For Monday, read Edwards ch. 12. (slightly abbreviated class on Wed.)
What is a mandate (Edwards 377-378)
Coattails work when POTUS helps pull party members over the finish line: 1932, 1964, 1980. But there are very few marginal members anymore.
And a problem for bipartisan outreach. Reagan passed his program with help from Southern Democrats in Reagan districts. But there are few split districts or states anymore:
The midterm slump (Edwards 371-373)
Pressuring copartisans:
FDR 1938 "purge" (start at 4:00) -- not very successful
Overt threats and retribution.
1. Republicans who lost primaries after opposing Trump U.S. House
| Member | State | Year | Reason / Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Cheney | Wyoming | 2022 | Lost GOP primary after voting to impeach Trump and serving as vice-chair of the Jan. 6 committee. |
| Jaime Herrera Beutler | Washington | 2022 | Voted to impeach Trump; eliminated in the 2022 “jungle” primary amid pro-Trump challenges. |
| Tom Rice | South Carolina | 2022 | Voted to impeach Trump; defeated by Trump-backed challenger Russell Fry. |
| Peter Meijer | Michigan | 2022 | Voted to impeach Trump; defeated in GOP primary by Trump-backed John Gibbs. |
| Mark Sanford | South Carolina | 2018 | Prominent Trump critic; lost primary to Trump-endorsed challenger Katie Arrington. |
| Bob Good | Virginia | 2024 | Initially backed Ron DeSantis instead of Trump in the presidential primary and lost to Trump-endorsed challenger John McGuire. |
2. Republicans who retired rather than run again amid conflict with Trump
U.S. House
| Member | State | Year | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Kinzinger | Illinois | 2022 | One of two Republicans on the Jan. 6 committee; chose not to seek reelection. |
| Anthony Gonzalez | Ohio | 2022 | Voted to impeach Trump; announced retirement citing political toxicity and threats. |
| Fred Upton | Michigan | 2022 | Impeachment vote; retired after intense pro-Trump backlash. |
| John Katko | New York | 2022 | Impeachment vote; retired amid expected Trump-aligned primary challenge. |
| Paul Ryan | Wisconsin | 2018 | As Speaker, clashed with Trump on several issues and chose to retire rather than seek reelection. |
U.S. Senate
| Member | State | Year | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Flake | Arizona | 2018 | Frequent Trump critic; announced retirement saying the party was abandoning conservative principles. |
| Bob Corker | Tennessee | 2018 | Openly clashed with Trump and retired rather than run again. |
| Ben Sasse | Nebraska | 2022 | Long-time Trump critic; left the Senate to become president of the University of Florida. |
| Thom Tillis | North Carolina | 2026 | Announced retirement after conflict with Trump and backlash from MAGA activists. |
Bargainng
LBJ wants Rep. Wayne Hays (D-OH) to vote for a farm bill. Hays wants the Department of Agriculture action on freight rates.
Civil Rights
Why did LBJ want it?
The 1957 bill and "the long game"
- Civil rights strategy
- LBJ presidential strategy
PolicyWindow for 1964
- March on Washington
- Birmingham killings
- JFK assassination
The outside game
- Working the civil rights establishment
- Working the press (Kay Graham, about 45% through)
The inside game
- Working via AG Kennedy (whom he hated)
- Working with the GOP House leader
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