The Presidency and the Movies

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

• Gabriel Over the White House (1933)
• The Best Man (1964)
• Air Force One (1997)
• The West Wing

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

• Seven Days in May (military coup)
• Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
• Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)
  
  
  Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Economic Policy

By perfect coincidence, President-elect Obama today announced his economic policy team.


Some graphs and data on economic policy.

How did we get to the current crisis:

Crisis as a Policy Window

Just as we were discussing the role of crisis as a "policy window," The Wall Street Journal confirmed the point:

Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, speaking to a Wall Street Journal conclave of business leaders Tuesday, said the economic crisis facing the country is "an opportunity to do things you could not do before."

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste," Mr. Emanuel said.

Obama advisers said difficult times necessitate extraordinary measures. "We are in the midst of a massive reorganization right now in autos but also other areas as well -- finance, information technology. All of this flows into...the new green energy economy we are living in, albeit in an embryonic stage," said former Rep. David Bonior, an Obama economic adviser and proponent of a more interventionist industrial policy in the 1980s. Asked if this was the industrial policy of the incoming Obama administration, he replied: "The answer is yes."

Civil Rights and Domestic Policy

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:



RFK on a future black president:



LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

1. Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
2. Estimation
3. Selection
4. Implementation
5. Evaluation
6. Termination
   

More on the Bubble (with obligatory LBJ anecdote!)

From the Huffington Post.

President-elect Obama is still adjusting to life with the Secret Service and the loss of privacy that it entails. When Steve Croft spoke with him on Sunday's "60 Minutes," Obama said that "there are things we're still not adjusted to...like not being able to take a walk. That's something that I'll never get used to is loss of anonymity. And this is not a complaint, this is part of what you sign up for, but being able to just wander around the neighborhood. I can't go to my old barbershop now. I've got to have my barber come to some undisclosed location to cut my hair. It's the small routines of life that keep you connected. Some of those are being lost."

Newsweek just did a piece on what it's like to live with the Secret Service in tow, and among other fun facts, was this charming anecdote:

Presidents and their families quickly learn that even trips to the bathroom come with security precautions. Lyndon Johnson, never very subtle, had perhaps the most direct way of expressing his frustration. Once, after pulling his car over to the side of the road for a pit stop, agents quickly surrounded him as he relieved himself. A sudden breeze prompted one agent to alert the president, "Sir, you're pissing on my leg." Johnson, not budging, replied, "I know. That's my prerogative."

Watch a clip of the Obama interview and see a slideshow of Obama's life with the Secret Service

The President and the Courts

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

• See the story behind Justice Fortas.
• See the story behind Justice O'Connor.
  Now President Obama may get to shape the Court:
  
  
  
  (With this video, start at about 2:40)
  
  
  The Court can check the executive:
  
  

The Bubble

President-elect Obama is learning that every president works within a "bubble."

The New York Times explains why he must soon go offline:

Sorry, Mr. President. Please surrender your BlackBerry.

Those are seven words President-elect Barack Obama is dreading but expecting to hear, friends and advisers say, when he takes office in 65 days.

For years, like legions of other professionals, Mr. Obama has been all but addicted to his BlackBerry. The device has rarely been far from his side — on most days, it was fastened to his belt — to provide a singular conduit to the outside world as the bubble around him grew tighter and tighter throughout his campaign. “How about that?” Mr. Obama replied to a friend’s congratulatory e-mail message on the night of his victory.

But before he arrives at the White House, he will probably be forced to sign off. In addition to concerns about e-mail security, he faces the Presidential Records Act, which puts his correspondence in the official record and ultimately up for public review, and the threat of subpoenas. A decision has not been made on whether he could become the first e-mailing president, but aides said that seemed doubtful.

Click here for the rest of the story.

His everyday life is changing. He cannot even get a haircut in the same way as the rest of us.

But when he wanted a trim this week, the Secret Service took one look at the shop’s large plate-glass windows and the gawking tourists eager for a glimpse of the president-elect and the plan quickly changed. If Mr. Obama could no longer
come to the barber, the barber would come to him and cut his hair at a friend’s
apartment.

Click here for the rest of the story.

Remember What I Said About Being Careful?

The 2008 Plum Book of administration jobs is now out.

From the New York Times:

Want a top job in the Obama administration? Only pack rats need apply, preferably those not packing controversy.

