House Approves Biggest Changes in Financial Regulation Since Great Depression

Obama and fellow Dems eager to change the tide in the financial scheme launched a campaign for transparency in financial regulation. Republicans, lobbyists, and others who have benefited from the cash flow are dismissing these efforts as unneeded . The inter-agency council will serve as a "watchdog agency." Long overdue!

Secret Service B Team

Here's news coverage of the Secret Service's B Team in action like we discussed last class.

Succession, Protection, and Final Thoughts

Presidential succession

Presidential protection:

• Secret Service statute
• Bush
• Cheney

Practice Final

The following should give you an idea of the exam format. As you prepare, also take a look at the air midterm.

I. Identify the meaning and significance of 14 of the 16 following items (4 points each).

• War Powers Resolution
• NSC
• US v. Curtiss-Wright
• Executive agreements
• The Russo-Japanese War
• Front-loading
• Solicitor General
• Policy streams
• Line-item veto
• Election of 1876
• The 25th Amendment
• Rahm Emanuel
• Abe Fortas
• Mandatory spending
• The Little Rock executive order

II. Quotations: for three of the following four statements, explain who made it and why (4 points each).

• But every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have been called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all republicans, we are all federalists.
• The money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization.We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.
• In closing, let me say this: I will do my best, but I will not do it alone. Let your voice be heard. Whenever you have a chance, say something good about our country. With God's help and for the sake of our Nation, it is time for us to join hands in America. Let us commit ourselves together to a rebirth of the American spirit Working together with our common faith we cannot fail.
• Homeland defense and missile defense are part of stronger security; they're essential priorities for America. Yet, the war on terror will not be won on the defensive. We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge. In the world we have entered, the only path to safety is the path of action, and this Nation will act.

III. Answer two of three essay questions (16 points each). Each answer should take 2-3 large bluebook pages or 3-4 small bluebook pages.

• In Federalist 8, Hamilton wrote: “It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority.” Have the past two decades confirmed or disconfirmed this observation? Explain, with examples.
• Could Hillary Clinton have won the 2008 Democratic nomination? If not, why not? If so, how?
• See the excerpt below. Do you agree or disagree? Explain with reference to course materials.

A Democratic president, you'd think, would stick to Franklin D. Roosevelt or Jack Kennedy as role models. Not Barack Obama. As he faces tough times—economically and politically—I am told that he and his advisers are turning to an unusual source for inspiration: Ronald Reagan. Looking back, it shouldn't be a total surprise. On the campaign trail in 2008, Obama said nice things about the Gipper. Reagan, Obama said, "tapped into what people were already feeling, which was: we want clarity, we want optimism, we want a return to a sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing." (At the time, Obama's ode to Ronald seemed nothing more than a jab at the Clintons (who were infuriated), and a bid for Republican votes. But now I see that it was Obama's tell: the clue to how he views himself, politics, and the presidency. He thinks he is Reagan in reverse—a patient, genial game changer for the ages—and his confidence helped soothe the economic panic of a year ago. But it isn't clear whether the president really understands the causes of the Old Man's successes, or the sobering lessons of his failures.

Bonus questions (one point each)

• Larry Speakes
• Edwin Stanton
• Donna Shalala
• Penelope Smith
• Alexis Simendinger

Obama and the Future

Afghanistan deliberation

Current poll standing




The 2010 midterm in the House and Senate.

Issues:

• Afghanistan
• Health
• Global Warming

Ideological trends

How Secret and Secure is the President?

This article details a confidential 2003 Secret Service report that found numerous breaches in White House Security over the past few decades. While no president has been attacked since the assassination attempt on President Reagan, it is concerning to learn the (relative) ease with which intruders manage to breach security. Of particular concern is the report's disclosure that eight of the ten intruders had announced their intentions, and three were already being monitored by the Secret Service--yet they still managed to break through its defenses to reach the President and other Secret Service protected officials. This is an interesting revelation, particularly in light of our current reading on the Presidency and national security.

Rahm's Inbox

Deja Vu.. Kind of

"Among the ideas expected in his economic speech Tuesday is an expanded program that gives people cash incentives to fix up their homes with energy-saving materials, senior administration officials have told The Associated Press. Obama is leaning toward new incentives for small businesses that hire new workers and new spending on roads, bridges and other public works.."

Obama Scores

Gallup reports that Obama's approach to Afghanistan is off to a good start with the public:

President Obama has managed to thread the needle with his newly announced Afghanistan strategy, with his approach winning the approval of a majority of both Democrats (58%) and Republicans (55%) in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Wednesday night. At the same time, less than a majority of independents approve (45%). Among Americans overall, 51% approve of the strategy while 40% disapprove.

Afghanistan, Foreign Policy, and National Security

Constitution and Presidency

"And as Commander-in-Chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan."

Federalist 8: "It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority."

Democracy in America: "If the Union’s existence were constantly menaced, and if its great interests were continually interwoven with those of other powerful nations, one would see the prestige of the executive growing, because of what was expected from it and of what it did."

