Nixon

• On Rummy
• The Smoking Gun Tape
• Farewell to the Staff

Obama won't accept VP

Barack Obama has announced that he will not accept nomination for the Vice Presidency:

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Obama_would_snub_VP_offer_from_1029.html

This is probably not much of a surprise, because candidates rarely announce any intentions for the Vice Presidency for fear of undermining their Presidential campaign. In many ways, Obama would be a poor choice for VP for any candidate, because he would overshadow the President, given the enormous hype surrounding him.

Since Professor Pitney (semi-jokingly) mentioned Sen. Tester as a potential running mate to Hillary Clinton, I thought I'd share some of Tester's campaign pictures. They are hilarious!!!! http://www.flickr.com/photos/testerforsenate/sets/72157594229425831/show/ How incredible would it be if Tester and Clinton did run together??!!!! That pair could not be anymore AWESOME.

Speaking of campaign stuff, please check out the RNC ad against Ford in the Tennesse senate race. While watching, keep in mind that Ford is black. (It's one of my favorite ads of the 2006 midterm elections. Basically, freakin' hilarious.) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkiz1_d1GsA

And my last comment pertains to poor, old Rick Santorum. There is, I kid you not, a song about his daughter crying after Santorum lost the Pennslyvannia senate race... Talk about the interplay between media and politics. You can check the article out at http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6384.html and even read some of the song verses.

Public Opinion, the Press, and Speeches

• George Washington, properly understood.
• You may find historical data on presidential approval in Pika, p. 90. Here is a graph of recent data.
• An example of a press conference memo.
• A clip of today's press briefing.
• A reading of the Gettysburg Address runs just two and a half minutes.
• Listen to FDR's "map speech" while looking at a 1942 map.

One of the WP politics blogs had this to say about Colbert's appeal:

"a Republican polling firm, recently completed a national poll of 1,000 likely 2008 voters that included Colbert's name in both the GOP and Democratic primaries. (He has announced his plans to run in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.) In the field from Oct. 18-21, the survey has a 5 percent margin of error.

In the Democratic primary, Colbert takes 2.3 percent of the vote -- good for fifth place behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (40 percent), Sen. Barack Obama (19 percent), former Sen. John Edwards (12 percent) and Sen. Joe Biden (2.7 percent. Colbert finished ahead of Gov. Bill Richardson (2.1 percent), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (2.1 percent) and former Sen. Mike Gravel (less than 1 percent).

He was less lucky in the Republican field, where he took less than 1 percent of the vote behind even longshot candidates like Reps. Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul."

Hillary Running Away with the Dem Nomination

Supporters of Obama and Edwards like to think that Hillary Clinton -- like Howard Dean, Gary Hart and Ted Kennedy before her -- will go on to lose the Democratic nomination despite her early lead in the polls.

This study by Gallup Polling, however, suggests that such a scenario is unlikely. Hillary Clinton consistently leads her nearest rival by more than twenty points in national polls -- a rare feat in Democratic primary history and something that has occurred only twice before. In three of four Gallup polls taken in 1979, Ted Kennedy led Jimmy Carter by more than twenty points; in twelve of fifteen polls in 1999, Al Gore was ahead of Bill Bradley.

Gallup's study argues that the analogue to Clinton's 2007 dominance in national polling is Gore's lead in 1999. It also distinguishes Clinton's frontrunner status from Kennedy and Hart's:

Kennedy and Hart ultimately lost their nomination bids, but their large leads came much earlier in the campaigns. Kennedy's candidacy lost its steam when Jimmy Carter's popularity surged in late 1979 following the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Hart's 20-point lead occurred in the last poll taken before he suspended his campaign after the press was able to confirm rumors he was having an extramarital affair.

Gallup concludes that Clinton should "play it safe" to avoid jeopardizing her lead in the polls and approves of her recent emphasis on issues "that Democratic primary voters may not necessarily endorse, but that may position her better for the general election campaign against the Republican."

But national polls don't tell the whole story. We don't nominate our Presidents by a national primary, after all. Instead we allow two random states, unrepresentative of the demography of the whole nation, to decide for us. That's why Hillary, for her own part, is refusing the "inevitable" label, at least in Iowa. Yesterday, she told supporters that she is campaigning as if she were running "ten or twenty points behind" her closest rivals.