A seven-page questionnaire being sent by the office of President-elect Barack Obama to those seeking cabinet and other high-ranking posts may be the most extensive — some say invasive — application ever.

The questionnaire includes 63 requests for personal and professional records, some covering applicants’ spouses and grown children as well, that are forcing job-seekers to rummage from basements to attics, in shoe boxes, diaries and computer archives to document both their achievements and missteps.

Only the smallest details are excluded; traffic tickets carrying fines of less than $50 need not be reported, the application says. Applicants are asked whether they or anyone in their family owns a gun. They must include any e-mail that might embarrass the president-elect, along with any blog posts and links to their Facebook pages. The application also asks applicants to “please list all aliases or ‘handles’ you have used to communicate on the Internet.”

(Click here for the rest of the article.)

Click here to see a pdf of the questionnaire.

Begich now leads Stevens

Relating to how the Congress will interact with Obama, it looks increasingly likely that the Senate will have at least 58 Democrats + Independents. The two unknowns in this scenario are Minnesota, which is heading into a recount and Georgia, which is going to be a runoff.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich now leads Senator Ted Stevens in the Alaskan Senate Race by a slim three votes, but if the remaining ballots break as decisively as the ballots counted today (where Begich won approximately 53.7% of the major party vote), then the election could be decided without a recount, although the rules for a recount are somewhat odd, and can be called for by the losing candidate with a $10,000 deposit.

There will be another ballot drop tonight of about 10,000 votes, and then the remaining 35,000 must be counted before next Wednesday, Nov. 19th.

Suggestions/Cabinet/Transition

Thanks for your suggestions. I cannot respond to all of them in this posting, but here are a couple of key points:

• Sample Papers. Some wanted model papers. If you want examples of good student writing, see the links at: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/writing.htm.
• Final Exam. I shall hand out a practice final before the end of the semester. Also I encourage you to meet and organize a study guide. I do not grade on a curve, so you can only gain by cooperating with one another.

As for the vice presidency and the 25th Amendment ....

Click here for information on the Clinton cabinet and here for the Bush (43) cabinet.

Consider the criteria in Pika (p. 263):

• Political experience;
• Clientele or ethnic identification;
• Technical expertise;

Also remember pretenure friendship.

Here is a long list of independent agencies.

Here is information and rules and executive orders.

Hoax, and Cool Story for Electoral College Junkies!

1. Remember what I said about not automatically believing what you read on the Internet? Read on ....

2. From CQ Politics:

The latest Election Day contest to be decided delivered one of the smallest prizes: President-elect Barack Obama has, by a narrow margin, claimed the one electoral vote accorded to the winner of the popular vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional
District.
...

Nebraska is one of just two states — Maine is the other — that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Each state accords two votes to the statewide winner, and one vote apiece to the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts. Obama’s win for one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes is, however, the first time there has been a split decision. And it occurred because of Obama’s strategy of campaigning heavily in places his campaign viewed as winnable, even though many had been Republican presidential strongholds for years.

Click here for the full story.

The Real West Wing

West Wing map

White House tours

Executive Office of the President

White House salaries

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

The Transition

Here are some items on presidential transitions, which we shall discuss on Wednesday, November 12:

Stephen Hess, What Do We Do Now? A Workbook for the President-Elect (Washington: Brookings, 2008), ch. 1. at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Press/Books/2008/whatdowedonow/whatdowedonow_chapter.pdf

Terry Sullivan, "Evaluating Transition 2001," at http://whitehousetransitionproject.org/resources/briefing/NerveCenter-Ch10-6.pdf


Watch CBS Videos Online

Congress and the President

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

On Monday, we stand at the White House end of Pennsylvania Avenue. How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).

How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.

As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?

As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Fearless Forecast!

Here is my guess as to the most likely outcome of the election. My assumption is that current polls are roughly accurate.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%

Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of

• Pennsylvania
• New Mexico
• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina

Bottom line: Obama wins 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.

In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!

In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%

Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus

• Missouri
• Indiana
• Montana
• North Dakota
• Georgia
• Arizona
• West Virginia
• Arkansas

Bottom line: Obama wins 417 electoral votes to McCain's 121.

In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.

In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!

Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%

Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states

• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina
• Missouri

Bottom line: McCain gets 274 electoral votes to Obama's 264. In this case, Democrats would immediately challenge vote totals in key states, and the Obama campaign would try to get at least six McCain electors to flip.

In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.