The End

National Security (continued) and Transition

Nelson labels Bush's argument on preemptive war as "The Bush Doctrine." Actually, four different ideas have come under that label.

Nelson also equates "preemptive" and "preventive" war. (p. 298). Many have tried to draw a distinction. According to a RAND report:

"Reduced to its essence, a preemptive attack is one that is launched based on the expectation than the adversary is about to attack, and that striking first will be better than being attacked.
...
"Preventive attacks have much in common with preemptive ones, but they are launched in response to less immediate threats. Both types of attack are alternatives to waiting for an expected enemy blow to fall, but preventive attack is motivated not by the desire to strike first rather than second, but by the desire to fight sooner rather than later."

More Gibson interview, on Iraq (first two minutes):

Timing and the Honeymoon:

"Change" we can believe in?

Barack Obama spent much time on the campaign trail calling for "change." As it turns out, "change" has a lot of familiar faces. Many liberal ideologues are upset.

New LBJ Tapes!

Foreign Policy: The Bush Years

President Bush reflects (start at 4:00):




President Bush the elder launches Desert Storm:




Powell had such influence during the Gulf War because of Goldwater-Nichols.

We went into Afghanistan because of 9/11. Why did the intelligence community fail to foresee or prevent it? From the report of the 9/11 commission:

Commenting on Pearl Harbor,Roberta Wohlstetter found it "much easier after the event to sort the relevant from the irrelevant signals.After the event,of course, a signal is always crystal clear; we can now see what disaster it was signaling since the disaster has occurred. But before the event it is obscure and pregnant with conflicting meanings."...With that caution in mind,we asked ourselves, before we judged others,whether the insights that seem apparent now would really have been meaningful at the time, given the limits of what people then could reasonably
have known or done. We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures in:

• imagination (see bin Laden memo)
• policy (see NBC report)
• capabilities (see Washington Post on translators)
• and management (see map of intelligence community)

Faulty intelligence also affected Iraq policy, as the WMD Commission concluded.

In the fall of 2007, President Bush responded to the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran (full transcript here):

QUESTION: My question, sir, is are you feeling troubled about your standing here today about perhaps facing a credibility gap with the American people?
PRESIDENT: No. I'm feeling pretty spirited -- pretty good about life. And I made the decision to come before you so I could explain the NIE. And I have said Iran is dangerous. And the NIE doesn't do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary. I'm using this NIE as an pportunity to continue to rally our colleagues and allies. The NIE makes it clear that the strategy we have used in the past is effective.

.
Chris Matthews, the great constitutional scholar, on Hamdan:

Foreign Policy & National Security

As we approach the end of the course, think back on two familiar quotations:

• “Frequent war and constant apprehension, which require a state of as constant preparation, will infallibly produce [standing armies]. It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority.” -- Alexander Hamilton, Federalist 8.
• "If the Union’s existence were constantly menaced, and if its great interests were continually interwoven with those of other powerful nations, one would see the prestige of the executive growing, because of what was expected from it and of what it did."-- Tocqueville, Democracy in America

JFK taped meetings on the Cuban Missile Crisis. In October 1962, JFK discussed the Cuban Missile Crisis on national TV.

As you reflect on JFK's decisionmaking, think about Peter Drucker's dictum: “The first rule in decision-making is that one does not make a decision without disagreement.”

A couple of years later, LBJ dealt with the Gulf of Tonkin.Bad intelligence contributed to the US reaction in the Gulf of Tonkin -- as Robert McNamara later acknowledged.

It also led to other problems in future decades. One "remedy" has been the reorganization of the intelligence community.

The Presidency and the Movies

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

• Gabriel Over the White House (1933)
• The Best Man (1964)
• Air Force One (1997)
• The West Wing

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

• Seven Days in May (military coup)
• Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
• Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)
  
  
  Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Economic Policy

By perfect coincidence, President-elect Obama today announced his economic policy team.


Some graphs and data on economic policy.

How did we get to the current crisis:

Crisis as a Policy Window

Just as we were discussing the role of crisis as a "policy window," The Wall Street Journal confirmed the point:

Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, speaking to a Wall Street Journal conclave of business leaders Tuesday, said the economic crisis facing the country is "an opportunity to do things you could not do before."

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste," Mr. Emanuel said.

