Monetary policy

In speaking today of the presidency and the economy, we discussed how the president doesn't control the Federal Reserve, but their actions affect the economy. Today, stocks surged over the mere speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates. A link to the article is here.

We spoke of how presidents don't control monetary policy, but it does affect them politically. The surge in the stock market won't help Bush, but may help the incumbents party (Republicans).

Economic Policy and the White House

Here are some basic graphs on economic policy, and the special case of aging and Social Security.

Does the executive control where the money goes? No, Congress earmarks money for projects. Here is one example (h/t Charlie Johnson).

The Way to Win is not the Way to Govern

Mark Halperin, coauthor of The Way to Win, writes in The New York Times:

For most of my time covering presidential elections, I shared the view that there was a direct correlation between the skills needed to be a great candidate and a great president. The chaotic and demanding requirements of running for president, I felt, were a perfect test for the toughest job in the world.

But now I think I was wrong. The “campaigner equals leader” formula that inspired me and so many others in the news media is flawed.

As we start the section of the course dealing with policy, we might discuss Halperin's point.

Presidential management of domestic policy requires knowledge of the bureaucratic complexity that we have already discussed. Take civil rights, for instance. It has many dimensions: for FDR, it was a war issue. For LBJ, it involved the FBI and law enforcement. No single agency is "in charge" of civil rights. Instead, various responsibilties belong to (partial list):

• The Civil Rights Division of the Justice Department
• The Office for Civil Rights of the Education Department
• The Office for Civil Rights of the Department of Health and Human Services
• The Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity of HUD
• The Office of Federal Contract Compliance of the Department of Labor
• The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
• The US Commission on Civil Rights

In trying to get hold of the domestic bureaucracy, the president relies heavily on OMB. Policy ideas sometimes come from the Domestic Policy Council.

The "policy streams (Pika 297-302) -- problems, solutions, and politics -- are all part of a broader policy process.

Hollywood Goes to the White House

A threesome:

• V for Vendetta
• C for Cookie
• Ron Paul video

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.

Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain. And here are Fred Thompson's greatest hits.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents:

• Gore Vidal's Lincoln (1988)
• Primary Colors (1998)
• The West Wing

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from two 1964 movies: Fail-Safe and Dr. Strangelove. Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Anti-Mormon attacks on Romney

Last Thursday, news broke of anti-mormon calls being made in New Hampshire and Iowa. These were essentially attacks on Romney. Every other campaign has denounced the attacks and denied any involvement. McCain has gone as far as to ask the New Hampshire Attorney General to investigate. The latest speculation is that Romney may be behind the calls so that he can innoculate himself against attacks on his faith (similar to how Kennedy was behind anti-Catholic calls in 1960). An article detailing the possible links to Romney is here.

I'm curious as to the advisability of this tactic (whether it is by Romney or someone else). Presidential elections are open to much scrutiny, so I expect that we will learn who was behind the calls sometime soon. If it was Romney, will this actually help him? Or was it a political miscalculation that will dilute his leads in New Hampshire and Iowa?

The Democratic and Republican Shortlist

When the new president gets elected, they're probably going to be nominating a candidate or two for the Supreme Court. A few months ago, SCOTUSblog posted a "Short List" of possible appointees by Democratic president (with a follow up post) along with list for a Republican president.

The President and the Courts

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Obviously, Supreme Court nominations are a key method. See the story behind Justice O'Connor. How would the Democratic presidential candidates pick a justice?

Once justices are in place, the executive tries to sway the courts through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

The judicial branch, of course, restrains and influences the executive branch. The Bush administration recently lost a round on fuel economy standards but won a round on national security wiretapping. Can we generalize from these cases? In comparison with domestic issues, have courts been more reluctant to stay the executive's hand in matters of national security?

Primary vs. General Election

The Iowa and New Hampshire primaries demonstrate an interesting conflict in primary politics, according to a recent New York Times article (view the article here). The article mentions that voters in these two states are ranking the candidates based on two criteria. The candidates either appeal to the ideological views of the base constituency or they will prove to be electable on the national stage. This issue is extremely important for Republican voters who lack a clear cut front runner who is both electable and in line with the party's ideological views. I thought this was an interesting article as it relates to the strategies for primary politics mentioned in Halperin.

Congress NAILs the President

NAIL is a mnemonic device for four ways by which the legislative branch oversees or checks the executive.

• Nominations. The Senate must confirm presidential nominations to high-level executive posts. Most nominations are uncontroversial and win easy approval. But the threat of defeating nominees may influence the names that the president sends to the Hill. And confirmation hearings not only enable senators to judge the nominees' qualifications but let them send messages to the administration. See Leahy ask Mukasey about torture.
• Appropriations. Lawmakers may use earmarks and limitations are to direct and restrict the availability of funds for specified activities. Look here for a map of some earmarks. As with nominations, they may also use hearings to raise policy questions. See Obey ask Secretary Gates about Gitmo.
• Investigations. Congressional committees often conduct investigations and oversight hearings. One famous example was the Senate Watergate Committee, in which then-staffer Fred Thompson played a role. Congress may also study executive branch operations through the GAO, the CBO, and the CRS.
• Legislation. Of course, Congress may influence the executive by passing laws requiring or forbidding certain activities. As the readings point out, the Supreme Court ruled against the "legislative veto."

