Fog of War

 The Gulf of Tonkin

BULLETIN

 BREAKING NEWS — 11:32 AM PT

U.S. Indo-Pacific Command confirms that a U.S. Navy surveillance drone operating in international airspace approximately 70 miles east of Taiwan has been downed by an unidentified missile system.

Chinese state media claims the drone “violated Chinese sovereign airspace” and says the response was “defensive and appropriate.”

The Pentagon has not confirmed Chinese responsibility but states the incident is “under urgent review.”

 Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reports increased PLA naval activity near the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

iNTELLIGENCE CABLE

 TOP SECRET // EYES ONLY — NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL BRIEFING

U.S. intelligence indicates significant divisions within Taiwan’s leadership.

• A senior faction within Taiwan’s ruling coalition is quietly advocating delayed resistance in the event of a Chinese blockade, fearing economic collapse.
• Opposition leaders are signaling openness to emergency negotiations with Beijing to avoid conflict.

Intercepts suggest Beijing is aware of these divisions and may accelerate pressure operations to exploit them.

POSSIBLE CYBER ATTACK

 GLOBAL MARKETS ALERT — 2:15 PM ET

Major semiconductor firms, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), report temporary shutdowns of key facilities due to cyber disruptions of industrial control systems.

The Dow has dropped 1,200 points. Tech stocks are down sharply.

U.S. manufacturers warn of immediate supply chain disruptions affecting defense systems, automobiles, and consumer electronics.

Cybersecurity analysts say the attack bears “hallmarks consistent with prior Chinese state-linked operations,” though attribution remains unconfirmed.

White House statement pending.

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait

 For Monday, read Edwards ch. 13.  For the weekly writeup, explain the most important thing you learned from this week's simulations.

On Monday, we shall adjourn a little early because of an Ath event.

The United States has been carefully monitoring the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S. intelligence suggests that China is preparing for an invasion. Officials argue that the threat is so clear that the United States must either act now or risk not being able to prevent a forced Chinese takeover of Taiwan. The president has convened members of the National Security Council (NSC) for advice on whether and how to intervene.

NSC members should consider one of the following options:

• Do nothing, signaling to China that the United States will not intervene. Given the strength of the Chinese military, this option would likely result in China taking control of Taiwan. The United States could lose an important partner in the region. Moreover, U.S. allies could come to question America’s reliability and become strategically autonomous. As a result, China’s military reach and economic might could expand significantly. Chinese occupation of Taiwan would also see the collapse of a vibrant democracy. A successful invasion would force 24 million to live under the CCP’s rule. By opting not to intervene, however, the United States would avoid involvement in what could be a deadly and expensive military conflict.
• Impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on China. This option would isolate China on the world stage and stifle its economy. However, it is important for policymakers to note that such actions would have economic repercussions for the United States and China’s other trading partners as well. Such pressure could dissuade China from invading Taiwan and so avoid entangling U.S. forces in a conflict. China, however, could determine that any economic and diplomatic pain is worth it and invade Taiwan anyway.
• Position the U.S. military to defend Taiwan. This option would make it clear that the United States will defend Taiwan if China invades. The guarantee of U.S. involvement could dissuade China from attacking Taiwan. However, if China still goes forward with an invasion, the United States would find itself in a war with China.

Last Paper, Spring 2026

Choose one:

1. On Wednesday, you will undertake the Council on Foreign Relations mini-simulation “A Threat to Taiwan.” In that exercise, you have a specific role within the National Security Council or among outside advisers. In your essay, briefly explain how you performed your assigned role in the simulation, and then focus on how someone in that same role would likely act in the current administration if this crisis actually occurred. 

2. Edwards et al. finished writing the 19th edition of the textbook in 2024. Write an addendum to chapter 12, 13, or 14 explaining how events since 2024 have confirmed, disconfirmed, or complicated their analysis.

3. Write on a relevant topic of your choosing, subject to my approval and revision.

The specifications:

• Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than three pages long. I will not read past the third page.
• Whichever option you choose, draw on course readings as well as outside research into primary and scholarly sources.
• Please submit all papers in this course as Word documents, not Google docs or pdfs.
• Read Strunk & White and my stylesheet (with links to model papers). Watch my writing lecture.
• Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of the Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
• Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism and will result in severe consequences
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.
• Return essays to the Canvas dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Wednesday, May 6. (If you have trouble with Canvas, simply email it to me as an attached file.) I reserve the right to dock papers one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

It Will Happen This Way...

 The roles:  who is playing what on which day.

Schedule for each simulation

Introduction by National Security Advisor (the instructor) and any opening remarks by POTUS

Round one (15-20 minutes): each participant makes a one-minute opening statement of initial position.  The president may ask questions.

Round two (20-30 minutes): Participants defend their recommendations and identify potential areas of compromise or disagreement. The National Security Advisor will call on students in the order in which they volunteer.

Round three  (15-20 minutes). The president starts by laying out 1–3 preferred options. The National Security Advisor then guides the discussion. After the airing of the policy options, POTUS should choose a policy option and may combine the strongest elements of several options. Remember, the NSC is not democratic and is an advisory, not decision-making, body. A vote is not necessary. The president does not need to choose the most popular option. 

Remaining time: debrief and reflection

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NAFTA, America not taken advantage of, 5%,alliances as multiplier,alliances and intelligence, influence over intl orgs, help consumers on oil prices,

For Monday, read the CFR summary and the article I emailed you.

For Wednesday, read the CFR summary and this article.  More to come.