Obama advisers said difficult times necessitate extraordinary measures. "We are in the midst of a massive reorganization right now in autos but also other areas as well -- finance, information technology. All of this flows into...the new green energy economy we are living in, albeit in an embryonic stage," said former Rep. David Bonior, an Obama economic adviser and proponent of a more interventionist industrial policy in the 1980s. Asked if this was the industrial policy of the incoming Obama administration, he replied: "The answer is yes."

Civil Rights and Domestic Policy

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:



RFK on a future black president:



LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

1. Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
2. Estimation
3. Selection
4. Implementation
5. Evaluation
6. Termination
   

More on the Bubble (with obligatory LBJ anecdote!)

From the Huffington Post.

President-elect Obama is still adjusting to life with the Secret Service and the loss of privacy that it entails. When Steve Croft spoke with him on Sunday's "60 Minutes," Obama said that "there are things we're still not adjusted to...like not being able to take a walk. That's something that I'll never get used to is loss of anonymity. And this is not a complaint, this is part of what you sign up for, but being able to just wander around the neighborhood. I can't go to my old barbershop now. I've got to have my barber come to some undisclosed location to cut my hair. It's the small routines of life that keep you connected. Some of those are being lost."

Newsweek just did a piece on what it's like to live with the Secret Service in tow, and among other fun facts, was this charming anecdote:

Presidents and their families quickly learn that even trips to the bathroom come with security precautions. Lyndon Johnson, never very subtle, had perhaps the most direct way of expressing his frustration. Once, after pulling his car over to the side of the road for a pit stop, agents quickly surrounded him as he relieved himself. A sudden breeze prompted one agent to alert the president, "Sir, you're pissing on my leg." Johnson, not budging, replied, "I know. That's my prerogative."

Watch a clip of the Obama interview and see a slideshow of Obama's life with the Secret Service

The President and the Courts

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

• See the story behind Justice Fortas.
• See the story behind Justice O'Connor.
  Now President Obama may get to shape the Court:
  
  
  
  (With this video, start at about 2:40)
  
  
  The Court can check the executive:
  
  

The Bubble

President-elect Obama is learning that every president works within a "bubble."

The New York Times explains why he must soon go offline:

Sorry, Mr. President. Please surrender your BlackBerry.

Those are seven words President-elect Barack Obama is dreading but expecting to hear, friends and advisers say, when he takes office in 65 days.

For years, like legions of other professionals, Mr. Obama has been all but addicted to his BlackBerry. The device has rarely been far from his side — on most days, it was fastened to his belt — to provide a singular conduit to the outside world as the bubble around him grew tighter and tighter throughout his campaign. “How about that?” Mr. Obama replied to a friend’s congratulatory e-mail message on the night of his victory.

But before he arrives at the White House, he will probably be forced to sign off. In addition to concerns about e-mail security, he faces the Presidential Records Act, which puts his correspondence in the official record and ultimately up for public review, and the threat of subpoenas. A decision has not been made on whether he could become the first e-mailing president, but aides said that seemed doubtful.

Click here for the rest of the story.

His everyday life is changing. He cannot even get a haircut in the same way as the rest of us.

But when he wanted a trim this week, the Secret Service took one look at the shop’s large plate-glass windows and the gawking tourists eager for a glimpse of the president-elect and the plan quickly changed. If Mr. Obama could no longer
come to the barber, the barber would come to him and cut his hair at a friend’s
apartment.

Click here for the rest of the story.

Remember What I Said About Being Careful?

The 2008 Plum Book of administration jobs is now out.

From the New York Times:

Want a top job in the Obama administration? Only pack rats need apply, preferably those not packing controversy.

A seven-page questionnaire being sent by the office of President-elect Barack Obama to those seeking cabinet and other high-ranking posts may be the most extensive — some say invasive — application ever.

The questionnaire includes 63 requests for personal and professional records, some covering applicants’ spouses and grown children as well, that are forcing job-seekers to rummage from basements to attics, in shoe boxes, diaries and computer archives to document both their achievements and missteps.

Only the smallest details are excluded; traffic tickets carrying fines of less than $50 need not be reported, the application says. Applicants are asked whether they or anyone in their family owns a gun. They must include any e-mail that might embarrass the president-elect, along with any blog posts and links to their Facebook pages. The application also asks applicants to “please list all aliases or ‘handles’ you have used to communicate on the Internet.”

(Click here for the rest of the article.)

Click here to see a pdf of the questionnaire.

