President Obama and PM Rudd

With Copenhagen talks and Afghanistan policy on the President's plate, international cooperation becomes more and more important.

This morning Australian PM Kevin Rudd met with President Obama and Secretary Clinton, declaring:

Australia takes its alliance with the United States very seriously. That’s why we have been with America for a long time in Afghanistan, and why we will be with America for the long haul.

The President has also been (seemingly successfully) pushing for NATO to increase its troop level in Afghanistan and helped convince Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to attend the Copenhagen talks.

A NATO diplomat said Friday that European and other nations already participating in the international force are expected to contribute between 4,000 and 6,000 fresh troops.

...


China announced today that Premier Wen Jiabao will attend the Copenhagen climate summit and that China will commit to reducing its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.

Foreign Policy & National Security I

The Football

Recognition

• Truman and Israel


• China


• Cuba

Treaties & Executive Agreements


Use of Armed Force

Organization

• National Security Council


• Intelligence Community


• The Military


• Foreign Service

Presidential Health

This article from Slate discusses a new theory about FDR's health in his final days. A new book alleges that FDR actually died from a cancer that he and his doctor's knew about before he ran for his fourth term.

Conspiracy theories like this bring up important issues of presidential transparency. How much are president's and their doctors obligated to reveal about their health? When such a private issue can affect the nation so greatly, is it better to be honest or to uphold the image of the president? JFK kept his health problems private, going out of his way to appear athletic and energetic. After Reagan was shot, he walked into the hospital without help. Bush Sr. was mocked for vomiting on the Japanese Prime Minister. The McCain campaign was criticized for minimizing McCain's melanoma battle.

If FDR really did have cancer, why would he decide to run for a fourth term? How much did it affect his selection of Truman as a running mate? How much does a president's health factor into his decisions?

Hollywood and the Presidency

Actors have endorsed presidential candidates. Harry Belafonte backed JFK. Ronald Reagan made a famous speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater.Actors have run for president. Ronald Reagan usually played good guys, but in his last role, he played a villain.

Movies and TV shows portray real and fictional presidents and presidential candidates:

• Gabriel Over the White House (1933)
• The Best Man (1964)
• Air Force One (1997)
• The West Wing
• 24

Movies supply insights into attitudes of their time. Did Americans think about military matters and nuclear war in the years after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? See scenes from three 1964 movies:

• Seven Days in May (military coup)
• Fail-Safe (scary accidental attack)
• Dr. Strangelove (funny accidental attack)
  
  
  Did a conspiracy kill JFK? Most Americans think so. And so Oliver Stone's JFK (1991) found an audience. Though a few years later, Seinfeld had a different take.

Pacific Presidents

Article by George Will that expands on the idea that we briefly touched on in class. During his trip to Asia, Obama claimed that he was the first "Pacific President", Professor Pitney pretty much debunked that, and this article goes into even further detail. This article also seems to take a very negative view of Obama and doesn't criticize so much for fact checking but instead seems to take it out on Obama as being egotistical.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/223821

Defense Outlays

Fiscal Year..........%GDP..........%Outlays

2010.....................4.8.....................19.9

2000.....................3.0....................16.5

1990......................5.2....................23.9

1980......................4.9....................22.7

1970......................8.1.....................41.8

1960.....................9.3.....................52.2

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2010/assets/hist.pdf

Freakonomics: The President's Party and the Economy

The Freakonomics blog posted on how the economy fares under different Presidents.

The salient points:

Since 1949, Democratic presidents almost always presided over a decreasing or flattening of income inequality. During that same time period, Republican presidents have always presided over increasing income inequality.

...

Additionally, real per-capita G.D.P. growth for all income strata is consistently higher under Democratic presidents. Individuals in the 95th percentile, however, do well under both Democratic and Republican presidents, but growth for the rich still tends to be higher when a Republican is in office.

...

Democrats preside over lower levels of unemployment while their Republican counterparts have historically presided over lower levels of inflation. The most accepted explanation for this phenomenon is the existence of a short-run Philips Curve in which inflation and unemployment are inversely related.

