Strategy in Presidential Electors

There are various formulas for predicting presidential elections. Here is one that relies only on the economy. The "13 Keys" model is both broader and more subjective.

Halperin and Harris write of Karl Rove, who served as President Bush's strategist. As a PBS documentary showed, Rove linked campaigning and governing in sophisticated ways.

As Halperin and Harris also explain, people such as Rove lie awake at night thinking about the electoral college. For more detail on the electoral college than you probably need, see here.

For a representation of "The Message Grid," see here.

Bush: Victim of Election Year Executive Flight or Evader of Senate Confirmation?

The New York Times today published a report noting that interim heads, intended to temporarily fill a position in the executive branch until the Senate confirms a new presidential nominee, currently fill a large portion of positions. Under the Vacancies Reform Act, passed in 1998, a president has 210 days to nominate another candidate for review by the Senate. Judging from the article, it seems as though Bush is solely the victim of flight from the executive branch in the runup to an election year; the fragility of the job security of conservatives is apparent given the growing possibility of a Democratic victory next November. Alternatively, the Times also suggests that the Bush adminstration may be attempting to circumvent the Senate's right to confirm executive appointments. Whatever the case, it seems as though the public has come to suffer from a lack of experienced and efficient heads at the helm of our executive agencies.

Schumer and Specter Push for Overturn of Buckley v. Valeo

As I was sifting through the news from this week, I found this article on the website of the New York Times. The article reports on the efforts of Senators Schumer and Specter to challenge the Supreme Court's ruling in Buckley v. Valeo (1976). In Buckley v. Valeo, the Court ruled that giving money to influence elections is a constitutionally protected form of free speech. Additionally, the case effectively banned restrictions on candidates giving to their own campaigns, allowing candidates like Ross Perot and Steve Forbes to fund their own bids for the presidency. To digress, ABC News reported this week that Mitt Romney has surpassed Steve Forbes in donations to his own campaign; in class, we witnessed the effects of this money when we saw the video of the Ron Paul supporter criticizing Romney's excessive use of buses in the Iowa straw poll. Schumer and Specter have joined the opposition to current campaign finance laws which, they argue, allow for large donors to drown out the political voices of "average" Americans. The effort to challenge Buckley v. Valeo, however, seems to be ill fated given that a similar attempt failed in the Senate in 2001. We find ourselves, however, in another election year in which the frontrunners for party nominations have all declined federal funds. Perhaps this time around, Schumer and Specter will find a more responsive public.

The Nomination Campaign

Here is a great site for campaign ads, both current and historical.

Log Cabin Republicans "help" Mitt Romney via YouTube.


Here is a Giuliani vulnerability study. Though it was for the 1993 mayoral race, it does suggest what a presidential-campaign version might look like.

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Convention moments:

• Riots 1968
• Pat Buchanan 1992

Writing Tips

Grading your papers reminds me of some writing tips:
1. Always introduce your quotations by identifying the speaker or writer in your text. Do not force your readers to go to the endnotes to figure out the origin of the passage that you quote.
2. What do you do when your endnotes cite a work more than once? Here is the answer:
In your essay’s footnotes or endnotes you will only need to use the full citation form once for a specific source. All subsequent citations of that same source will use either the Latin abbreviation “Ibid.” or a shortened citation. [More detail here.]
3. Superscripts follow punctuation marks (except a dash) in text and appear outside a closing parenthesis. Use Arabic numerals for endnotes.
4. Do not dangle your modifiers.
5. The CMC Writing Center, in Bauer 32, offers writing advice – in half-hour sessions – to all CMC students in need of help. Its hours are as follows:
Sunday 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Monday 9 a.m. - Noon, 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Tuesday 9 a.m. - Noon., 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Wednesday 9-Noon, 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Thursday 9-Noon, 1-5 p.m., 7-10 p.m.Friday 9-12 a.m.

The Presidential Nomination Process

Helena asked about the history of the unit rule in the electoral college. A brief (albeit opinionated) summary is here.

Madeleine asked about the complex system of federal matching funds. You may find more detail here.

The New York Times has good information on the delegate-selection process, including the latest dates for party primaries and caucuses. Before any official delegate selection there are unofficial events such as the Ames straw poll.

If you want to see some brief clips of Iowa caucuses, see here.

And the Dean Scream ... from a different perspective.

Presidential Advisers

I heard Professor Pitney talking to the New York Times on the phone about this issue and found the article this weekend. It seems like the advisory role has shifted throughout time. Lincoln embraced the debate that surrounded him and welcomed dissenting opinions. In these past 7 years, Karl Rove and Dick Cheney seemed to have run the show, how many dissenting opinions does the President listen to today?

When we elect our next president are we voting for the candidate or for his/her staff and advisers? There is a lot of talk about Hillary Clinton's team, there was a great article in the Washington Post this summer about "Hillaryland." After the Bush and Clinton presidencies, and the impact of their closest advisers, it seems like there is more to consider in an election than is clear to the American public.