Public Opinion, the Press, and Speeches

• George Washington, properly understood.
• You may find historical data on presidential approval in Pika, p. 90. Here is a graph of recent data.
• An example of a press conference memo.
• A clip of today's press briefing.
• A reading of the Gettysburg Address runs just two and a half minutes.
• Listen to FDR's "map speech" while looking at a 1942 map.

One of the WP politics blogs had this to say about Colbert's appeal:

"a Republican polling firm, recently completed a national poll of 1,000 likely 2008 voters that included Colbert's name in both the GOP and Democratic primaries. (He has announced his plans to run in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.) In the field from Oct. 18-21, the survey has a 5 percent margin of error.

In the Democratic primary, Colbert takes 2.3 percent of the vote -- good for fifth place behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (40 percent), Sen. Barack Obama (19 percent), former Sen. John Edwards (12 percent) and Sen. Joe Biden (2.7 percent. Colbert finished ahead of Gov. Bill Richardson (2.1 percent), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (2.1 percent) and former Sen. Mike Gravel (less than 1 percent).

He was less lucky in the Republican field, where he took less than 1 percent of the vote behind even longshot candidates like Reps. Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul."

Hillary Running Away with the Dem Nomination

Supporters of Obama and Edwards like to think that Hillary Clinton -- like Howard Dean, Gary Hart and Ted Kennedy before her -- will go on to lose the Democratic nomination despite her early lead in the polls.

This study by Gallup Polling, however, suggests that such a scenario is unlikely. Hillary Clinton consistently leads her nearest rival by more than twenty points in national polls -- a rare feat in Democratic primary history and something that has occurred only twice before. In three of four Gallup polls taken in 1979, Ted Kennedy led Jimmy Carter by more than twenty points; in twelve of fifteen polls in 1999, Al Gore was ahead of Bill Bradley.

Gallup's study argues that the analogue to Clinton's 2007 dominance in national polling is Gore's lead in 1999. It also distinguishes Clinton's frontrunner status from Kennedy and Hart's:

Kennedy and Hart ultimately lost their nomination bids, but their large leads came much earlier in the campaigns. Kennedy's candidacy lost its steam when Jimmy Carter's popularity surged in late 1979 following the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Hart's 20-point lead occurred in the last poll taken before he suspended his campaign after the press was able to confirm rumors he was having an extramarital affair.

Gallup concludes that Clinton should "play it safe" to avoid jeopardizing her lead in the polls and approves of her recent emphasis on issues "that Democratic primary voters may not necessarily endorse, but that may position her better for the general election campaign against the Republican."

But national polls don't tell the whole story. We don't nominate our Presidents by a national primary, after all. Instead we allow two random states, unrepresentative of the demography of the whole nation, to decide for us. That's why Hillary, for her own part, is refusing the "inevitable" label, at least in Iowa. Yesterday, she told supporters that she is campaigning as if she were running "ten or twenty points behind" her closest rivals.

Hillary Clinton and Drudge

Given how much attention Halperin and Harris give to Matt Drudge and the Freak Show, I found this article in the New York Times to be very interesting. It goes together so nicely, you would almost think that people in Hillary campaign were reading our books.
Clinton Finds Way to Play Along With Drudge.

Mrs. Clinton’s aides declined to discuss how the Drudge Report got access to her latest fund-raising figures nearly 20 minutes before the official announcement went to supporters. But it was a prime example of a development that has surprised much of the political world: Mrs. Clinton is learning to play nice with the Drudge Report and the powerful, elusive and conservative-leaning man behind it.

Colbert for President?

Stephen Colbert has announced that he is running for president. He is circulating petitions for the Republican and Democratic primaries in his native South Carolina.

There is just one problem: if his name appears on a real ballot, he runs the risk of breaking campaign finance laws. Politico quotes a Democratic election lawyer: “You don’t get a different set of rules because you’re running as a joke.”

Tactics in Presidential Elections

The best archive of presidential campaign ad is The Living Room Candidate. A good source of current spots (with some historical ads) is 4President.

Some moments from presidential debates. And a vice presidential debate: Bentsen-Quayle 1988.

Who voted for Bush and Kerry? See here for the exit poll.

Though the election was close nationwide, it was not close in most localities. See the graph of landslide counties.

Strategy in Presidential Electors

There are various formulas for predicting presidential elections. Here is one that relies only on the economy. The "13 Keys" model is both broader and more subjective.

Halperin and Harris write of Karl Rove, who served as President Bush's strategist. As a PBS documentary showed, Rove linked campaigning and governing in sophisticated ways.

As Halperin and Harris also explain, people such as Rove lie awake at night thinking about the electoral college. For more detail on the electoral college than you probably need, see here.

For a representation of "The Message Grid," see here.