Begich now leads Stevens

Relating to how the Congress will interact with Obama, it looks increasingly likely that the Senate will have at least 58 Democrats + Independents. The two unknowns in this scenario are Minnesota, which is heading into a recount and Georgia, which is going to be a runoff.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich now leads Senator Ted Stevens in the Alaskan Senate Race by a slim three votes, but if the remaining ballots break as decisively as the ballots counted today (where Begich won approximately 53.7% of the major party vote), then the election could be decided without a recount, although the rules for a recount are somewhat odd, and can be called for by the losing candidate with a $10,000 deposit.

There will be another ballot drop tonight of about 10,000 votes, and then the remaining 35,000 must be counted before next Wednesday, Nov. 19th.

Suggestions/Cabinet/Transition

Thanks for your suggestions. I cannot respond to all of them in this posting, but here are a couple of key points:

• Sample Papers. Some wanted model papers. If you want examples of good student writing, see the links at: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/writing.htm.
• Final Exam. I shall hand out a practice final before the end of the semester. Also I encourage you to meet and organize a study guide. I do not grade on a curve, so you can only gain by cooperating with one another.

As for the vice presidency and the 25th Amendment ....

Click here for information on the Clinton cabinet and here for the Bush (43) cabinet.

Consider the criteria in Pika (p. 263):

• Political experience;
• Clientele or ethnic identification;
• Technical expertise;

Also remember pretenure friendship.

Here is a long list of independent agencies.

Here is information and rules and executive orders.

Hoax, and Cool Story for Electoral College Junkies!

1. Remember what I said about not automatically believing what you read on the Internet? Read on ....

2. From CQ Politics:

The latest Election Day contest to be decided delivered one of the smallest prizes: President-elect Barack Obama has, by a narrow margin, claimed the one electoral vote accorded to the winner of the popular vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional
District.
...

Nebraska is one of just two states — Maine is the other — that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Each state accords two votes to the statewide winner, and one vote apiece to the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts. Obama’s win for one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes is, however, the first time there has been a split decision. And it occurred because of Obama’s strategy of campaigning heavily in places his campaign viewed as winnable, even though many had been Republican presidential strongholds for years.

Click here for the full story.

The Real West Wing

West Wing map

White House tours

Executive Office of the President

White House salaries

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

The Transition

Here are some items on presidential transitions, which we shall discuss on Wednesday, November 12:

Stephen Hess, What Do We Do Now? A Workbook for the President-Elect (Washington: Brookings, 2008), ch. 1. at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Press/Books/2008/whatdowedonow/whatdowedonow_chapter.pdf

Terry Sullivan, "Evaluating Transition 2001," at http://whitehousetransitionproject.org/resources/briefing/NerveCenter-Ch10-6.pdf


Watch CBS Videos Online

Congress and the President

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

On Monday, we stand at the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue. How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).

How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.

As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?

As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Fearless Forecast!

Here is my guess as to the most likely outcome of the election. My assumption is that current polls are roughly accurate.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%

Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of

• Pennsylvania
• New Mexico
• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina

Bottom line: Obama wins 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.

In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!

In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%

Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus

• Missouri
• Indiana
• Montana
• North Dakota
• Georgia
• Arizona
• West Virginia
• Arkansas

Bottom line: Obama wins 417 electoral votes to McCain's 121.

In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.

In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!

Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%

Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states

• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina
• Missouri

Bottom line: McCain gets 274 electoral votes to Obama's 264. In this case, Democrats would immediately challenge vote totals in key states, and the Obama campaign would try to get at least six McCain electors to flip.

In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.

Ads, Ads, Ads

http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/

Media Bias

An honest attempt to examine perceived media bias from reporters themselves? No!

One less Republican Senator

It's looking bleak for Ted Stevens...

Presidential Elections

From Federalist 39:

The executive power will be derived from a very compound source. The immediate election of the President is to be made by the States in their political characters. The votes allotted to them are in a compound ratio, which considers them partly as distinct and coequal societies, partly as unequal members of the same society. The eventual election, again, is to be made by that branch of the legislature which consists of the national representatives; but in this particular act they are to be thrown into the form of individual delegations, from so many distinct and coequal bodies politic. From this aspect of the government it appears to be of a mixed character, presenting at least as many federal as national features.

• An electoral college timeline.
• Bush v. Gore.
• The 2000 map
• Faithless electors
• Seeking flippers
• Cinematic map
• 2004 Exit Poll
• Strategy 2008: electoral college

Election Items

Here is a bit of information on Obama's transition plans.

