Domestic Policy I: Surprise, Uncertainty, and Emergency

• Questions on paper?
• Please remember your last write-ups this week.
• Student experience surveys coming up.
• Wednesday, fiscal policy
• Presidential safety

Presidential assassinations and attempts

Year	Person	Status at Time	Details
1835	Andrew Jackson	President	Richard Lawrence fired two pistols at close range — both misfired. Jackson beat him with his cane.
1865 ✝	Abraham Lincoln	President	Shot by John Wilkes Booth at Ford's Theatre; died the following morning.
1881 ✝	James Garfield	President	Shot by Charles Guiteau at a Washington train station; died 11 weeks later from infection.
1901 ✝	William McKinley	President	Shot by Leon Czolgosz at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, NY; died 8 days later.  Led to permanent Secret Service protection
1912	Theodore Roosevelt	Candidate (Progressive)	Shot in the chest while campaigning. Folded papers and a metal glasses case in his pocket blunted the bullet's impact and he was not seriously hurt. John Schrank was arrested and spent the remainder of his life in mental hospitals.  Roosevelt delivered his speech before seeking treatment.
1933	Franklin D. Roosevelt	President-elect	Giuseppe Zangara fired five shots in Miami; FDR was unharmed but Chicago mayor Anton Cermak was killed.
1950	Harry Truman	President	Two Puerto Rican nationalists stormed Blair House; Griselio Torresola and a guard were killed in the gunfight.
1963 ✝	John F. Kennedy	President	Shot by Lee Harvey Oswald in Dallas; died shortly after.
1968 ✝	Robert F. Kennedy	Candidate (Democratic)	Kennedy was seeking the Democratic presidential nomination when he was killed at a Los Angeles hotel moments after giving his victory speech for winning the 1968 California primary. Sirhan Sirhan was convicted of first-degree murder and sentenced to death, later commuted to life in prison. PBS
1972	George Wallace	Candidate (Democratic)	Wallace gave a campaign speech at the Laurel Shopping Center when 21-year-old Arthur Bremer shot him five times (start video around1:40), 9starincluding in the abdomen and chest, paralyzing him from the waist down.  Although Wallace went on to win the Maryland primary, the injuries effectively ended his presidential campaign.
1975	Gerald Ford	President	Two separate attempts within 17 days — Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme (Sept. 5, Sacramento) and Sara Jane Moore (Sept. 22, San Francisco). Both failed.
1981	Ronald Reagan	President	Shot by John Hinckley Jr. outside the Washington Hilton; survived after emergency surgery. Press secretary James Brady was severely wounded.
1994	Bill Clinton	President	Francisco Duran fired 29 rounds at the White House facade; Clinton was inside and unharmed.
2005	George W. Bush	President	Vladimir Arutyunian threw a live grenade at Bush during a speech in Tbilisi, Georgia — it failed to detonate.
Jul 2024 ✝	Donald Trump	Candidate (Republican)	Thomas Crooks fired from a nearby rooftop at a Butler, PA rally. Trump was grazed in the ear; one attendee, Corey Comperatore, was killed. Crooks was shot dead by Secret Service.
Sep 2024	Donald Trump	Candidate (Republican)	Ryan Wesley Routh hid for nearly 12 hours in shrubbery outside Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach with an SKS rifle. Spotted by Secret Service before Trump came into range; Routh fled and was captured. Sentenced to life in prison in February 2026.
Feb 2026	Donald Trump	President	Austin Tucker Martin, 21, drove into the Mar-a-Lago security perimeter with a gas can and shotgun. Shot and killed by Secret Service; Trump was in Washington at the time.
Apr 2026	Donald Trump	President	Gunshots were heard while Trump was attending the White House Correspondents' Dinner. The Secret Service evacuated Trump, Melania, Vice President JD Vance, and several Cabinet members. A suspect was apprehended at the scene.

The Line of Succession

The U.S. Constitution and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 outline the presidential line of succession. The line of succession of cabinet officers is in the order of their agencies’ creation

1. Vice President
2. Speaker of the House
3. President Pro Tempore of the Senate
4. Secretary of State
5. Secretary of the Treasury
6. Secretary of Defense
7. Attorney General
8. Secretary of the Interior
9. Secretary of Agriculture
10. Secretary of Commerce
11. Secretary of Labor
12. Secretary of Health and Human Services
13. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
14. Secretary of Transportation
15. Secretary of Energy
16. Secretary of Education
17. Secretary of Veterans Affairs
18. Secretary of Homeland Security

Historical examples of presidents dealing with domestic surprise and uncertainty.  But unlike foreign and military policy, domestic issues present the president with limited authority and competing power structures.

Bush and Katrina -- Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job and a contrarian view

Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee:

• "Predictable Surprise": The storm's severity and the failure of levees were foreseen, yet officials remained complacent in preparation.
• Systemic Failure: The disaster was not limited to one agency, but a failure of local, state, and federal leadership to adequately execute response plans.
• Failure of Initiative: Officials failed to take charge, often waiting for directions, which rendered first responders overwhelmed and ineffective.
• Communications and Command Breakdown: Widespread loss of communication infrastructure and lack of clear command structures hampered coordination

COVID -- most policy responses were at the state and local leve.