JFK taped meetings and calls on the Cuban Missile Crisis. In October 1962, JFK discussed the Cuban Missile Crisis on national TV.

As you reflect on JFK's decisionmaking, think about Peter Drucker's dictum: “The first rule in decision-making is that one does not make a decision without disagreement.”

A couple of years later, LBJ dealt with the Gulf of Tonkin. Bad intelligence contributed to the US reaction in the Gulf of Tonkin -- as Robert McNamara later acknowledged:

President Bush the elder launches Desert Storm:

Powell had such influence during the Gulf War because of Goldwater-Nichols.

We went into Afghanistan because of 9/11. Why did the intelligence community fail to foresee or prevent it? From the report of the 9/11 commission:

Commenting on Pearl Harbor,Roberta Wohlstetter found it "much easier after the event to sort the relevant from the irrelevant signals.After the event,of course, a signal is always crystal clear; we can now see what disaster it was signaling since the disaster has occurred. But before the event it is obscure and pregnant with conflicting meanings."...With that caution in mind,we asked ourselves, before we judged others,whether the insights that seem apparent now would really have been meaningful at the time, given the limits of what people then could reasonably
have known or done. We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures in:

• imagination (see bin Laden memo)
• policy (see NBC report)
• capabilities (see Washington Post on translators)
• and management (see map of intelligence community)

Faulty intelligence also affected Iraq policy, as the WMD Commission concluded.

In the fall of 2007, President Bush responded to the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran (full transcript here):

QUESTION: My question, sir, is are you feeling troubled about your standing here today about perhaps facing a credibility gap with the American people?
PRESIDENT: No. I'm feeling pretty spirited -- pretty good about life. And I made the decision to come before you so I could explain the NIE. And I have said Iran is dangerous. And the NIE doesn't do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary. I'm using this NIE as an pportunity to continue to rally our colleagues and allies. The NIE makes it clear that the strategy we have used in the past is effective.

The Courts

"That's why we must promote our values by living them at home -- which is why I have prohibited torture and will close the prison at Guantanamo Bay."

See Hamdan v. Rumsfeld

Chris Matthews, the great constitutional scholar, on Hamdan:

Obama Speech Fact Check

For the record..

Yahoo releases one of many responses to Obama's latest address. Aiming to compare his claims with the reality on the ground, they respond directly to four remarks about the Afghan war.

Obama and China- Saturday Night Live Skit

http://www.hulu.com/watch/110317/saturday-night-live-china-cold-open

Inappropriate SNL skit, but demonstrates the current media's interpretation of Obama's interactions with China.  

President Obama and PM Rudd

With Copenhagen talks and Afghanistan policy on the President's plate, international cooperation becomes more and more important.

This morning Australian PM Kevin Rudd met with President Obama and Secretary Clinton, declaring:

Australia takes its alliance with the United States very seriously. That’s why we have been with America for a long time in Afghanistan, and why we will be with America for the long haul.

The President has also been (seemingly successfully) pushing for NATO to increase its troop level in Afghanistan and helped convince Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to attend the Copenhagen talks.

A NATO diplomat said Friday that European and other nations already participating in the international force are expected to contribute between 4,000 and 6,000 fresh troops.

...


China announced today that Premier Wen Jiabao will attend the Copenhagen climate summit and that China will commit to reducing its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.

Foreign Policy & National Security I

The Football

Recognition

• Truman and Israel


• China


• Cuba

Treaties & Executive Agreements


Use of Armed Force

Organization

• National Security Council


• Intelligence Community


• The Military


• Foreign Service

Presidential Health

This article from Slate discusses a new theory about FDR's health in his final days. A new book alleges that FDR actually died from a cancer that he and his doctor's knew about before he ran for his fourth term.

Conspiracy theories like this bring up important issues of presidential transparency. How much are president's and their doctors obligated to reveal about their health? When such a private issue can affect the nation so greatly, is it better to be honest or to uphold the image of the president? JFK kept his health problems private, going out of his way to appear athletic and energetic. After Reagan was shot, he walked into the hospital without help. Bush Sr. was mocked for vomiting on the Japanese Prime Minister. The McCain campaign was criticized for minimizing McCain's melanoma battle.

If FDR really did have cancer, why would he decide to run for a fourth term? How much did it affect his selection of Truman as a running mate? How much does a president's health factor into his decisions?

Hollywood and the Presidency

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

• Gabriel Over the White House (1933)
• The Best Man (1964)
• Air Force One (1997)
• The West Wing
• 24

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

• Seven Days in May (military coup)
• Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
• Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)
  
  
  Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Pacific Presidents

Article by George Will that expands on the idea that we briefly touched on in class. During his trip to Asia, Obama claimed that he was the first "Pacific President", Professor Pitney pretty much debunked that, and this article goes into even further detail. This article also seems to take a very negative view of Obama and doesn't criticize so much for fact checking but instead seems to take it out on Obama as being egotistical.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/223821

Defense Outlays

Fiscal Year..........%GDP..........%Outlays

2010.....................4.8.....................19.9

2000.....................3.0....................16.5

1990......................5.2....................23.9

1980......................4.9....................22.7

1970......................8.1.....................41.8

1960.....................9.3.....................52.2

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2010/assets/hist.pdf

Freakonomics: The President's Party and the Economy

The Freakonomics blog posted on how the economy fares under different Presidents.