...

In the first two years of a Democratic president’s term, the economic growth accelerates. During the third and fourth years, however, the economic growth decreases. The opposite effect is seen with Republican presidents, who preside over decreasing overall growth during the first two years of their term only to have it followed by increased economic growth as re-election looms

Economic Policymaking

Centrality of economic issues in current public opinion

Graphs and data

The Federal Budget Challenge

Presidential Court Packing

A recent Obama nominee to the Chicago-based appeals court was just confirmed.

Democrats on Tuesday crushed a Senate filibuster against a controversial appeals court nominee, demonstrating to Republicans they can't stop President Barack Obama from turning the federal judiciary to the left.

HuffPo goes on to say:

Beyond the political message, the filibuster effectively ended a bipartisan accord reached in 2005, when 14 senators signed onto a deal that effectively stopped Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees except in extraordinary circumstances...

The Senate confirmed 326 of Bush's court nominees. There are 876 court seats, mostly for the regionally based courts of appeals and lower district courts.

.

Domestic Policy and Civil Rights

Little Rock executive order

JFK on civil rights:



LBJ & Mississippi Burning

Stages of the Policy Process

1. Initiation/Streams: Problems, Solutions, Politics
2. Estimation
3. Selection
4. Implementation
5. Evaluation
6. Termination
   

Navigating Nuances in Nippon

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/obama_emperor_bow/2009/11/15/286508.html

Though Newsmax is hardly CNN.com, the article focuses on the history of the presidency when discussing the nature and ramifications of BO's back issues in front of foreign leaders.

The President and the Judiciary

How do presidents try to influence the courts? Once way is through legal arguments. Note the role of the Solicitor General.

Supreme Court nominations can be crucial.

• See the story behind Justice Fortas.
• See the story behind Justice O'Connor.
  
  

The Obama Administration and the Obama White House

The Cabinet

The West Wing

Staff

EOP

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Essence of Decision: Cheat Sheet

Air Midterm

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper. If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications

Identify the meaning and significance of the following items. On the real final exam, I shall ask you to write a short paragraph on each item that you choose. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

1. Hayes-Tilden race (1876)
2. Martin Van Buren
3. The nuclear freeze
4. The Hepburn Act
5. Helvidius
6. The Roosevelt Corollary
7. The Fair Deal
8. Youngstown v. Sawyer
9. The “Revolution” of 1800
10. Superdelegates
11. Mike Huckabee
12. Politics of preemption

II. Quotations.

Different presidents made the following statements at different times. Tell who said what and why.

The bank is professedly established as an agent of the executive branch of the Government, andits constitutionality is maintained on that ground. Neither upon the propriety of present action nor upon the provisions of this act was the Executive consulted. It has had no opportunity to say that it neither needs nor wants an agent clothed with such powers and favored by such exemptions. There is nothing in its legitimate functions which makes it necessary or proper. Whatever interest or influence, whether public or private, has given birth to this act, it can not be found either in the wishes or necessities of the executive department, by which present action is deemed premature, and the powers conferred upon its agent not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and country.

I did understand however, that my oath to preserve the constitution to the best of my ability, imposed upon me the duty of preserving, by every indispensable means, that government -- that nation -- of which that constitution was the organic law. Was it possible to lose the nation, and yet preserve the constitution? By general law life and limb must be protected; yet often a limb must be amputated to save a life; but a life is never wisely given to save a limb.

But in the event that the Congress shall fail to take one of these two courses, and in the event that the national emergency is still critical, I shall not evade the clear course of duty that will then confront me. I shall ask the Congress for the one remaining instrument to meet the crisis—broad Executive power to wage a war against the emergency, as great as the power that would be given to me if we were in fact invaded by a foreign foe.

III. General essays

Resolved: President Obama won the 2008 election primarily because of underlying features of American electoral politics, and his campaign made relatively little difference. Do you agree or disagree? Explain, with reference to the Ceaser book, along with other class material.

Is it possible to devise an objective measure of presidential greatness? Explain.