Trump COVID-19 response timeline (2020)

Jan 3, 2020 Trump administration briefed on Wuhan outbreak

Jan 29, 2020 White House Coronavirus Task Force formed

Jan 31, 2020 Travel restrictions on China announced

Feb 2, 2020 "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China"

Feb 7, 2020 Woodward tape: "This is deadly stuff"

Woodward interview

Feb 26, 2020 "It's a little like the regular flu" — White House press conference, at 2:20

Feb 28, 2020 "This is their new hoax" — South Carolina rally

Mar 13, 2020 National emergency declared; $50 billion unlocked

Mar 18, 2020 Families First Coronavirus Response Act signed

Legislation

Mar 27, 2020 CARES Act signed — $2.2 trillion stimulus

Legislation

Apr 5, 2020 Woodward tape: Realization of severity — "When I saw how many were dying"

Apr 14, 2020 WHO funding halted pending review

May 15, 2020 Operation Warp Speed launched:  will spend $18 billion on parallel processing of vaccines.

Jun 20, 2020 Tulsa rally: Trump said he ordered testing slowdown

Jul 21, 2020 Woodward tape: "The virus has nothing to do with me"

Aug 23, 2020 Emergency authorization for convalescent plasma — amid controversy

Oct 2, 2020 Trump tests positive for COVID-19; hospitalized at Walter Reed

Dec 11–18, 2020 Pfizer and Moderna vaccines receive emergency authorization

Fog of War

 The Gulf of Tonkin

BULLETIN

 BREAKING NEWS — 11:32 AM PT

U.S. Indo-Pacific Command confirms that a U.S. Navy surveillance drone operating in international airspace approximately 70 miles east of Taiwan has been downed by an unidentified missile system.

Chinese state media claims the drone “violated Chinese sovereign airspace” and says the response was “defensive and appropriate.”

The Pentagon has not confirmed Chinese responsibility but states the incident is “under urgent review.”

 Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reports increased PLA naval activity near the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

iNTELLIGENCE CABLE

 TOP SECRET // EYES ONLY — NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL BRIEFING

U.S. intelligence indicates significant divisions within Taiwan’s leadership.

• A senior faction within Taiwan’s ruling coalition is quietly advocating delayed resistance in the event of a Chinese blockade, fearing economic collapse.
• Opposition leaders are signaling openness to emergency negotiations with Beijing to avoid conflict.

Intercepts suggest Beijing is aware of these divisions and may accelerate pressure operations to exploit them.

POSSIBLE CYBER ATTACK

 GLOBAL MARKETS ALERT — 2:15 PM ET

Major semiconductor firms, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), report temporary shutdowns of key facilities due to cyber disruptions of industrial control systems.

The Dow has dropped 1,200 points. Tech stocks are down sharply.

U.S. manufacturers warn of immediate supply chain disruptions affecting defense systems, automobiles, and consumer electronics.

Cybersecurity analysts say the attack bears “hallmarks consistent with prior Chinese state-linked operations,” though attribution remains unconfirmed.

White House statement pending.

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait

 For Monday, read Edwards ch. 13.  For the weekly writeup, explain the most important thing you learned from this week's simulations.

On Monday, we shall adjourn a little early because of an Ath event.

The United States has been carefully monitoring the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S. intelligence suggests that China is preparing for an invasion. Officials argue that the threat is so clear that the United States must either act now or risk not being able to prevent a forced Chinese takeover of Taiwan. The president has convened members of the National Security Council (NSC) for advice on whether and how to intervene.

NSC members should consider one of the following options:

• Do nothing, signaling to China that the United States will not intervene. Given the strength of the Chinese military, this option would likely result in China taking control of Taiwan. The United States could lose an important partner in the region. Moreover, U.S. allies could come to question America’s reliability and become strategically autonomous. As a result, China’s military reach and economic might could expand significantly. Chinese occupation of Taiwan would also see the collapse of a vibrant democracy. A successful invasion would force 24 million to live under the CCP’s rule. By opting not to intervene, however, the United States would avoid involvement in what could be a deadly and expensive military conflict.
• Impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on China. This option would isolate China on the world stage and stifle its economy. However, it is important for policymakers to note that such actions would have economic repercussions for the United States and China’s other trading partners as well. Such pressure could dissuade China from invading Taiwan and so avoid entangling U.S. forces in a conflict. China, however, could determine that any economic and diplomatic pain is worth it and invade Taiwan anyway.
• Position the U.S. military to defend Taiwan. This option would make it clear that the United States will defend Taiwan if China invades. The guarantee of U.S. involvement could dissuade China from attacking Taiwan. However, if China still goes forward with an invasion, the United States would find itself in a war with China.

Last Paper, Spring 2026

Choose one:

1. On Wednesday, you will undertake the Council on Foreign Relations mini-simulation “A Threat to Taiwan.” In that exercise, you have a specific role within the National Security Council or among outside advisers. In your essay, briefly explain how you performed your assigned role in the simulation, and then focus on how someone in that same role would likely act in the current administration if this crisis actually occurred. 

2. Edwards et al. finished writing the 19th edition of the textbook in 2024. Write an addendum to chapter 12, 13, or 14 explaining how events since 2024 have confirmed, disconfirmed, or complicated their analysis.

3. Write on a relevant topic of your choosing, subject to my approval and revision.

The specifications:

• Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than three pages long. I will not read past the third page.
• Whichever option you choose, draw on course readings as well as outside research into primary and scholarly sources.
• Please submit all papers in this course as Word documents, not Google docs or pdfs.
• Read Strunk & White and my stylesheet (with links to model papers). Watch my writing lecture.
• Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of the Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
• Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism and will result in severe consequences
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.
• Return essays to the Canvas dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Wednesday, May 6. (If you have trouble with Canvas, simply email it to me as an attached file.) I reserve the right to dock papers one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.