The salient points:

Since 1949, Democratic presidents almost always presided over a decreasing or flattening of income inequality. During that same time period, Republican presidents have always presided over increasing income inequality.

...

Additionally, real per-capita G.D.P. growth for all income strata is consistently higher under Democratic presidents. Individuals in the 95th percentile, however, do well under both Democratic and Republican presidents, but growth for the rich still tends to be higher when a Republican is in office.

...

Democrats preside over lower levels of unemployment while their Republican counterparts have historically presided over lower levels of inflation. The most accepted explanation for this phenomenon is the existence of a short-run Philips Curve in which inflation and unemployment are inversely related.

...

In the first two years of a Democratic president’s term, the economic growth accelerates. During the third and fourth years, however, the economic growth decreases. The opposite effect is seen with Republican presidents, who preside over decreasing overall growth during the first two years of their term only to have it followed by increased economic growth as re-election looms

Economic Policymaking

Centrality of economic issues in current public opinion

Graphs and data

The Federal Budget Challenge

Presidential Court Packing

A recent Obama nominee to the Chicago-based appeals court was just confirmed.

Democrats on Tuesday crushed a Senate filibuster against a controversial appeals court nominee, demonstrating to Republicans they can't stop President Barack Obama from turning the federal judiciary to the left.

HuffPo goes on to say:

Beyond the political message, the filibuster effectively ended a bipartisan accord reached in 2005, when 14 senators signed onto a deal that effectively stopped Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees except in extraordinary circumstances...

The Senate confirmed 326 of Bush's court nominees. There are 876 court seats, mostly for the regionally based courts of appeals and lower district courts.

.

Domestic Policy and Civil Rights

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:



LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

1. Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
2. Estimation
3. Selection
4. Implementation
5. Evaluation
6. Termination
   

Navigating Nuances in Nippon

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/obama_emperor_bow/2009/11/15/286508.html

Though Newsmax is hardly CNN.com, the article focuses on the history of the presidency when discussing the nature and ramifications of BO's back issues in front of foreign leaders.

The President and the Judiciary

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

• See the story behind Justice Fortas.
• See the story behind Justice O'Connor.
  
  

The Obama Administration and the Obama White House

The Cabinet

The West Wing

Staff

EOP

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Essence of Decision: Cheat Sheet

Air Midterm

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper. If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications

Identify the meaning and significance of the following items. On the real final exam, I shall ask you to write a short paragraph on each item that you choose. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

1. Hayes-Tilden race (1876)
2. Martin Van Buren
3. The nuclear freeze
4. The Hepburn Act
5. Helvidius
6. The Roosevelt Corollary
7. The Fair Deal
8. Youngstown v. Sawyer
9. The “Revolution” of 1800
10. Superdelegates
11. Mike Huckabee
12. Politics of preemption

II. Quotations.

Different presidents made the following statements at different times. Tell who said what and why.

The bank is professedly established as an agent of the executive branch of the Government, andits constitutionality is maintained on that ground. Neither upon the propriety of present action nor upon the provisions of this act was the Executive consulted. It has had no opportunity to say that it neither needs nor wants an agent clothed with such powers and favored by such exemptions. There is nothing in its legitimate functions which makes it necessary or proper. Whatever interest or influence, whether public or private, has given birth to this act, it can not be found either in the wishes or necessities of the executive department, by which present action is deemed premature, and the powers conferred upon its agent not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and country.

I did understand however, that my oath to preserve the constitution to the best of my ability, imposed upon me the duty of preserving, by every indispensable means, that government -- that nation -- of which that constitution was the organic law. Was it possible to lose the nation, and yet preserve the constitution? By general law life and limb must be protected; yet often a limb must be amputated to save a life; but a life is never wisely given to save a limb.

But in the event that the Congress shall fail to take one of these two courses, and in the event that the national emergency is still critical, I shall not evade the clear course of duty that will then confront me. I shall ask the Congress for the one remaining instrument to meet the crisis—broad Executive power to wage a war against the emergency, as great as the power that would be given to me if we were in fact invaded by a foreign foe.

III. General essays

Resolved: President Obama won the 2008 election primarily because of underlying features of American electoral politics, and his campaign made relatively little difference. Do you agree or disagree? Explain, with reference to the Ceaser book, along with other class material.

Is it possible to devise an objective measure of presidential greatness? Explain.

Bonus Questions

• Lloyd Bentsen
• Sidney Blumenthal
• Louis Biffer
• Benazir Bhutto
• Kathleen Blanco

Obama’s Vetting Questionnaire Online

Here is a copy of the 7 page, 63 item questionnaire for potential candidates. Could you work in the Obama White House?

