The End

Papers due tonight 11:50 pm.

Ex-presidents 

Hoover

Truman

Nixon (start at 2:20)

Carter

Takeaways:  

Presidents are products of their predecessors and precedents

• Laws, institutions, policies
• Examples to emulate
• Cautionary tales to avoid

Presidents are products of their time

• Backgrounds shape attitudes
• Americans chose certain kinds at certain times
• Gender
• Race and ethnicity
• Religion
• Education and social class
• Military service
• Other personal qualities

WHO'S NEXT?

Additional Presidential Topics

CANNOT MAKE STUDENT HOUR TODAY (Monday) BUT WILL BE AVAILABLE VIA ZOOM AFTER 3 PM TODAY AND ALL DAY TOMORROW (Tuesday).  EMAIL ME TO SET UP A TIME.

On Wednesday, we will consider one thing we missed:  ex-presidents.  A short easy read: Barbara Bradley Hagerty, "Can an Ex-President Be Happy?" The Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2017.

Revisit 2/26 on campaign finance tricks

Economic policy:  chart book

Presidents convene people to reach extralegal solutions

Presidential directives

• Forms of presidential directives
• Obama's "pen and phone"
• Signing statements

The 1974 TV movie The Missiles of October:

• 26:30 deliberations of the ExComm
• 45:00 role of the press secretary

Media and Foreign Influence

• Placing op-eds
• Open, disclosed ads
• Covert buys of social media 
• Influencers
• Payload content: Smart Banana (start around 9:00)
• State-run networks:  RT (epic fail)
• OAN-Sputnik connection

Flattering interviewees (an actual email to yours truly):

Dear John , 

I hope all is well. 

 I would like to introduce myself again. I would  like to introduce myself.  My name is XXX  I’m an international producer for Russian Television -  Channel One  that based in Moscow, Russia. We also have offices in New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles.  “Chanel One” is a number one broadcasting company in Russia and also very popular in Russian Community around the world.  We have over 250 million audience in 190 Countries.  Channel One is as big in Russia as CNN and FOX in US.

We have been working on our weekly news show "Sunday times" about Donald Trump's meeting with Putin. Our network's CEO Mr. Ernst asked me to contact you and include you in our show. He really would like to have you as a part of our show. You opinion is very important for Russian audience.
...

You are very well known in Russia. Russian politicians and regular people look up to you as a peer where they watch your interviews and follow you on social media for inspiring messages. It would be such an honor and  pleasure to meet you in person and film an interview with you. 

The most interesting presidential movie you never heard of:  Gabriel Over the White House (1933)

Domestic Policy II: Fiscal Policy

 

• Class will adjourn at noon for student experience surveys.
• Questions on paper?
• Please remember your last write-ups this week.  By tomorrow night, tell me what do you want to talk about next week. What topics do you want to revisit?  Will assign some short 
• readings accordingly.

What is monetary policy?  Who determines monetary policy?

White House staff:  the only staff that consistently matters is OMB

• Legislative clearance and SAPs
• Regulatory review: cost-benefit analysis.  The Federal Register and rules. 

• From 10,000 Commandments

• OMB develops the annual budget

Terms

• Authorization
• Budget Authority
• Outlay
• Continuing resolutions

"The Budget Process" and key documents:

• The president's budget
• CBO reports

• Budget Authority
• Outlay
• Continuing resolutions

"The Budget Process" and key documents:

• The president's budget
• CBO reports

• Budget Authority
• Outlay
• Continuing resolutions

"The Budget Process" and key documents:

• The president's budget
• CBO reports

Outlays -- Where the money goes

Mandatory spending

Budget tables:  function, subfunction, agency

Debt as share of GDP

Domestic Policy I: Surprise, Uncertainty, and Emergency

• Class will adjourn at 11:55
• Questions on paper?
• Please remember your last write-ups this week.
• Student experience surveys.
• Wednesday, fiscal policy
• Presidential safety

