• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina

Bottom line: Obama wins 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.

In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
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Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!

In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%

Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus

• Missouri
• Indiana
• Montana
• North Dakota
• Georgia
• Arizona
• West Virginia
• Arkansas

Bottom line: Obama wins 417 electoral votes to McCain's 121.

In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.

In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
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Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!

Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%

Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states

• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina
• Missouri

Bottom line: McCain gets 274 electoral votes to Obama's 264. In this case, Democrats would immediately challenge vote totals in key states, and the Obama campaign would try to get at least six McCain electors to flip.

In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.