Hillary Clinton and Drudge

Given how much attention Halperin and Harris give to Matt Drudge and the Freak Show, I found this article in the New York Times to be very interesting. It goes together so nicely, you would almost think that people in Hillary campaign were reading our books.
Clinton Finds Way to Play Along With Drudge.

Mrs. Clinton’s aides declined to discuss how the Drudge Report got access to her latest fund-raising figures nearly 20 minutes before the official announcement went to supporters. But it was a prime example of a development that has surprised much of the political world: Mrs. Clinton is learning to play nice with the Drudge Report and the powerful, elusive and conservative-leaning man behind it.

Colbert for President?

Stephen Colbert has announced that he is running for president. He is circulating petitions for the Republican and Democratic primaries in his native South Carolina.

There is just one problem: if his name appears on a real ballot, he runs the risk of breaking campaign finance laws. Politico quotes a Democratic election lawyer: “You don’t get a different set of rules because you’re running as a joke.”

Tactics in Presidential Elections

The best archive of presidential campaign ad is The Living Room Candidate. A good source of current spots (with some historical ads) is 4President.

Some moments from presidential debates. And a vice presidential debate: Bentsen-Quayle 1988.

Who voted for Bush and Kerry? See here for the exit poll.

Though the election was close nationwide, it was not close in most localities. See the graph of landslide counties.

Strategy in Presidential Electors

There are various formulas for predicting presidential elections. Here is one that relies only on the economy. The "13 Keys" model is both broader and more subjective.

Halperin and Harris write of Karl Rove, who served as President Bush's strategist. As a PBS documentary showed, Rove linked campaigning and governing in sophisticated ways.

As Halperin and Harris also explain, people such as Rove lie awake at night thinking about the electoral college. For more detail on the electoral college than you probably need, see here.

For a representation of "The Message Grid," see here.

Bush: Victim of Election Year Executive Flight or Evader of Senate Confirmation?

The New York Times today published a report noting that interim heads, intended to temporarily fill a position in the executive branch until the Senate confirms a new presidential nominee, currently fill a large portion of positions. Under the Vacancies Reform Act, passed in 1998, a president has 210 days to nominate another candidate for review by the Senate. Judging from the article, it seems as though Bush is solely the victim of flight from the executive branch in the runup to an election year; the fragility of the job security of conservatives is apparent given the growing possibility of a Democratic victory next November. Alternatively, the Times also suggests that the Bush adminstration may be attempting to circumvent the Senate's right to confirm executive appointments. Whatever the case, it seems as though the public has come to suffer from a lack of experienced and efficient heads at the helm of our executive agencies.

Schumer and Specter Push for Overturn of Buckley v. Valeo

As I was sifting through the news from this week, I found this article on the website of the New York Times. The article reports on the efforts of Senators Schumer and Specter to challenge the Supreme Court's ruling in Buckley v. Valeo (1976). In Buckley v. Valeo, the Court ruled that giving money to influence elections is a constitutionally protected form of free speech. Additionally, the case effectively banned restrictions on candidates giving to their own campaigns, allowing candidates like Ross Perot and Steve Forbes to fund their own bids for the presidency. To digress, ABC News reported this week that Mitt Romney has surpassed Steve Forbes in donations to his own campaign; in class, we witnessed the effects of this money when we saw the video of the Ron Paul supporter criticizing Romney's excessive use of buses in the Iowa straw poll. Schumer and Specter have joined the opposition to current campaign finance laws which, they argue, allow for large donors to drown out the political voices of "average" Americans. The effort to challenge Buckley v. Valeo, however, seems to be ill fated given that a similar attempt failed in the Senate in 2001. We find ourselves, however, in another election year in which the frontrunners for party nominations have all declined federal funds. Perhaps this time around, Schumer and Specter will find a more responsive public.

The Nomination Campaign

Here is a great site for campaign ads, both current and historical.

Log Cabin Republicans "help" Mitt Romney via YouTube.


Here is a Giuliani vulnerability study. Though it was for the 1993 mayoral race, it does suggest what a presidential-campaign version might look like.