Bonus Questions

• Lloyd Bentsen
• Sidney Blumenthal
• Louis Biffer
• Benazir Bhutto
• Kathleen Blanco

Obama’s Vetting Questionnaire Online

Here is a copy of the 7 page, 63 item questionnaire for potential candidates. Could you work in the Obama White House?

The Executive Branch

(The whole documentary is here, in five segments.)

White House tours

Executive Office of the President

All presidents worry about staff leaks. LBJ did. Even the Bartlet White House did.

The Cabinet

"Tear down the wall"

A look into Reagan's Berlin speech and his famous line telling Gorbachev to "tear down the wall."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704795604574522163362062796.html

The President Whose Words Once Soared

This is an interesting article that discusses about the effects of Obama's speeches on decision making and public opinion. It questions whether Obama's speech making skills are beginning to lose their influential touch, and whether he will be able to have his expected impact in policy making as he continues to give multiple speeches a day and the intended audience begins to tune out. The article also mentions the large increase in the frequency of presidential speech making over time, referencing specific president's such as Truman and Reagan. Because of this change, individual speeches are less influential in general, which can be detrimental to a president like Obama who strives on his ability to communicate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/weekinreview/08baker.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

Those who voted for the bill.

After our discussion about LBJ and negotiating for votes, I wonder what these Democratic members got for voting in favor of the healthcare bill? This link has a list of Democrats who represent GOP-leaning districts but still voted with the caucus.

Summarized into 3 groups: 

R+11 or worse: 0 Yes, 14 No 

R+3 to R+10: 20 Yes, 18 No 

R+2 or better: 199 Yes, 7 No

YES votes in R+3 to R+10 group: 

ND-AL Pomeroy (R+10) 

WV-01 Mollohan (R+9) 

AR-01 Berry (R+9) 

IN-08 Ellsworth (R+9) 

PA-10 Carney (R+9) 

OH-18 Space (R+7) 

SC-05 Spratt (R+6) 

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick (R+6) 

IN-09 Hill (R+6) 

WV-03 Rahall (R+6) 

AZ-05 Mitchell (R+5) 

AR-02 Snyder (R+5) 

CO-03 Salazar (R+5) 

VA-05 Perriello (R+5) 

AZ-08 Giffords (R+4) 

TX-23 Rodriguez (R+3) 

KS-03 Moore (R+3) 

MI-01 Stupak (R+3) 

NY-19 Hall (R+3) 

PA-03 Dahlkemper (R+3)

The Health Vote

The New York Times has an extremely informative table showing the characteristics of the House Democrats who votes against the health bill. A summary:

Only one Republican voted for the bill, and 39 Democrats opposed it, including 24 members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. An overwhelming majority of the Democratic lawmakers who opposed the bill — 31 of the 39 — represent districts that were won by Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, in the 2008 presidential election, and a third of them were freshmen. Nearly all of the fourteen freshmen Democrats who voted “no” represent districts that were previously Republican and are considered vulnerable in 2010. Geographically, 22 lawmakers from southern states formed the largest opposition bloc. Below are details on the Democrats that opposed the health care legislation in the House.

Peggy Noonan on the Obama Administration's Agenda and Tuesday's Election

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574517751596221752.html

Interesting Peggy Noonan article about Obama's support to Democratic candidates, and its rapidly slipping hold on American voters concerned about the economy:

A president has only so much time. Mr. Obama gives a lot of his to health care. But the majority of voters in New Jersey and Virginia told pollsters they were primarily worried about joblessness and the economy. They're on another path, and they don't like the path he's chosen. A majority in a Gallup poll out Wednesday said they now think the president governs from the left, not the middle. The majority did not expect that a year ago.

The president chose promises made before the recession fully took hold, rather than more pressing and pertinent public concerns. In the language of marketing that has become the language of politics he thereby, in his first year, damaged his brand.

NAIL: A Simple Mnemonic for Congressional Checks

NAIL is a mnemonic device for four ways by which the legislative branch oversees or checks the executive.

