Early 19th Century Presidency

Writing

Jefferson inaugural:



The drunk version is fun and broadly true -- but it was a low-level bureaucrat, not Mrs. Madison, who saved the Declaration.


Andrew Jackson was bat-guano crazy.



"I should have hit him," said Jackson after the duel, "had he shot me through the brain."

Jackson and the Bank Veto






  Territorial expansion

Succession, Protection, and Final Thoughts

Presidential succession

Presidential protection:

• Secret Service statute
• Bush
• Cheney

Obama and the Future

Afghanistan deliberation

Current poll standing




The 2010 midterm in the House and Senate.

Issues:

• Afghanistan
• Health
• Global Warming

Ideological trends

Obama Scores

Gallup reports that Obama's approach to Afghanistan is off to a good start with the public:

President Obama has managed to thread the needle with his newly announced Afghanistan strategy, with his approach winning the approval of a majority of both Democrats (58%) and Republicans (55%) in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Wednesday night. At the same time, less than a majority of independents approve (45%). Among Americans overall, 51% approve of the strategy while 40% disapprove.

Foreign Policy & National Security I

The Football

Recognition

• Truman and Israel


• China


• Cuba

Treaties & Executive Agreements


Use of Armed Force

Organization

• National Security Council


• Intelligence Community


• The Military


• Foreign Service

Hollywood and the Presidency

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

• Gabriel Over the White House (1933)
• The Best Man (1964)
• Air Force One (1997)
• The West Wing
• 24

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

• Seven Days in May (military coup)
• Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
• Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)
  
  
  Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Economic Policymaking

Centrality of economic issues in current public opinion

Graphs and data

The Federal Budget Challenge

Domestic Policy and Civil Rights

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:



LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

1. Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
2. Estimation
3. Selection
4. Implementation
5. Evaluation
6. Termination
   

The President and the Judiciary

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

• See the story behind Justice Fortas.
• See the story behind Justice O'Connor.
  
  

The Obama Administration and the Obama White House

The Cabinet

The West Wing

Staff

EOP

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Essence of Decision: Cheat Sheet

Air Midterm

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper. If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications

Identify the meaning and significance of the following items. On the real final exam, I shall ask you to write a short paragraph on each item that you choose. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

1. Hayes-Tilden race (1876)
2. Martin Van Buren
3. The nuclear freeze
4. The Hepburn Act
5. Helvidius
6. The Roosevelt Corollary
7. The Fair Deal
8. Youngstown v. Sawyer
9. The “Revolution” of 1800
10. Superdelegates
11. Mike Huckabee
12. Politics of preemption

II. Quotations.

Different presidents made the following statements at different times. Tell who said what and why.

The bank is professedly established as an agent of the executive branch of the Government, andits constitutionality is maintained on that ground. Neither upon the propriety of present action nor upon the provisions of this act was the Executive consulted. It has had no opportunity to say that it neither needs nor wants an agent clothed with such powers and favored by such exemptions. There is nothing in its legitimate functions which makes it necessary or proper. Whatever interest or influence, whether public or private, has given birth to this act, it can not be found either in the wishes or necessities of the executive department, by which present action is deemed premature, and the powers conferred upon its agent not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and country.

I did understand however, that my oath to preserve the constitution to the best of my ability, imposed upon me the duty of preserving, by every indispensable means, that government -- that nation -- of which that constitution was the organic law. Was it possible to lose the nation, and yet preserve the constitution? By general law life and limb must be protected; yet often a limb must be amputated to save a life; but a life is never wisely given to save a limb.

But in the event that the Congress shall fail to take one of these two courses, and in the event that the national emergency is still critical, I shall not evade the clear course of duty that will then confront me. I shall ask the Congress for the one remaining instrument to meet the crisis—broad Executive power to wage a war against the emergency, as great as the power that would be given to me if we were in fact invaded by a foreign foe.

III. General essays

Resolved: President Obama won the 2008 election primarily because of underlying features of American electoral politics, and his campaign made relatively little difference. Do you agree or disagree? Explain, with reference to the Ceaser book, along with other class material.

Is it possible to devise an objective measure of presidential greatness? Explain.