Here is how Republicans currently view the campaign:

Readings on Presidential Elections

Here are the "TBA" readings for October 29. IF YOU CANNOT ACCESS AN ARTICLE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW AND I SHALL EMAIL YOU A COPY.

• Ron Brownstein, "The Hidden History of the American Electorate," National Journal, October 18, 2008.
• Alan Abramowitz, " Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for- Change Model," PS: Political Science & Politics, October 2008.
• Robert Draper, "The Making (and Remaking) of McCain," New York Times Magazine, October 22, 2008.
• Joshua Green, "Playing Dirty," The Atlantic, June 2004 (about opposition research in the 2004 campaign but mostly still relevant)

Presidential Effectiveness and Character

High-ranking presidents have tended to have large percentages of co-partisans in Congress at the start of their terms:

..............................House.............Senate

Washington.........57....................69
Jefferson.............64....................50
Jackson...............64....................52
Lincoln................59....................62
T. Roosevelt.......56....................62
FDR.....................72....................61



The Smoking Gun:



Nixon Farewell:

Second Assignment

Pick one of the following:

1. Forecast the popular vote (percentages) and electoral vote in the 2008 election. Explain. In your essay, you need not discuss every state, just the key battlegrounds. Attach a map or list of your state predictions, which will not count against the page limit. Here are some handy pages:

• http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/elect.htm
• http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/
• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1
  
  

2. Using primary source documents online, explain one major presidential decision by one of the following:

• Harry Truman http://www.trumanlibrary.org/photos/av-photo.htm
• Eisenhower http://www.eisenhower.archives.gov/
• JFK http://www.jfklibrary.org/historical+resources/archives/reference+desk
• LBJ http://www.lbjlib.utexas.edu/johnson/archives.hom/archives-main.shtm
• Nixon http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/index.php
• Bush http://bushlibrary.tamu.edu/research/research.php
  Also see a variety of sites at:
  http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/presidency.html
  
  
• Essays should be typed (12-point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.
• Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.
• Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.
• Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday 29 October. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade after that. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

Presidential Greatness

Alternative ways of ranking presidents here, here and here, and here.

Skowronek Typology (see Pika 149)

..............................................................President's Political Identity

..........................................Opposed............................................Affiliated

Prev...........Vulnerable.......Reconstruction (FDR, Reagan).......Disjunction (Carter)
Est
Com ..........Resilient..........Preemption (Ike, Nixon, Clinton)...Articulation (Bush41)

Presidential Communication

JFK Inaugural:





Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" Speech


Reagan's Evil Empire Speech:



Contentious Nixon Press Conference:

Newspaper Article: Constitution Vague on JFK's Successor

I found this article while researching for my paper. It appeared in the New York Times on November 23, 1963. The article explains what the constitution says about what happens when the president dies or is otherwise removed from office and lays out the chain of succession. It also mentions that Tyler established the precedent of the Vice President taking on the title of President. After Kennedy was assassinated, the process of succession needed to be explained to the common person.

Follow this link: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=89977864&sid=1&Fmt=11&clientId=42799&RQT=309&VName=HNP
Click on the article and it will download the PDF version of the succession article

Nixon to Clinton

• President Nixon sought to rally the "silent majority" for his Vietnam policies.
• Ford was a healer.
• Carter wore a sweater.
• Reagan was a stronger communicator.
• Clinton, alas, will go down for an unfortunate phrase.

"A Time for Choosing"

Henry Salvatori convinced Ronald Reagan to give the following speech during the 1964 RNC. It was a nomination address on behalf of presidential candidate Barry Goldwater, and it launched Reagan's political career. This is one of the most compelling political speeches of recent history, though it did not win Goldwater the election...

Ike through Nixon

Just before Eisenhower became president, his son John went to Korea to serve in an infantry unit. In the New York Times, the younger Eisenhower recalls a conversation that you probably never had with your dad.

As the time for my deployment approached, I discussed my intentions with my father. We met at the Blackstone Hotel in Chicago, just after the Republican convention, and I explained my position. My father, as a professional officer himself, understood and accepted it. However, he had a firm condition: under no circumstances must I ever be captured. He would accept the risk of my being killed or wounded, but if the Chinese Communists or North Koreans ever took me prisoner, and threatened blackmail, he could be forced to resign the presidency. I agreed to that condition wholeheartedly. I would take my life before being captured.

Ponder that last line. A president needs a pint or two of very cold blood.