The Executive Branch

(The whole documentary is here, in five segments.)

White House tours

Executive Office of the President

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

The Cabinet

"Tear down the wall"

A look into Reagan's Berlin speech and his famous line telling Gorbachev to "tear down the wall."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704795604574522163362062796.html

The President Whose Words Once Soared

This is an interesting article that discusses about the effects of Obama's speeches on decision making and public opinion. It questions whether Obama's speech making skills are beginning to lose their influential touch, and whether he will be able to have his expected impact in policy making as he continues to give multiple speeches a day and the intended audience begins to tune out. The article also mentions the large increase in the frequency of presidential speech making over time, referencing specific president's such as Truman and Reagan. Because of this change, individual speeches are less influential in general, which can be detrimental to a president like Obama who strives on his ability to communicate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/weekinreview/08baker.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

Those who voted for the bill.

After our discussion about LBJ and negotiating for votes, I wonder what these Democratic members got for voting in favor of the healthcare bill? This link has a list of Democrats who represent GOP-leaning districts but still voted with the caucus.

Summarized into 3 groups: 

R+11 or worse: 0 Yes, 14 No 

R+3 to R+10: 20 Yes, 18 No 

R+2 or better: 199 Yes, 7 No

YES votes in R+3 to R+10 group: 

ND-AL Pomeroy (R+10) 

WV-01 Mollohan (R+9) 

AR-01 Berry (R+9) 

IN-08 Ellsworth (R+9) 

PA-10 Carney (R+9) 

OH-18 Space (R+7) 

SC-05 Spratt (R+6) 

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick (R+6) 

IN-09 Hill (R+6) 

WV-03 Rahall (R+6) 

AZ-05 Mitchell (R+5) 

AR-02 Snyder (R+5) 

CO-03 Salazar (R+5) 

VA-05 Perriello (R+5) 

AZ-08 Giffords (R+4) 

TX-23 Rodriguez (R+3) 

KS-03 Moore (R+3) 

MI-01 Stupak (R+3) 

NY-19 Hall (R+3) 

PA-03 Dahlkemper (R+3)

The Health Vote

The New York Times has an extremely informative table showing the characteristics of the House Democrats who votes against the health bill. A summary:

Only one Republican voted for the bill, and 39 Democrats opposed it, including 24 members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. An overwhelming majority of the Democratic lawmakers who opposed the bill — 31 of the 39 — represent districts that were won by Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, in the 2008 presidential election, and a third of them were freshmen. Nearly all of the fourteen freshmen Democrats who voted “no” represent districts that were previously Republican and are considered vulnerable in 2010. Geographically, 22 lawmakers from southern states formed the largest opposition bloc. Below are details on the Democrats that opposed the health care legislation in the House.

Peggy Noonan on the Obama Administration's Agenda and Tuesday's Election

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574517751596221752.html

Interesting Peggy Noonan article about Obama's support to Democratic candidates, and its rapidly slipping hold on American voters concerned about the economy:

A president has only so much time. Mr. Obama gives a lot of his to health care. But the majority of voters in New Jersey and Virginia told pollsters they were primarily worried about joblessness and the economy. They're on another path, and they don't like the path he's chosen. A majority in a Gallup poll out Wednesday said they now think the president governs from the left, not the middle. The majority did not expect that a year ago.

The president chose promises made before the recession fully took hold, rather than more pressing and pertinent public concerns. In the language of marketing that has become the language of politics he thereby, in his first year, damaged his brand.

NAIL: A Simple Mnemonic for Congressional Checks

NAIL is a mnemonic device for four ways by which the legislative branch oversees or checks the executive.

• Nominations. The Senate must confirm presidential nominations to high-level executive posts. Most nominations are uncontroversial and win easy approval. But the threat of defeating nominees may influence the names that the president sends to the Hill. And confirmation hearings not only enable senators to judge the nominees' qualifications but let them send messages to the administration. See Leahy ask Mukasey about torture. See Harkin talk to Solis about disabilities.


• Appropriations. Lawmakers may use earmarks and limitations are to direct and restrict the availability of funds for specified activities. Look here for a map of some earmarks. As with nominations, they may also use hearings to raise policy questions. See Obey ask Secretary Gates about Gitmo.


• Investigations. Congressional committees often conduct investigations and oversight hearings. One famous example was the Senate Watergate Committee, in which then-staffer Fred Thompson played a role. Recently, Senator Feingold held an oversight hearing on "czars." Congress may also study executive branch operations through the GAO, the CBO, and the CRS.


• Legislation. Of course, Congress may influence the executive by passing laws requiring or forbidding certain activities. As the readings point out, the Supreme Court ruled against the "legislative veto."

Congress seldom resorts to a more powerful weapon: impeachment. See the cases of Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton.

In curbing the executive, how successful has Congress been? Under which circumstances does which branch have the upper hand?