Bonus Questions

• Lloyd Bentsen
• Sidney Blumenthal
• Louis Biffer
• Benazir Bhutto
• Kathleen Blanco

The Health Vote

The New York Times has an extremely informative table showing the characteristics of the House Democrats who votes against the health bill. A summary:

Only one Republican voted for the bill, and 39 Democrats opposed it, including 24 members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. An overwhelming majority of the Democratic lawmakers who opposed the bill — 31 of the 39 — represent districts that were won by Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, in the 2008 presidential election, and a third of them were freshmen. Nearly all of the fourteen freshmen Democrats who voted “no” represent districts that were previously Republican and are considered vulnerable in 2010. Geographically, 22 lawmakers from southern states formed the largest opposition bloc. Below are details on the Democrats that opposed the health care legislation in the House.

NAIL: A Simple Mnemonic for Congressional Checks

NAIL is a mnemonic device for four ways by which the legislative branch oversees or checks the executive.

• Nominations. The Senate must confirm presidential nominations to high-level executive posts. Most nominations are uncontroversial and win easy approval. But the threat of defeating nominees may influence the names that the president sends to the Hill. And confirmation hearings not only enable senators to judge the nominees' qualifications but let them send messages to the administration. See Leahy ask Mukasey about torture. See Harkin talk to Solis about disabilities.


• Appropriations. Lawmakers may use earmarks and limitations are to direct and restrict the availability of funds for specified activities. Look here for a map of some earmarks. As with nominations, they may also use hearings to raise policy questions. See Obey ask Secretary Gates about Gitmo.


• Investigations. Congressional committees often conduct investigations and oversight hearings. One famous example was the Senate Watergate Committee, in which then-staffer Fred Thompson played a role. Recently, Senator Feingold held an oversight hearing on "czars." Congress may also study executive branch operations through the GAO, the CBO, and the CRS.


• Legislation. Of course, Congress may influence the executive by passing laws requiring or forbidding certain activities. As the readings point out, the Supreme Court ruled against the "legislative veto."

Congress seldom resorts to a more powerful weapon: impeachment. See the cases of Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton.

In curbing the executive, how successful has Congress been? Under which circumstances does which branch have the upper hand?

Third Essay Assignment

Choose one:

1 See a day in the Ford presidency or choose a day in the Clinton presidency. Did the president use his time wisely on that day? If so, why? If not, what should he have done differently?

2. Anthony Kennedy has just retired from the Supreme Court. Whom should President Obama nominate in his place? Explain, considering qualifications and confirmability.

3. Identify a personnel change that you would make in the Obama administration. In other words, whom would you sack and whom would you hire in that person’s place? Explain how your proposed change would serve the president.

4. The recently-ratified Twenty-Eighth Amendment has made you – yes, you, a college student here in Claremont – the 45^th president, filling the rest of President Obama’s term. Explain a program or idea that you would attempt to carry out, other than what the current president is already doing.

5. Rahm Emanuel has asked for your advice: “I need your ##@!!!% help,” he says. “What the &&%%$#@ should President Obama do to influence congressional action on either health care or climate change? Write me a **&&^%$ memo, and do it $$#%^& fast.”

6. Write on a relevant question of your own choosing, subject to my approval.

• Essays should be typed (12 point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.

• Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.

• Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).

• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.

• Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday, 18 November. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade for two or more days' lateness. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

President and Congress

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).


How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.



As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?



As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Presidential Rhetoric

Gettysburg:



The Second Inaugural

FDR's First Fireside chat ... on banking.

The Map Speech

FDR also made speeches for newsreels:




JFK Inaugural:




Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" Speech




Reagan's Evil Empire Speech:

Public Opinion and the Public Presidency

John Pohoretz describes the reverential attitude with which popular culture once depicted the presidency:

George M. Cohan, the song-and-dance man, is invited to the Oval Office by Franklin D. Roosevelt. He is an old man, and thrilled beyond words to discover his president is a fan. FDR asks Cohan to tell him the story of his life, and thus begins Yankee Doodle Dandy, James Cagney's glorious 1942 musical.

The face of the actor who plays Roosevelt is obscured. We hear his voice, but he is photographed from the back, from the side, over his shoulder. The effect is to raise FDR's status to that of a divinity, the Hollywood equivalent of the Lord telling Moses: "Thou canst not see my face: for there shall no man see me, and live .  .  . thou shalt see my back parts: but my face shall not be seen."

Yankee Doodle Dandy clip here.