In early 1961, Ike gave his Farewell Address, famously warning of the military-industrial complex. Days later, the torch passed to JFK, who took a distinctly militant tone in the Cold War. Kennedy took full advantage of new technology, starting the practice of holding press conferences on live TV. His successor, Lyndon Johnson, had an earthy way of expressing himself.

In future weeks, we shall discuss Nixon in greater detail. But this brief clip gives a glimpse of what he termed a "cold-blooded" view of international politics.

More on the VP debate

There is something to be said for evaluating 2008's vice presidential field as the lesser of two liabilities. Or, if not outright liabilities, perhaps candidates with a great deal of downside in addition to the advantages they bring to the race. Joe Biden was never about energizing the Democratic base. Obama chose him to balance the ticket and attract some of the white, working-class voters that Hillary Clinton courted so strongly. And the campaign knew his propensity for misstatements, which has materialized lately. He has arguably never produced much of a bump in either direction for Obama. If he fails to perform well in the debate, there may be few Biden supporters left in the party.

By contrast, Sarah Palin's popularity may have never been higher than before she spoke a word as McCain's official VP choice. In speeches and forums allowing her to set the agenda, Palin displays the charisma the campaign clearly hoped would help deliver the White House. Yet in unscripted interviews, her capacity to provide meaningful analysis seems desperately short. As Politico writes, prominent GOPers are already worried.

Sarah Palin's media appearances thus far--namely the Charles Gibson and Katie Couric interviews--haven't been particularly encouraging for those who hoped her to be cut from the "free-thinking maverick" mold.



The question, then, is whether the palpable gains she has already brought to the ticket will be overshadowed by her inexperience as the campaign rolls on. It seems she brings a bigger upside and downside, but none of this may ultimately swing voters toward either ticket.

Palin, Quayle and the Vice Presidential Debates

A lot of people, having witnessed the Presidential debates last night, seemed to be asking how much the debates really mattered. Neither candidate landed any decisive blows or dealt adequately with Jim Lehrer's questions about the economic crisis. Unless there are some dramatic missteps in remaining presidential debates, some believe that few minds will be changed; the candidates simply laid out their stump speeches on stage and got agitated with each other. However, there is a debate that could alter the balance of the election: the Vice Presidential debate.

I saw an interesting article comparing Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle yesterday. With the Vice-Presidential debate looming, and Sarah Palin playing a critical role in keeping McCain competitive, this campaign’s VP debates may prove one of the most crucial in US election history.

In many respects, the McCain-Obama campaign bears similarities to the 1988 Bush vs. Dukakis election. Dukakis was less politically experienced than Bush or Bentsen, and attacked for his far-left record in the House and as Governor of Massachusetts. To limit the “experience gap” between himself and sitting vice-president Bush, Dukakis picked Lloyd Bentsen, one of the most experienced politicians in Congress (and Bill Clinton’s first Secretary of the Treasury). George Bush retaliated by selecting Dan Quayle, the relatively unknown Junior Senator from Indiana, to secure electoral votes in the Rust Belt. Although trailing by more than fifteen points going into the RNC, Bush and Quayle received a major boost at the Convention, jumping into the lead against Dukakis.

As the campaign wore on, Dan Quayle became a major detriment to the campaign, misspeaking frequently (most notably in the infamous potatoe incident) and bungling a number of issues. Events in his personal life, such as his military service and a trip he had taken with a female lobbyist, came out to haunt the Bush ticket. He was parodied in the media as an “intellectual midget”. Fortunately for Bush, Dukakis made several mistakes, including a couple of seriously mishandled questions during the Presidential Debates. It was the Vice Presidential debate that seemed to be a major mismatch, however. Below is a clip from the Vice Presidential debate between Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle (the famous part is towards the end):



The analogy does not seem to be particularly apt when one considers their differences. Biden has made almost as many gaffes as Quayle did, while Palin is much more attractive to the average voter because of her down-to-earth style. Palin was selected based on her ability to swing votes nationwide with her conservative record and her gender. With McCain trailing in the polls, Palin needs to be very impressive on October 2nd. If she avoids playing out the Dan Quayle stereotype that has been attached to her, she could prove the decisive factor in this election.

OBAMA & McCAIN : First Presidential Debate - AP

Click on the graphics at the bottom of the video for more relevant information

McCain trys to delay first debate; Obama doesn't bite

Early this afternoon, McCain pledged to pause his campaigning in order to return to Washington and compose a bailout package for the current economic emergency. Included in the statement, McCain sought to postpone the debate that is supposed to take place on Friday regarding foreign policy, although the Obama team did not agree to that and has issued a statement saying that "The debate is on," according to ABC News.