Third Essay Assignment

Choose one:

1 See a day in the Ford presidency or choose a day in the Clinton presidency. Did the president use his time wisely on that day? If so, why? If not, what should he have done differently?

2. Anthony Kennedy has just retired from the Supreme Court. Whom should President Obama nominate in his place? Explain, considering qualifications and confirmability.

3. Identify a personnel change that you would make in the Obama administration. In other words, whom would you sack and whom would you hire in that person’s place? Explain how your proposed change would serve the president.

4. The recently-ratified Twenty-Eighth Amendment has made you – yes, you, a college student here in Claremont – the 45^th president, filling the rest of President Obama’s term. Explain a program or idea that you would attempt to carry out, other than what the current president is already doing.

5. Rahm Emanuel has asked for your advice: “I need your ##@!!!% help,” he says. “What the &&%%$#@ should President Obama do to influence congressional action on either health care or climate change? Write me a **&&^%$ memo, and do it $$#%^& fast.”

6. Write on a relevant question of your own choosing, subject to my approval.

• Essays should be typed (12 point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.

• Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.

• Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).

• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.

• Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday, 18 November. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade for two or more days' lateness. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

The shifting conventional wisdom

Not so long ago, everyone was talking about the failures of the White House's hands-off approach to the the health care reform legislative process. But I think this new understanding reflects the way the White House has seen the field since Day One.

President and Congress

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).


How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.



As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?



As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Obama's Performance So Far

Newsweek had a cover story on Obama and an analysis of his "first year" in office. They are saying that his Presidency actually starts on the day he was elected because of the power he was able to put to use from outside the White House. For instance, according to his staffers, he made the decision on election night to pursue Healthcare.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/219372

Also, on a completely different note here's an old news piece about President Bush's adventures with Sushi and the Japanese Prime Minister that we discussed in class a couple weeks ago. I'll preface it by saying it does show the moment he throws up on the Prime Minister so only watch if you're so inclined.

You can find it here.

Real Executive Leadership

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/27/schwarzenegger-sends-lawm_n_336319.html

Can you find the secret message?

Secret Messages

The Real TV President

Some say these are some of the best presidential speeches, too bad they're not real.

Although these clips are fictional and often improbable, they reflect the expectations of the presidency. Presidents play a role. FDR was never photographed in his wheel chair, Eisenhower cultivated an aloof public persona, JFK hid his feeble health, etc. As head of state, the symbolic role of the POTUS sometimes overshadows his actions as chief executive.

World War II Disney Propaganda

Presidential Rhetoric

Gettysburg:



The Second Inaugural

FDR's First Fireside chat ... on banking.

The Map Speech

FDR also made speeches for newsreels:




JFK Inaugural:




Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" Speech




Reagan's Evil Empire Speech:

Brief History of WhiteHouse.gov

President Clinton established WhiteHouse.gov in 1994. Since then, the website has changed dramatically from administration to administration.

Here's a little more information.

Here's a slideshow of the many faces of the website.

President Obama in campaign mode in Florida

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28719.html

OFA takes over the DNC?

Earlier we talked about how the Obama for America campaign has retooled itself into Organizing for America. Yesterday, Politico published this article describing OFA's attempts to integrate itself with the DNC. It's an interesting merging between what some see as a reelection campaign and a committee that is supposed to serve the interests of the entire party, and apparently some party heavy-weights are unhappy with how blurry this line could get.

It makes for an interesting comparison with the Republican leadership, which often seems to be at odds with the RNC (or at least its mouthpiece, Chairman Michael Steele). I wonder how the blending of OFA and the DNC, if it happens, will influence the the Democratic Party in future elections.

But Vermont IS one of the 50 states

In the chapter we read last week, Pika and Maltese claim that it took George W. Bush only three years and two months to visit all 50 states as President. I was reminded then of numerous press accounts from the last months of Bush’s presidency wondering if he would finally visit Vermont, and have since done some research. According to the CBS reporter Pika and Maltese actually cite, President Bush never did visit the Green Mountain State. But what makes this mistake strange is that the newspaper article Pika and Maltese reference explicitly highlights their mistake and explains that it took President Bush six years and six months to make it to his 49^th state, Rhode Island. Here’s the relevant section:

49 down, 1 to go

A speech by President Bush at the Naval War College last week marked the first visit to Rhode Island of his presidency. The trip left just one state that Bush has not visited as president: Vermont. Bush lost Vermont in both 2000 and 2004, so don't expect him to head there for Ben & Jerry's any time soon. According to Mark Knoller of CBS News, it took Bill Clinton until seven years and 11 months into his presidency to visit all 50 states, making it to Nebraska in December 2000. George H.W. Bush, on the other hand, hit all 50 states in three years and two months. Ronald Reagan never made it to all 50, according to Knoller – he visited 46.