See a similar (1937) depiction here at 7:35.

• Historical Trends in Presidential Approval
• Obama Job Approval

Polarization under Bush and Obama (Gallup data on Bush and Obama)

Organization Chart and West Wing Map

Writing for the Ear

Bill Clinton explains "crafted speech":

So what do I use polls for on the issues? What I primarily use polls for is to tell me how to make the argument that's most likely to persuade you that I'm right about what I'm trying to do. ... Okay. I'll give you an example where, according to the polls I have the unpopular position, okay? The Congress passes a repeal of the estate tax, an outright repeal. Now, I can--and I'm going to veto it if it comes to my desk, okay? Now, I can say the following. I can say, "I'm going to veto this because it only helps less than 2 percent of the people and half of the relief goes to one-tenth of one percent of the people, and it's an average $10 million." That is a populist explanation.

I can say, "I'm going to veto it because we only have so much money for tax cuts, and I think it's wrong to do this and say this is our highest priority, when we have done nothing to lower the income taxes of low-income working people with three kids or more or to help people pay for child care or long-term care for their elderly or disabled relatives or to get a tax deduction for college tuition."

Or I could say, "I think there should be estate tax relief." I do, by the way. "I don't care if it does help primarily upper income people. The way so many people have made so much money in the stock markets in the last 8 years, there are a lot of family-owned businesses that people would like to pass down to their family members, that would be burdened by the way the estate tax works, plus which the maximum rate is too high. When it was set, income tax rates were higher, but there was a lot of ways to get out of it. Now the rates are lower, but you have less ways to get out of it. You have to pretty much pay what you owe more." So I could say that.

So it's not fair to totally repeal it. Like even Bill Gates has said, "Why are you going to give me a $40 billion tax break." And he's going to give away his money, and I applaud him and honor him for it.

So I could make either of those three arguments. It's helpful to me to know what you're thinking. I know what I think is right. I'm not going to change what I think is right. But in order to continue to be effective, you have to believe I'm right. So that's kind of what I use polls for.

Strategery!

Demographics: the 2008 exit poll

Geography: the electoral map

Strategy and the strategic grid.

Air War: Ads!

Ground War: An Obama Manual (note, esp. the commandments on p. 73).

The course of the 2008 campaign: RCP averages.

Scots-Irish

Cameron Joseph `08 has a perceptive analysis of the Scots-Irish vote at The Atlantic:

The populist fury aimed at President Obama and his fellow Democrats may have roots much deeper than health care. In fact, it may be that it can be traced back to the emigration of the Scots-Irish, the first white group to settle interior America.They've been called rednecks, hillbillies and crackers. In the modern parlance of political correctness, they've been referred to as the Bubba vote. They live in Sarah Palin's "real America," and they make up the majority of Reagan Democrats. They count as distant relatives at least twelve U.S. presidents, from Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton and even to Barack Obama, yet the Scots-Irish remain largely ignored as an ethnic group in America

.

Questions and Answers

Here are some answers to recent questions that have come up in class:

1. Milkis and Nelson are not quite accurate when they speak of "a signficiant reduction in domestic spending" under Reagan (p. 370). In constant FY2000 dollars, there was a drop in nondefense discretionary spending, from $282.1 billion in FY81 to $255.3 billion in FY89. But more than offsetting this change were large increases in other areas of domestic spending:

...............................FY81......FY89
Social Security.......$246b....$300b
Means-Tested
Entitlements (for
the needy)..............$93b.......$111b

2. Here is the formula for the Major Party Index (MPI): ((Most recent 2-Party Republican Presidential Vote)*0.25) + ((Average of the Two Most Recent Republican 2-Party Votes for the U.S. Senate)*0.125) + ((Republican 2- Party Percent of all U.S. House Votes)*0.125) + ((Most Recent 2-Party Republican Vote for Governor)*0.25) + ((2-Party Republican Percentage of Seats in the State Senate)*0.125) + ((2-Party Republican Percentage of Seats in the State House)*0.125). More detail here.

3. In 1976, the first year for which we have FEC data, all presidential candidates in both parties raised a total of $171 million in the primary and general election campaigns. That amount equals $647 million in 2008 dollars (CPI). The latest figures show that Barack Obama raised $656 million in 2008. In other words, he raised more money than all of the 1976 candidates put together.