NYT
ABC

What do you think the general reaction will be to this? I think that what Rahm Emanuel said, that "we can handle both," is smart because I would expect a President to handle both an economic and international crisis simultaneously, if the situation ever arose. If Obama had reacted differently and agreed with McCain, would this be a battle won for the McCain camp?

Agenda already set for next president?

This MSNBC article hints that, despite the grand rhetoric of reform and change from both presidential candidates, the current administration's policies (and their subsequent fallout) preclude any large-scale transformations of American society in the near future.

Fineman writes:
"The next president’s foreign policy and defense script has long since been written. To simplify only slightly, it consists of winding down Iraq, declawing Iran and Hugo Chavez, and keeping Russia calm.

And now, after a scary and tumultuous fortnight of economic woes and corporate bailouts, his domestic narrative has also been outlined. And global credit markets, the Bush administration and Congress are holding the pen."

So will there be a "shrinking" of executive authority, since the president's economic power will be limited by the expanded power of the bureaucracies and Congress? Fineman says that this is supposedly the first time in history when the expansion of one president's authority has bound another president's hands to follow the same policies. I don't know if that's true, but he yearns for "another Lincoln or FDR" in the nation's time of need. Maybe expansive presidencies are viewed more positively in hindsight?

Roosevelt & Roosevelt

In response to Matt's question yesterday, I checked out the "midnight forests" proclamation (Milkis & Nelson 220). The legal authority came from an earlier law, not the Antiquities Act.

See here for information on how Clinton and other presidents used the Antiquities Act.

See here for information on how President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act.

I do not mean to pick on Joe Biden, but spot the mistakes in the following comment: "When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the princes of greed. He said, 'look, here's what happened."

Assassination Attempt:



FDR inauguration:




Ike Farewell:

Early 20th Century Presidents

Text and short video on Woodrow Wilson's stroke.

Political scientist Wilson reflects on the presidency.

The underrated Calvin Coolidge made the first presidential speech on sound film:

Transition

From the NY Times:

Though they hate to discuss it, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are quietly planning what to do in the frenetic 77-day period from the presidential election to Inauguration Day, so they will be ready to take up the reins of government.

Click here for the rest of the article.

There is even a transition blog.

Bill Maher and the War on Terror

3 minutes worth of an interesting perspective:

Parties in Congress During the Civil War Era

On Wednesday, Bryant asked about the House party breakdown during the Civil War era. Here are data from the Clerk of the House. Note that secession caused a big drop in the total number of seats and gave the Republicans an advantage. (The D and R figures add up to less than the total because other parties held a small number of seats.)

.............................Total...D...R
35th(1857-1859) 237......132 90
36th(1859-1861) 238........83 116
37th(1861-1863) 183........44 108
38th(1863-1865) 184........72 86
39th(1865-1867) 193........38 136
40th(1867-1869) 226........47 173
41st(1869-1871) 243........67 171
42nd(1871-1873) 243.......104 136
43rd(1873-1875) 292........88 199
44th(1875-1877) 293.......182 103

The Civil War and After

Lincoln takes office -- from the Ken Burns documentary (embedding blocked).

After Reconstruction came a series of minority president. See percentage of popular vote for winning candidates:

1876 Hayes 48.0
1880 Garfield 48.3
1884 Cleveland 48.5
1888 Harrison 47.8
1892 Cleveland 46.1

Toward the end of the 19th century, motion pictures and sound recordings allowed us to see and hear presidents in action.

Negative Campaigning, 1800

Okay, the 1800 election did not have TV ads. But the script for this video comes almost verbatim from a Federalist attack on Jefferson.

John Adams

John Adams

CMCers on the GOP Convention

You can get very different takes on the GOP convention from a couple of CMC alums who were there.

Clifton Yin was a McCain delegate. See his blog.

Adam Kokesh was a McCain heckler. See the account of his removal from the hall. See video:




Earlier, Adam spoke to fellow Ron Paul supporters:

The 2008 Presidential Campaign

The Democratic Nomination

• National polls show the candidates about even.


• Obama has pulled ahead in the delegate count.


• But some important states lie ahead.
  

The Outlook for November

• If there is a recession, Democrats probably win.


• Iraq will help Democrats. The only question is how much.