Presidential assassinations and attempts

Year	Person	Status at Time	Details
1835	Andrew Jackson	President	Richard Lawrence fired two pistols at close range — both misfired. Jackson beat him with his cane.
1865 ✝	Abraham Lincoln	President	Shot by John Wilkes Booth at Ford's Theatre; died the following morning.
1881 ✝	James Garfield	President	Shot by Charles Guiteau at a Washington train station; died 11 weeks later from infection.
1901 ✝	William McKinley	President	Shot by Leon Czolgosz at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, NY; died 8 days later.  Led to permanent Secret Service protection
1912	Theodore Roosevelt	Candidate (Progressive)	Shot in the chest while campaigning. Folded papers and a metal glasses case in his pocket blunted the bullet's impact and he was not seriously hurt. John Schrank was arrested and spent the remainder of his life in mental hospitals.  Roosevelt delivered his speech before seeking treatment.
1933	Franklin D. Roosevelt	President-elect	Giuseppe Zangara fired five shots in Miami; FDR was unharmed but Chicago mayor Anton Cermak was killed.
1950	Harry Truman	President	Two Puerto Rican nationalists stormed Blair House; Griselio Torresola and a guard were killed in the gunfight.
1963 ✝	John F. Kennedy	President	Shot by Lee Harvey Oswald in Dallas; died shortly after.
1968 ✝	Robert F. Kennedy	Candidate (Democratic)	Kennedy was seeking the Democratic presidential nomination when he was killed at a Los Angeles hotel moments after giving his victory speech for winning the 1968 California primary. Sirhan Sirhan was convicted of first-degree murder and sentenced to death, later commuted to life in prison. PBS
1972	George Wallace	Candidate (Democratic)	Wallace gave a campaign speech at the Laurel Shopping Center when 21-year-old Arthur Bremer shot him five times (start video around1:40), 9starincluding in the abdomen and chest, paralyzing him from the waist down.  Although Wallace went on to win the Maryland primary, the injuries effectively ended his presidential campaign.
1975	Gerald Ford	President	Two separate attempts within 17 days — Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme (Sept. 5, Sacramento) and Sara Jane Moore (Sept. 22, San Francisco). Both failed.
1981	Ronald Reagan	President	Shot by John Hinckley Jr. outside the Washington Hilton; survived after emergency surgery. Press secretary James Brady was severely wounded.
1994	Bill Clinton	President	Francisco Duran fired 29 rounds at the White House facade; Clinton was inside and unharmed.
2005	George W. Bush	President	Vladimir Arutyunian threw a live grenade at Bush during a speech in Tbilisi, Georgia — it failed to detonate.
Jul 2024 ✝	Donald Trump	Candidate (Republican)	Thomas Crooks fired from a nearby rooftop at a Butler, PA rally. Trump was grazed in the ear; one attendee, Corey Comperatore, was killed. Crooks was shot dead by Secret Service.
Sep 2024	Donald Trump	Candidate (Republican)	Ryan Wesley Routh hid for nearly 12 hours in shrubbery outside Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach with an SKS rifle. Spotted by Secret Service before Trump came into range; Routh fled and was captured. Sentenced to life in prison in February 2026.
Feb 2026	Donald Trump	President	Austin Tucker Martin, 21, drove into the Mar-a-Lago security perimeter with a gas can and shotgun. Shot and killed by Secret Service; Trump was in Washington at the time.
Apr 2026	Donald Trump	President	Gunshots were heard while Trump was attending the White House Correspondents' Dinner. The Secret Service evacuated Trump, Melania, Vice President JD Vance, and several Cabinet members. A suspect was apprehended at the scene.