Secret Service

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/10/18/secret_service_under_strain_as_leaders_face_more_threats/

Public Opinion and the Public Presidency

John Pohoretz describes the reverential attitude with which popular culture once depicted the presidency:

George M. Cohan, the song-and-dance man, is invited to the Oval Office by Franklin D. Roosevelt. He is an old man, and thrilled beyond words to discover his president is a fan. FDR asks Cohan to tell him the story of his life, and thus begins Yankee Doodle Dandy, James Cagney's glorious 1942 musical.

The face of the actor who plays Roosevelt is obscured. We hear his voice, but he is photographed from the back, from the side, over his shoulder. The effect is to raise FDR's status to that of a divinity, the Hollywood equivalent of the Lord telling Moses: "Thou canst not see my face: for there shall no man see me, and live .  .  . thou shalt see my back parts: but my face shall not be seen."

Yankee Doodle Dandy clip here.

See a similar (1937) depiction here at 7:35.

• Historical Trends in Presidential Approval
• Obama Job Approval

Polarization under Bush and Obama (Gallup data on Bush and Obama)

Organization Chart and West Wing Map

Writing for the Ear

Bill Clinton explains "crafted speech":

So what do I use polls for on the issues? What I primarily use polls for is to tell me how to make the argument that's most likely to persuade you that I'm right about what I'm trying to do. ... Okay. I'll give you an example where, according to the polls I have the unpopular position, okay? The Congress passes a repeal of the estate tax, an outright repeal. Now, I can--and I'm going to veto it if it comes to my desk, okay? Now, I can say the following. I can say, "I'm going to veto this because it only helps less than 2 percent of the people and half of the relief goes to one-tenth of one percent of the people, and it's an average $10 million." That is a populist explanation.

I can say, "I'm going to veto it because we only have so much money for tax cuts, and I think it's wrong to do this and say this is our highest priority, when we have done nothing to lower the income taxes of low-income working people with three kids or more or to help people pay for child care or long-term care for their elderly or disabled relatives or to get a tax deduction for college tuition."

Or I could say, "I think there should be estate tax relief." I do, by the way. "I don't care if it does help primarily upper income people. The way so many people have made so much money in the stock markets in the last 8 years, there are a lot of family-owned businesses that people would like to pass down to their family members, that would be burdened by the way the estate tax works, plus which the maximum rate is too high. When it was set, income tax rates were higher, but there was a lot of ways to get out of it. Now the rates are lower, but you have less ways to get out of it. You have to pretty much pay what you owe more." So I could say that.

So it's not fair to totally repeal it. Like even Bill Gates has said, "Why are you going to give me a $40 billion tax break." And he's going to give away his money, and I applaud him and honor him for it.

So I could make either of those three arguments. It's helpful to me to know what you're thinking. I know what I think is right. I'm not going to change what I think is right. But in order to continue to be effective, you have to believe I'm right. So that's kind of what I use polls for.

Second Essay Assignment

Pick one of the following:

1. Write a Saturday radio address for President Obama. (You may find past addresses at http://www.whitehouse.gov/weekly_address/). The address itself should take two pages. Then write a two-page essay explaining what you are trying to do in the address. What message are you sending to what audience for what intended effect?

2. Look at various schemes for rating presidents (e.g., Pika 149-150 and http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007243). Identify a president about whom at least two of the ratings disagree strongly. Explain why this president’s performance gets such divergent grades. That is, what did this president do to trigger such different reactions from different raters?

3. You have a time machine and the opportunity to advise Barack Obama or John McCain on one campaign decision. What should he do differently, and why?

4. Subject to my approval, write a four-page essay on any relevant topic of your choice.


Essays should be typed (12-point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.

If you pick the second option, please provide me with a way to read the speech or article. If it is on the Internet, include the URL in your references. If it is available only on dead tree, please attach a photocopy, which will not count against the page limit.

Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.

Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).

Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.

Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday 28 October. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade after that. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

Washington State Voting Changes Post Election of 2000

Washington State had its own controversial election in 2004 where Dino Rossi was announced the winner with 261 more votes than Democratic challenger Christine Gregoire. According to Washington State Law, a mandatory machine recount is done if the candidates differ in margin by 150 to 2,000 votes and a mandatory manual recount is done if the difference is less than 150 votes. After this recount, the gap narrowed to a 42 vote difference. After the manual recount the decision was REVERSED. Gregoire took a 133 vote lead and Rossi did not want to challenge further. These new recounts included ballots that were previously thrown out and recently "found" ballots in places like mail bags or inside envelopes.

The problems faced in our Gubernatorial election were met with serious election reform and overhaul. With the help of HAVA funding, the Washington State Secretary of State's Office is now on the cutting edge of election reform with things like:

Online Voter Registration Database

Statewide Guidelines for What Counts as a Vote

Only Absentee Voting Statewide (with the exception of one county)

and hopefully in the future Overseas Military Voting Via Internet


Just a quick plug for my home state that rarely gets national political attention.

