Republicans, Immigration, and the General Election

The BBC recently reported that Hispanics registered to vote favor Democrats over Republicans 57% to 23%. This is in contrast to the 2004 election, when Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote. Bush's 2004 campaign ran ads in Spanish criticizing Kerry's social views and drew many socially conservative Hispanics into the Republican camp. It appears that Hispanics, however, have abandoned the GOP, given the intensity of the immigration debate. Most Republican candidates during the recent Univision debate found themselves in a tight spot, trying not to alienate Hispanic voters but at the same time attempting to remain true to their conservative base. It will be interesting to see whether the lack of Hispanic turnout for the GOP will have a measurable effect on Republican performance in the general election. Their large presence in some swing states, such as Florida, indicates that it may.