Relating to how the Congress will interact with Obama, it looks increasingly likely that the Senate will have at least 58 Democrats + Independents. The two unknowns in this scenario are Minnesota, which is heading into a recount and Georgia, which is going to be a runoff.
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich now leads Senator Ted Stevens in the Alaskan Senate Race by a slim three votes, but if the remaining ballots break as decisively as the ballots counted today (where Begich won approximately 53.7% of the major party vote), then the election could be decided without a recount, although the rules for a recount are somewhat odd, and can be called for by the losing candidate with a $10,000 deposit.
There will be another ballot drop tonight of about 10,000 votes, and then the remaining 35,000 must be counted before next Wednesday, Nov. 19th.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Suggestions/Cabinet/Transition
Thanks for your suggestions. I cannot respond to all of them in this posting, but here are a couple of key points:
- Sample Papers. Some wanted model papers. If you want examples of good student writing, see the links at: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/writing.htm.
- Final Exam. I shall hand out a practice final before the end of the semester. Also I encourage you to meet and organize a study guide. I do not grade on a curve, so you can only gain by cooperating with one another.
As for the vice presidency and the 25th Amendment ....
Click here for information on the Clinton cabinet and here for the Bush (43) cabinet.
Consider the criteria in Pika (p. 263):
- Political experience;
- Clientele or ethnic identification;
- Technical expertise;
Also remember pretenure friendship.
Here is a long list of independent agencies.
Here is information and rules and executive orders.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Hoax, and Cool Story for Electoral College Junkies!
1. Remember what I said about not automatically believing what you read on the Internet? Read on ....
2. From CQ Politics:
2. From CQ Politics:
The latest Election Day contest to be decided delivered one of the smallest prizes: President-elect Barack Obama has, by a narrow margin, claimed the one electoral vote accorded to the winner of the popular vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional
District.
...
Nebraska is one of just two states — Maine is the other — that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Each state accords two votes to the statewide winner, and one vote apiece to the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts. Obama’s win for one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes is, however, the first time there has been a split decision. And it occurred because of Obama’s strategy of campaigning heavily in places his campaign viewed as winnable, even though many had been Republican presidential strongholds for years.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Real West Wing
Executive Office of the President
All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.
Friday, November 7, 2008
The Transition
Here are some items on presidential transitions, which we shall discuss on Wednesday, November 12:
Watch CBS Videos Online
Stephen Hess, What Do We Do Now? A Workbook for the President-Elect (Washington: Brookings, 2008), ch. 1. at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Press/Books/2008/whatdowedonow/whatdowedonow_chapter.pdf
Terry Sullivan, "Evaluating Transition 2001," at http://whitehousetransitionproject.org/resources/briefing/NerveCenter-Ch10-6.pdfWatch CBS Videos Online
Monday, November 3, 2008
Congress and the President
This week, we look at relations between the branches.
On Monday, we stand at the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue. How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).
How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.
As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?
As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?
On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.
On Monday, we stand at the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue. How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).
How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.
As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?
As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?
On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.
Fearless Forecast!
Here is my guess as to the most likely outcome of the election. My assumption is that current polls are roughly accurate.
Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%
Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of
In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!
In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.
Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%
Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus
In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.
In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!
Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:
Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%
Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states
In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.
In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.
Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%
Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of
- Pennsylvania
- New Mexico
- Colorado
- Nevada
- Virginia
- Ohio
- Florida
- North Carolina
Bottom line: Obama wins 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.
In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!
In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.
Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%
Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus
- Missouri
- Indiana
- Montana
- North Dakota
- Georgia
- Arizona
- West Virginia
- Arkansas
In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.
In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!
Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:
Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%
Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states
- Colorado
- Nevada
- Virginia
- Ohio
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Missouri
In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.
In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.
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