The Electoral Process

From Federalist 39:

The executive power will be derived from a very compound source. The immediate election of the President is to be made by the States in their political characters. The votes allotted to them are in a compound ratio, which considers them partly as distinct and coequal societies, partly as unequal members of the same society. The eventual election, again, is to be made by that branch of the legislature which consists of the national representatives; but in this particular act they are to be thrown into the form of individual delegations, from so many distinct and coequal bodies politic. From this aspect of the government it appears to be of a mixed character, presenting at least as many federal as national features.

• An electoral college timeline.
• Bush v. Gore.
• Faithless electors
• Seeking flippers
• National popular vote?
  
  

One Democratic Presidential Candidate we Forgot to Discuss

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/148507/january-28-2008/south-carolina-

Strategery!

Demographics: the 2008 exit poll

Geography: the electoral map

Strategy and the strategic grid.

Air War: Ads!

Ground War: An Obama Manual (note, esp. the commandments on p. 73).

The course of the 2008 campaign: RCP averages.

On Nominations

Nate Silver just wrote a piece about possible reforms coming to the nomination process of the Democratic Presidential candidate. The article is an interesting read, so if you have a few minutes check it out. He also compiled a very interesting table:



Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Writing

• Some of you might benefit from going to the CMC Writing Center.
• For endnotes, never use lowercase Romans. Always use Arabic numerals. Click here to learn how to change format.
• In endnotes, the author's first name always goes first.
• Use a short citation for second and subsquent references to a work. See: http://www.indiana.edu/~citing/Chicago.pdf, page 4.
• Watch out for shifts in tense.
• In American sentences, the period comes before the quotation mark, which comes before the superscript.
• Introduce your quotations.

President Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize

This is already making for a great debate...