Congress seldom resorts to a more powerful weapon: impeachment. See the cases of Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton.

In curbing the executive, how successful has Congress been? Under which circumstances does which branch have the upper hand?

Romney: Consultant-in-Chief

In last weekend's Wall Street Journal, there was an article describing how Romney's consulting background would shape a Romney presidency (link to the article)

An interesting excerpt from the article:

When asked for details about how he would reduce the size of government if elected, he mentions two things: The organizational chart of the executive branch, and consultants. "There's no corporation in America that would have a CEO, no COO, just a CEO, with 30 direct reports."

Running a government organized like this is, he explains, impossible. "So I would probably have super-cabinet secretaries, or at least some structure that McKinsey would guide me to put in place." He seems to catch a note of surprise in his audience, but he presses on: "I'm not kidding, I probably would bring in McKinsey. . . . I would consult with the best and the brightest minds, whether it's McKinsey, Bain, BCG or Jack Welch."

Romney goes on to mention how duplicative and wasteful government is, and talks about how he would "cut the fat". I think this is an interesting take on how to fix government, but how realistic is this in light of the discussion we had today? Government rarely shrinks, not even under avowed small-government politicians like Reagan. Given Romney's lack of inside-the-beltway experience, I really wonder whether he would really be able to pull this off.

But if Romney actually wins, I guess anything is possible.

Geoff Lewis

FBCI

Over the weekend I was thinking about something from last week's topic. It is small and relatively unimportant, but I was curious about it nonetheless. I was wondering about the Office of Faith-based and Community Initiatives. I imagine it has played a significant role during the Bush presidency in catering to the religious voters. But I was thinking about the role this office would have in a Romney administration. Just how much does the religious preference of the president influence this office? Would Romney use this office to promote a Mormon faith-based agenda? Or would he specifically refrain from this? I also was thinking of what would happen in a Giuliani presidency, where faith clearly is not of much of importance. How would this office look under his stewardship? I guess I am wondering whether this office tends to be filled by members of the president's church, or if it is simply given (almost like a cabinet position) to someone who will please religious supporters.

Campaign Strategy in the Democratic Primary

According to this Politico article http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/6816.html, it looks like Clinton and Obama are taking opposite strategies. Clinton opts for the partisan technique, rallying the base and "turning up the heat" against Republicans. Obama, on the other hand, is going for the "nation healed" motto and seeks to "reunite the country."

Why do you think these two candidates are going for these distinct strategies? What about Clinton makes "turning up the heat" more appropriate versus "a nation healed?" Also, what about the enviornment? When does the political enviornment call for a more conciliatory approach?

Also, does anyone know of examples in history where multiple candidates ganged up on the front runner in a primary and that front runner lost? If so, which underdog took the nomination? Has this proven to be a successful campaign strategy?

Swift Kids for Truth

A spoof off of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads.

Click here to see the satirical videos on Clinton, Edwards, and Obama, created by 23/6.com, a new comedy "news" site. Unlike the Swift Vets for Truth commercials, these farcical ads wont impact the polls, but they're funny.

Ted Strickland for Vice President?

On the topic of possible running mates, Ted Strickland, who was elected governor of Ohio last year by a wide margin, recently endorsed Clinton. Although he only has a year of experience as governor, he had a long career in the house beginning in the early nineties. He would be a huge asset in Ohio and he has the endorsement of the NRA. I also think he's fairly moderate, especially on social issues.

Congress and the President

This week, we look at relations between the branches. On Monday, we stand at the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue. How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes). How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.

As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?

As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last week.

Generational test for Republicans

Politico featured this article about global warming and the Republican party. I think there are two things our class can take away from it.

The article addresses young voters and how they can sway public opinion and the election. Several Republican legislators have begun to change their minds about global warming because of the environmental movement led by our generation. Activists have used the election effectively by putting pressure on candidates to say something about the issue. The Democratic candidates have all discussed global warming , and the trend is affecting Republicans. Grassroots movements can utilize election season in this manner.

On the other hand, this issue brings to light how superficial campaigning can be. The authors mention that the candidates are trying to stay away from addressing global warming in detail because the solutions are too expensive and therefore turn off the general public. While Republicans and Democrats are starting to agree that this is a real issue, they will use traditional campaign strategy and gloss over it with vague statements. The authors believe that it will be a while before their is action on the political front.