The Line of Succession

The U.S. Constitution and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 outline the presidential line of succession. The line of succession of cabinet officers is in the order of their agencies’ creation

1. Vice President
2. Speaker of the House
3. President Pro Tempore of the Senate
4. Secretary of State
5. Secretary of the Treasury
6. Secretary of Defense
7. Attorney General
8. Secretary of the Interior
9. Secretary of Agriculture
10. Secretary of Commerce
11. Secretary of Labor
12. Secretary of Health and Human Services
13. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
14. Secretary of Transportation
15. Secretary of Energy
16. Secretary of Education
17. Secretary of Veterans Affairs
18. Secretary of Homeland Security

Historical examples of presidents dealing with domestic surprise and uncertainty.  But unlike foreign and military policy, domestic issues present the president with limited authority and competing power structures.  George H.W. Bush wrote in his diary: "There’s a story in one of the papers that I am more comfortable with foreign affairs, and that is absolutely true. Because I don’t like the deficiencies of the domestic, political scene. I hate the posturing on both sides."

Bush and Katrina -- Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job and a contrarian view

Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee:

• "Predictable Surprise": The storm's severity and the failure of levees were foreseen, yet officials remained complacent in preparation.
• Systemic Failure: The disaster was not limited to one agency, but a failure of local, state, and federal leadership to adequately execute response plans.
• Failure of Initiative: Officials failed to take charge, often waiting for directions, which rendered first responders overwhelmed and ineffective.
• Communications and Command Breakdown: Widespread loss of communication infrastructure and lack of clear command structures hampered coordination

COVID (Edwards 443-444) -- most policy responses were at the state and local level.

Trump COVID-19 response timeline (2020)

Jan 3, 2020 Trump administration briefed on Wuhan outbreak

Jan 29, 2020 White House Coronavirus Task Force formed

Jan 31, 2020 Travel restrictions on China announced

Feb 2, 2020 "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China"

Feb 7, 2020 Woodward tape: "This is deadly stuff"

Woodward interview

Feb 26, 2020 "It's a little like the regular flu" — White House press conference, at 2:20

Feb 28, 2020 "This is their new hoax" — South Carolina rally

Mar 13, 2020 National emergency declared; $50 billion unlocked

Mar 18, 2020 Families First Coronavirus Response Act signed

Legislation

Mar 27, 2020 CARES Act signed — $2.2 trillion stimulus

Legislation

Apr 5, 2020 Woodward tape: Realization of severity — "When I saw how many were dying"

Apr 14, 2020 WHO funding halted pending review

May 15, 2020 Operation Warp Speed launched:  will spend $18 billion on parallel processing of vaccines.

Jun 20, 2020 Tulsa rally: Trump said he ordered testing slowdown

Jul 21, 2020 Woodward tape: "The virus has nothing to do with me"

Aug 23, 2020 Emergency authorization for convalescent plasma — amid controversy

Oct 2, 2020 Trump tests positive for COVID-19; hospitalized at Walter Reed

Dec 11–18, 2020 Pfizer and Moderna vaccines receive emergency authorization

Fog of War

 The Gulf of Tonkin

BULLETIN

 BREAKING NEWS — 11:32 AM PT

U.S. Indo-Pacific Command confirms that a U.S. Navy surveillance drone operating in international airspace approximately 70 miles east of Taiwan has been downed by an unidentified missile system.

Chinese state media claims the drone “violated Chinese sovereign airspace” and says the response was “defensive and appropriate.”

The Pentagon has not confirmed Chinese responsibility but states the incident is “under urgent review.”

 Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reports increased PLA naval activity near the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

iNTELLIGENCE CABLE

 TOP SECRET // EYES ONLY — NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL BRIEFING

U.S. intelligence indicates significant divisions within Taiwan’s leadership.

• A senior faction within Taiwan’s ruling coalition is quietly advocating delayed resistance in the event of a Chinese blockade, fearing economic collapse.
• Opposition leaders are signaling openness to emergency negotiations with Beijing to avoid conflict.

Intercepts suggest Beijing is aware of these divisions and may accelerate pressure operations to exploit them.