KARL RITTER and MATT MOORE, Associated Press Writers – 57 mins ago
OSLO – President Barack Obama won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday in a stunning decision designed to build momentum behind his initiatives to reduce nuclear arms, ease tensions with the Muslim world and stress diplomacy and cooperation rather than unilateralism.
Obama said he was surprised and deeply humbled by the honor, and planned to travel to Oslo to accept the prize, which he said he does not see "as a recognition of my own accomplishments," but rather as a recognition of goals he has set for the United States and the world.
"I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many transformative figures that have been honored by this prize," Obama said.
Many observers were shocked by the unexpected choice so early in the Obama presidency, which began less than two weeks before the Feb. 1 nomination deadline and has yet to yield concrete achievements in peacemaking.
Some around the world objected to the choice of Obama, who still oversees wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and has launched deadly counter-terror strikes in Pakistan and Somalia.
Members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said their choice could be seen as an early vote of confidence in Obama intended to build global support for his policies. They lauded the change in global mood wrought by Obama's calls for peace and cooperation, and praised his pledges to reduce the world stock of nuclear arms, ease American conflicts with Muslim nations and strengthen the U.S. role in combating climate change.
Aagot Valle, a lawmaker for the Socialist Left party who joined the committee this year, said she hoped the selection would be viewed as "support and a commitment for Obama."
"And I hope it will be an inspiration for all those that work with nuclear disarmament and disarmament," she told The Associated Press in a rare interview. Members of the Nobel peace committee usually speak only through its chairman.
The peace prize was created partly to encourage ongoing peace efforts but Obama's efforts are at far earlier stages than past winners'. The Nobel committee acknowledged that they may not bear fruit at all.
"He got the prize because he has been able to change the international climate," Nobel Committee chairman Thorbjoern Jagland said. "Some people say, and I understand it, isn't it premature? Too early? Well, I'd say then that it could be too late to respond three years from now. It is now that we have the opportunity to respond — all of us."
After the prize was announced, Jagland compared the decision to give it to Obama to the prize was given to German Chancellor Willy Brandt in 1971 for his "Ostpolitik" policy of trying to find common ground with Eastern Europe, which was under Communist sway.
He said the same thing was true when then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev got the prize in 1990 after he had launched perestroika and glasnost, and allowed Eastern Europe to emerge from Kremlin control.
The selection to some extent reflects a trans-Atlantic divergence on Obama. In Europe and much of the world he is lionized for bringing the United States closer to mainstream global thinking on issues like climate change and multilateralism. At home, the picture is more complicated. As president, Obama is often criticized as he attempts to carry out his agenda — drawing fire over a host of issues from government spending to health care to the conduct of the war in Afghanistan.
U.S. Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele contended that Obama won the prize as a result of his "star power" rather than meaningful accomplishments.
"The real question Americans are asking is, What has President Obama actually accomplished?" Steele said.
Obama's election and foreign policy moves caused a dramatic improvement in the image of the U.S. around the world. A 25-nation poll of 27,000 people released in July by the Pew Global Attitudes Project found double-digit boosts to the percentage of people viewing the U.S. favorably in countries around the world. That indicator had plunged across the world under President George W. Bush.
Asked whether the prize could be seen as praising Obama's reversal of Bush administration policies, Inger-Marie Ytterhorn, a senior political adviser to the right-wing populist Progress Party told the AP that: "I guess you could read it like that."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has made no secret of his admiration for Obama, called the decision the embodiment of the "return of America into the hearts of the people of the world."
But Obama's work is far from done, on numerous fronts.
He said he would end the Iraq war but has been slow to bring the troops home and the real end of the U.S. military presence there won't come until at least 2012.
He's running a second war in the Muslim world, in Afghanistan — and is seriously considering ramping up the number of U.S. troops on the ground and asking for help from others, too.
"I don't think Obama deserves this. I don't know who's making all these decisions. The prize should go to someone who has done something for peace and humanity," said Ahmad Shabir, 18-year-old student in Kabul. "Since he is the president, I don't see any change in U.S. strategy in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Obama has said that battling climate change is a priority. But the U.S. seems likely to head into crucial international negotiations set for Copenhagen in December with Obama-backed legislation still stalled in Congress.
Former Polish President Lech Walesa, who won the prize in 1983, questioned whether Obama deserved it now.
"So soon? Too early. He has no contribution so far. He is still at an early stage. He is only beginning to act," Walesa said.
"This is probably an encouragement for him to act. Let's see if he perseveres. Let's give him time to act," Walesa said.
Unlike the other Nobel Prizes, which are awarded by Swedish institutions, the peace prize is given out by a five-member committee elected by the Norwegian Parliament. Like the Parliament, the committee has a leftist slant, with three members elected by left-of-center parties. Jagland said the decision to honor Obama was unanimous.
The award appeared to be at least partly a slap at Bush from a committee that harshly criticized Obama's predecessor for his largely unilateral military action in the wake of the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
"Those who were in support of Bush in his belief in war solving problems, on rearmament, and that nuclear weapons play an important role ... probably won't be happy," said Valle, the Nobel Committee member.
The Nobel committee praised Obama's creation of "a new climate in international politics" and said he had returned multilateral diplomacy and institutions like the U.N. to the center of the world stage.
"You have to remember that the world has been in a pretty dangerous phase," Jagland said. "And anybody who can contribute to getting the world out of this situation deserves a Nobel Peace Prize."
Until seconds before the award, speculation had focused on a wide variety of candidates besides Obama: Zimbabwe's Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, a Colombian senator, a Chinese dissident and an Afghan woman's rights activist, among others. The Nobel committee received a record 205 nominations for this year's prize, though it was not immediately apparent who nominated Obama.
Obama is the third sitting U.S. president to win the award: President Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 and President Woodrow Wilson was awarded the prize in 1919.
Wilson received the prize for his role in founding the League of Nations, the hopeful but ultimately failed precursor to the contemporary United Nations.
The Nobel committee chairman said after awarding the 2002 prize to former Democratic President Jimmy Carter, for his mediation in international conflicts, that it should be seen as a "kick in the leg" to the Bush administration's hard line in the buildup to the Iraq war.
Five years later, the committee honored Bush's adversary in the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore, for his campaign to raise awareness about global warming.
In July talks in Moscow, Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed that their negotiators would work out a new limit on delivery vehicles for nuclear warheads of between 500 and 1,100. They also agreed that warhead limits would be reduced from the current range of 1,700-2,200 to as low as 1,500. The United States now has about 2,200 such warheads, compared to about 2,800 for the Russians.
But there has been no word on whether either side has started to act on the reductions.
Former Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, said Obama has already provided outstanding leadership in the effort to prevent nuclear proliferation.
"In less than a year in office, he has transformed the way we look at ourselves and the world we live in and rekindled hope for a world at peace with itself," ElBaradei said. "He has shown an unshakable commitment to diplomacy, mutual respect and dialogue as the best means of resolving conflicts."
Obama also has attempted to restart stalled talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, but just a day after Obama hosted the Israeli and Palestinian leaders in New York, Israeli officials boasted that they had fended off U.S. pressure to halt settlement construction. Moderate Palestinians said they felt undermined by Obama's failure to back up his demand for a freeze.
Obama was to meet with his top advisers on the Afghan war on Friday to consider a request by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, to send as many as 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan as the U.S war there enters its ninth year.
Obama ordered 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan earlier this year and has continued the use of unmanned drones for attacks on militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a strategy devised by the Bush administration. The attacks often kill or injure civilians living in the area.
Nominators for the prize include former laureates; current and former members of the committee and their staff; members of national governments and legislatures; university professors of law, theology, social sciences, history and philosophy; leaders of peace research and foreign affairs institutes; and members of international courts of law.
In his 1895 will, Alfred Nobel stipulated that the peace prize should go "to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations and the abolition or reduction of standing armies and the formation and spreading of peace congresses."
The committee has taken a wide interpretation of Nobel's guidelines, expanding the prize beyond peace mediation to include efforts to combat poverty, disease and climate change.
___
Associated Press writers Ian MacDougall in Oslo, Rahim Faiez in Kabul, Celean Jacobson in Johannesburg, George Jahn in Vienna, Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland, Matti Huuhtanen in Helsinki and Jennifer Loven in Washington contributed to this report.