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Convention moments:

• Riots 1968
• Pat Buchanan 1992

Writing Tips

Grading your papers reminds me of some writing tips:
1. Always introduce your quotations by identifying the speaker or writer in your text. Do not force your readers to go to the endnotes to figure out the origin of the passage that you quote.
2. What do you do when your endnotes cite a work more than once? Here is the answer:
In your essay’s footnotes or endnotes you will only need to use the full citation form once for a specific source. All subsequent citations of that same source will use either the Latin abbreviation “Ibid.” or a shortened citation. [More detail here.]
3. Superscripts follow punctuation marks (except a dash) in text and appear outside a closing parenthesis. Use Arabic numerals for endnotes.
4. Do not dangle your modifiers.
5. The CMC Writing Center, in Bauer 32, offers writing advice – in half-hour sessions – to all CMC students in need of help. Its hours are as follows:
Sunday 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Monday 9 a.m. - Noon, 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Tuesday 9 a.m. - Noon., 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Wednesday 9-Noon, 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Thursday 9-Noon, 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Friday 9-12 a.m.

The Presidential Nomination Process

Helena asked about the history of the unit rule in the electoral college. A brief (albeit opinionated) summary is here.

Madeleine asked about the complex system of federal matching funds. You may find more detail here.

The New York Times has good information on the delegate-selection process, including the latest dates for party primaries and caucuses. Before any official delegate selection there are unofficial events such as the Ames straw poll.

If you want to see some brief clips of Iowa caucuses, see here.

And the Dean Scream ... from a different perspective.

Presidential Advisers

I heard Professor Pitney talking to the New York Times on the phone about this issue and found the article this weekend. It seems like the advisory role has shifted throughout time. Lincoln embraced the debate that surrounded him and welcomed dissenting opinions. In these past 7 years, Karl Rove and Dick Cheney seemed to have run the show, how many dissenting opinions does the President listen to today?

When we elect our next president are we voting for the candidate or for his/her staff and advisers? There is a lot of talk about Hillary Clinton's team, there was a great article in the Washington Post this summer about "Hillaryland." After the Bush and Clinton presidencies, and the impact of their closest advisers, it seems like there is more to consider in an election than is clear to the American public.

"First Laddie" Diplomat

During Bill Clinton's recent trip to London, he told The Guardian that his Scottish friends suggest he be referred to as "first laddie" if his wife, Hillary, is elected president. In interviews released to the press in Britain, Clinton said Hillary envisions his potential role in the White House as a diplomatic one, in order "to restore America's standing" in the international community.

The possibility of having a First Gentleman in the White House (especially a former president) presents some interesting questions.

CMCers may remember, when President Clinton spoke in Bridges Auditorium last spring he was singing the same tune--he would gladly serve as US Ambassador to the world--and he reminded us that he will do whatever Hillary tells him. Who knows if that will include picking the presidential china.

Click here to read more.

Nixon to Clinton

President Nixon sought to rally the "silent majority" for his Vietnam policies. Gerald Ford was an experienced lawmaker with a detailed knowledge of government -- but Americans remember him via Chevy Chase. Carter had a pedestrial inaugural, and his presidency stayed that way. Reagan was a stronger communicator. Dana Carvey nailed Bush 41. Clinton, alas, will go down for an unfortunate phrase.

Speaking freely

Peggy Noonan had an interesting piece in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend entitled "Hear, Hear" - - talking about how we are limiting ourselves by controlling whom we do and do not talk to. Near the end, she urges both Republicans and Democrats to stop avoiding possible negative interactions while campaigning. She argues, I believe correctly, that if a candidate is serious about a certain policy issue it is necessary for him or her to talk to the dissenters. Politicians cannot afford to be scared of a few boos.

Check it out. The link above should work, but searching for it in the WSJ database pulls it up as well.

Ike Through Nixon

In early 1961, Ike gave his Farewell Address, famously warning of the military-industrial complex. Days later, the torch passed to JFK, who took a distinctly militant tone in the Cold War. Kennedy took full advantage of new technology, starting the practice of holding press conferences on live TV. His successor, Lyndon Johnson, had an earthy way of expressing himself.

In future weeks, we shall discuss Nixon in greater detail. But this brief clip gives a sense of his hard-edged view of international politics.