• Nominations. The Senate must confirm presidential nominations to high-level executive posts. Most nominations are uncontroversial and win easy approval. But the threat of defeating nominees may influence the names that the president sends to the Hill. And confirmation hearings not only enable senators to judge the nominees' qualifications but let them send messages to the administration. See Leahy ask Mukasey about torture. See Harkin talk to Solis about disabilities.


• Appropriations. Lawmakers may use earmarks and limitations are to direct and restrict the availability of funds for specified activities. Look here for a map of some earmarks. As with nominations, they may also use hearings to raise policy questions. See Obey ask Secretary Gates about Gitmo.


• Investigations. Congressional committees often conduct investigations and oversight hearings. One famous example was the Senate Watergate Committee, in which then-staffer Fred Thompson played a role. Recently, Senator Feingold held an oversight hearing on "czars." Congress may also study executive branch operations through the GAO, the CBO, and the CRS.


• Legislation. Of course, Congress may influence the executive by passing laws requiring or forbidding certain activities. As the readings point out, the Supreme Court ruled against the "legislative veto."

Congress seldom resorts to a more powerful weapon: impeachment. See the cases of Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton.

In curbing the executive, how successful has Congress been? Under which circumstances does which branch have the upper hand?

Third Essay Assignment

Choose one:

1 See a day in the Ford presidency or choose a day in the Clinton presidency. Did the president use his time wisely on that day? If so, why? If not, what should he have done differently?

2. Anthony Kennedy has just retired from the Supreme Court. Whom should President Obama nominate in his place? Explain, considering qualifications and confirmability.

3. Identify a personnel change that you would make in the Obama administration. In other words, whom would you sack and whom would you hire in that person’s place? Explain how your proposed change would serve the president.

4. The recently-ratified Twenty-Eighth Amendment has made you – yes, you, a college student here in Claremont – the 45^th president, filling the rest of President Obama’s term. Explain a program or idea that you would attempt to carry out, other than what the current president is already doing.

5. Rahm Emanuel has asked for your advice: “I need your ##@!!!% help,” he says. “What the &&%%$#@ should President Obama do to influence congressional action on either health care or climate change? Write me a **&&^%$ memo, and do it $$#%^& fast.”

6. Write on a relevant question of your own choosing, subject to my approval.

• Essays should be typed (12 point), stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.

• Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages.

• Cite your sources. You may use either endnotes or parenthetical references to a bibliography. In either case, put your documentation in a standard format (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style).

• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.

• Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday, 18 November. Essays will drop one gradepoint for one day's lateness and a full grade for two or more days' lateness. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

The shifting conventional wisdom

Not so long ago, everyone was talking about the failures of the White House's hands-off approach to the the health care reform legislative process. But I think this new understanding reflects the way the White House has seen the field since Day One.

President and Congress

This week, we look at relations between the branches.

How does the president try to get his way with Congress? (See roll call votes).


How does the president try to get his way around Congress? The answer to both questions involves a mix of formal authority (e.g., vetoes, executive orders, signing statements), public pronouncements (veto messages, statements of administration policy (SAPs) and informal persuasion.



As for the former, note how both President Clinton and President Bartlet used the Antiquities Act. In this case, as in others, have presidents overstepped their authority?



As for the latter, shall see a classic video presentation of LBJ working his will on Congress. Here is an audio on the same topic. (And another.) Could you picture similar conversations with President Bush?

On Wednesday, we take the view from Capitol Hill. How does Congress seek to influence or restrain the president and the rest of the executive branch. The ultimate weapon is impeachment, which Representative Kucinich tried to use last year.

Obama's Performance So Far

Newsweek had a cover story on Obama and an analysis of his "first year" in office. They are saying that his Presidency actually starts on the day he was elected because of the power he was able to put to use from outside the White House. For instance, according to his staffers, he made the decision on election night to pursue Healthcare.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/219372

Also, on a completely different note here's an old news piece about President Bush's adventures with Sushi and the Japanese Prime Minister that we discussed in class a couple weeks ago. I'll preface it by saying it does show the moment he throws up on the Prime Minister so only watch if you're so inclined.

You can find it here.