The President and the Bureaucracy

In current news, as Alannah points out below, Pat Robertson has endorsed Giuliani. Maybe he did not catch the YouTube video featuring Giuliani with Donald Trump.

As for the vice presidency and the 25th Amendment ....

Click here for information on the Clinton cabinet and here for the Bush (43) cabinet. Consider the criteria in Pika (p. 230):

• Political experience;
• Clientele or ethnic identification;
• Technical expertise;
• Pretenure friendship.

Here is a long list of independent agencies.

Here is information and rules and executive orders.

Thanks for Your Comments

Thanks so much for your comments and suggestions. While I cannot respond to all of them here, let me offer a few reactions.

• I will make a clearer connection between course content and our discussions of current events. But please feel free to take the lead in raising topics.
• Whenever possible, I shall post discussion questions on the blog a day or two before class.
• I will give out a practice final similar to the air midterm. In addition, you might get together to devise your own study guide. I do not grade on a curve, so you lose nothing by cooperating with one another.
• Please use the blog to raise questions. Before a class, you might want to flag certain issues from the readings that you would like to discuss. After a class, you might raise questions that you did not get a chance to pose, or that you would like to discuss further.
• Some of you mentioned specific topics in foreign and domestic policy. We will definitely cover them in the weeks ahead.

The House voted yesterday to override Bush's veto on a spending bill for water projects by a 361-54 margin. The New York Times also reported that the House just passed legislation that combines veterans funding Bush supports with Health, Education, and Labor appropriations that Bush has threatened to veto. Like Schip, this is another example of Bush trying to stand for fiscal responsibility. The Republican leadership in the House sided with the Democrats, who claim that Bush won't support domestic programs while wasting far more money in Iraq.

The legislation could be the first veto override that this administration faces depending on how the Senate acts. It also reflects the political posturing in anticipation of next year's election. Bush is trying to return to his party's conservative roots but congressional Republicans, as was the case with Schip, face the possibility of being painted as not caring about domestic needs. On the other hand, Bush is accusing Democrats of loading pork on their spending legislation.

Giuliani Wins Robertson's Love

Giuliani and Romney both courted televangelist Pat Robertson for his endorsement, but The Los Angeles Times reports today that Giuliani was successful by proving to Robertson that he will nominate strict constructionist Supreme Court Justices and defend "our population from the blood lust of Islamic terrorists," in Robertson's words. Yesterday, Romney announced the endorsement of Sam Weyrich, founder of the Moral Majority.

These big endorsements are most unexpected because Giuliani and Romney were labeled early as the flip-floppers of abortion rights. While they are big names that both worked for with good reason, Robertson especially has somewhat decreased in influence in the evangelical world because of his own rhetorical mis-steps. It's a step for both candidates toward courting evangelicals on the whole, but I doubt these endorsements will be hugely influential further down the road.

Romney Ad

I ran into this Romney Ad released last week following the Democratic debate.

Romney attacks Clinton while emphasizing his own executive experience. I think the ad is effective. Romney is a strong public speaker with a better presidential image than Giuliani. It is also interesting to note that he has shifted his campaigning to Clinton attacks.

Just food for thought: Pomona held a discussion of the 2008 presidential election featuring a few of the Politics Faculty and the new Con-Law Professor, Justin Crowe, made an interesting argument that the real "winner" of the campaign is Bush's approach to presidential powers. In particular, he argued that while Democrats have attacked Bush's use of policy, They have not questioned his authority to implement those policies, especially with respect to national security. More specifically, Crowe mentioned the lack of transparency in the Bush administration and the unlikelihood that any of the candidates would operate differently.

I think the argument has some gaps (torture being the main one) but it is interesting to consider that the main Democratic candidates are not campaigning against presidential authority. In fact, I think it says a lot that the exception to this is Ron Paul as the loudest voice for less Presidential voice.

The West Wing

For more on the points that Matt raised (and for the writing assignment), see a story on a recent statement by Senator Clinton and an analysis of her comments.

Look here for a list of White House offices.

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

Fred Thompson the Actor/Politician

A recent article in the New York Times described a theme that Professor Pitney has addressed a number of times in class: the intertwining of Fred Thompson's political and dramatic careers. Fred Thompson's characters on screen are not that far from his persona in real life. Take a look at the slide show as well.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/04/arts/television/04kant.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The Race Thus Far

An article in today's NY Times summarizes the key issues of the upcoming election very well. It first touches on what the author deems "The Bush Effect," questioning whether Republican candidates are hurting themselves by not simply avoiding comparisons between themselves and President Bush but rather refraining from speaking of him at all. It points out that despite Bush's 30 percent approval rating, two-thirds of Republicans support him and asks whether a Republican candidate should be alienating these voters. The article also talks about campaign contributions, Iran, comedy as an asset, Congress, taxes, and the Internet. Check it out here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/04/us/politics/04vote-web.html?ex=1351918800&en=7c37f906ef99e54a&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink