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During the semester, I shall post course material and students will comment on it. Students are also free to comment on any aspect of the presidency, either current or historical. There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges.

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Sunday, April 26, 2026

Domestic Policy I: Surprise, Uncertainty, and Emergency

  • Questions on paper?
  • Please remember your last write-ups this week.
  • Student experience surveys coming up.
  • Wednesday, fiscal policy
  • Presidential safety
Presidential assassinations and attempts

YearPersonStatus at TimeDetails
1835Andrew JacksonPresidentRichard Lawrence fired two pistols at close range — both misfired. Jackson beat him with his cane.
1865 ✝Abraham LincolnPresidentShot by John Wilkes Booth at Ford's Theatre; died the following morning.
1881 ✝James GarfieldPresidentShot by Charles Guiteau at a Washington train station; died 11 weeks later from infection.
1901 ✝William McKinleyPresidentShot by Leon Czolgosz at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, NY; died 8 days later.  Led to permanent Secret Service protection
1912Theodore RooseveltCandidate (Progressive)Shot in the chest while campaigning. Folded papers and a metal glasses case in his pocket blunted the bullet's impact and he was not seriously hurt. John Schrank was arrested and spent the remainder of his life in mental hospitals.  Roosevelt delivered his speech before seeking treatment.
1933Franklin D. RooseveltPresident-electGiuseppe Zangara fired five shots in Miami; FDR was unharmed but Chicago mayor Anton Cermak was killed.
1950Harry TrumanPresidentTwo Puerto Rican nationalists stormed Blair House; Griselio Torresola and a guard were killed in the gunfight.
1963 ✝John F. KennedyPresidentShot by Lee Harvey Oswald in Dallas; died shortly after.
1968 ✝Robert F. KennedyCandidate (Democratic)Kennedy was seeking the Democratic presidential nomination when he was killed at a Los Angeles hotel moments after giving his victory speech for winning the 1968 California primary. Sirhan Sirhan was convicted of first-degree murder and sentenced to death, later commuted to life in prison. PBS
1972George WallaceCandidate (Democratic)Wallace gave a campaign speech at the Laurel Shopping Center when 21-year-old Arthur Bremer shot him five times (start video around1:40), 9starincluding in the abdomen and chest, paralyzing him from the waist down.  Although Wallace went on to win the Maryland primary, the injuries effectively ended his presidential campaign.
1975Gerald FordPresidentTwo separate attempts within 17 days — Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme (Sept. 5, Sacramento) and Sara Jane Moore (Sept. 22, San Francisco). Both failed.
1981Ronald ReaganPresidentShot by John Hinckley Jr. outside the Washington Hilton; survived after emergency surgery. Press secretary James Brady was severely wounded.
1994Bill ClintonPresidentFrancisco Duran fired 29 rounds at the White House facade; Clinton was inside and unharmed.
2005George W. BushPresidentVladimir Arutyunian threw a live grenade at Bush during a speech in Tbilisi, Georgia — it failed to detonate.
Jul 2024 ✝Donald TrumpCandidate (Republican)Thomas Crooks fired from a nearby rooftop at a Butler, PA rally. Trump was grazed in the ear; one attendee, Corey Comperatore, was killed. Crooks was shot dead by Secret Service.
Sep 2024Donald TrumpCandidate (Republican)Ryan Wesley Routh hid for nearly 12 hours in shrubbery outside Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach with an SKS rifle. Spotted by Secret Service before Trump came into range; Routh fled and was captured. Sentenced to life in prison in February 2026.
Feb 2026Donald TrumpPresidentAustin Tucker Martin, 21, drove into the Mar-a-Lago security perimeter with a gas can and shotgun. Shot and killed by Secret Service; Trump was in Washington at the time.
Apr 2026Donald TrumpPresidentGunshots were heard while Trump was attending the White House Correspondents' Dinner. The Secret Service evacuated Trump, Melania, Vice President JD Vance, and several Cabinet members. A suspect was apprehended at the scene.

The Line of Succession

The U.S. Constitution and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 outline the presidential line of succession. The line of succession of cabinet officers is in the order of their agencies’ creation
  1. Vice President
  2. Speaker of the House
  3. President Pro Tempore of the Senate
  4. Secretary of State
  5. Secretary of the Treasury
  6. Secretary of Defense
  7. Attorney General
  8. Secretary of the Interior
  9. Secretary of Agriculture
  10. Secretary of Commerce
  11. Secretary of Labor
  12. Secretary of Health and Human Services
  13. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
  14. Secretary of Transportation
  15. Secretary of Energy
  16. Secretary of Education
  17. Secretary of Veterans Affairs
  18. Secretary of Homeland Security
Historical examples of presidents dealing with domestic surprise and uncertainty.  But unlike foreign and military policy, domestic issues present the president with limited authority and competing power structures.


Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee:
  • "Predictable Surprise": The storm's severity and the failure of levees were foreseen, yet officials remained complacent in preparation.
  • Systemic Failure: The disaster was not limited to one agency, but a failure of local, state, and federal leadership to adequately execute response plans.
  • Failure of Initiative: Officials failed to take charge, often waiting for directions, which rendered first responders overwhelmed and ineffective.
  • Communications and Command Breakdown: Widespread loss of communication infrastructure and lack of clear command structures hampered coordination
COVID -- most policy responses were at the state and local leve.
Trump COVID-19 response timeline (2020)

Jan 3, 2020 Trump administration briefed on Wuhan outbreak

Jan 29, 2020 White House Coronavirus Task Force formed

Jan 31, 2020 Travel restrictions on China announced

Feb 2, 2020 "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China"

Feb 7, 2020 Woodward tape: "This is deadly stuff"

Feb 26, 2020 "It's a little like the regular flu" — White House press conference, at 2:20

Feb 28, 2020 "This is their new hoax" — South Carolina rally

Mar 13, 2020 National emergency declared; $50 billion unlocked

Mar 18, 2020 Families First Coronavirus Response Act signed
Legislation

Mar 27, 2020 CARES Act signed — $2.2 trillion stimulus
Legislation

Apr 5, 2020 Woodward tape: Realization of severity — "When I saw how many were dying"

Apr 14, 2020 WHO funding halted pending review

May 15, 2020 Operation Warp Speed launched:  will spend $18 billion on parallel processing of vaccines.


Jul 21, 2020 Woodward tape: "The virus has nothing to do with me"

Aug 23, 2020 Emergency authorization for convalescent plasma — amid controversy

Oct 2, 2020 Trump tests positive for COVID-19; hospitalized at Walter Reed

Dec 11–18, 2020 Pfizer and Moderna vaccines receive emergency authorization