Presidential Elections and the Fundamentals

Mitt

• Supercut of Gingrich Super PAC attack ads
• But in spite of problems, he had advantages all along.
• Apple-knockers still pervade the GOP

Campaign Finance

Romney and Obama:  The Polls

The Vice Presidential Candidate?

• Little general effect
• Little home-state effect

Ads?  47%? Debates?  Sandy?

Fundamentals I:  The Economy



Fundamentals II: Job Approval

Fundamentals III:  Partisanship and Polarization

Nomination Politics

Discovery, Scrutiny, Decline

Factions of the Republican Party

Perry

• Money
• High on fatigue
• Oops

Cain and Libya

Gingrich

• Applause v. Juan Williams
• Applause v. John King
• Romney and why oppo is important

Santorum and Kennedy

Mitt

• Supercut of Gingrich Super PAC attack ads

Presidential Selection Process

From Federalist 39:

The executive power will be derived from a very compound source. The immediate election of the President is to be made by the States in their political characters. The votes allotted to them are in a compound ratio, which considers them partly as distinct and coequal societies, partly as unequal members of the same society. The eventual election, again, is to be made by that branch of the legislature which consists of the national representatives; but in this particular act they are to be thrown into the form of individual delegations, from so many distinct and coequal bodies politic. From this aspect of the government it appears to be of a mixed character, presenting at least as many federal as national features.

More in Federalist 68 

• National Archives site on the electoral college
• History of the process
• An example: Rhode Island 2012
• Bush v. Gore. "The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as the means to implement its power to appoint members of the electoral college."
• Faithless electors
• Seeking flippers
• National popular vote?

Convention moments:

• "Extremism in the defense of liberty" 1964
• Riots 1968
• Kennedy upstages Carter 1980
• Pat Buchanan 1992

George Will: President Obama vs. Congress

"In his address about the Islamic State (which did not mention Khorasan, the asserted imminent threat that supposedly justified acting without Congress), Obama spoke to the public, not to the public’s institutional embodiment, Congress, whose support he said would be 'welcome,' implying that it is unnecessary... Obama is demonstrating in foreign policy what he has redundantly demonstrated in domestic policy—a supine Congress is superfluous to governance."

Are Congressional term limits the answer? Here is the link to the full article.

Reagan, Clinton, and the Bushes

Reagan

• Carter v. Reagan, 1980
• Economic fundamentals of the era
• 1981 Inaugural.
• INS v. Chadha
• "Tear Down This Wall"
• Iran-Contra and 1990 deposition

Deficits

Debt

Bush 41

• "Read my lips" and the 1992 reverb
• Bush and the prime minister

Clinton

Clinton, alas, will go down for an unfortunate phrase.




Bush 43

The Present's Problematic Predicament for Past Presidents

Professor Pitney mentioned a while ago that Woodrow Wilson would not get away with referencing Darwin in today's political culture. When you come to think of it, many past presidents would probably perish politically in the present.

This is an interesting article about Ken Burns's documentary about the Roosevelts. Of particular relevance is the description of how TR and FDR would fare in today's political-media culture. 

"We are in a media culture where we are buried in information but we know nothing," said Burns. "Because of that superficiality, we expect heroes to be perfect, but they're not. They are a strange combination of strengths and weaknesses." He points to two of his main characters as examples. "Franklin and Theodore couldn't get out of the Iowa caucuses [today]. Franklin is too infirm. CNN and Fox would be vying for the worst images of him unlocking the braces, the sweat pouring off his brow, the obvious pain and that kind of pity that it would engender would be political poison. And Theodore is just too hot for the new medium of television. There would be 10 'Howard Dean' moments a day."

And it also touches on their role in expanding presidential powers:

Bold, persistent experimentation is what FDR called it. Both Roosevelts were always on the move, clashing with the prevailing order, whether it was the party bosses or members of Congress. They often won. FDR had the Depression to create the sense of crisis that gave him free rein, but Teddy Roosevelt had no such calamity. He worried about that, saying that Lincoln would have been a forgettable president without the Civil War. Teddy had no such war, and yet we still talk about his bully pulpit and quote his aphorism about carrying a big stick when talking about presidential power. He took on the monopolies, threatened to send federal troops to operate the coal mines, and battled for the Pure Food and Drug Act and the Federal Meat Inspection Act.

Definitely worth a read-through.


Apologies for missing the past two classes -- I'll see you all on Monday!


NUF said

Ike Through Jimmy

Just before Eisenhower became president, his son John went to Korea to serve in an infantry unit. In the New York Times, the younger Eisenhower recalls a conversation that you probably never had with your dad.

As the time for my deployment approached, I discussed my intentions with my father. We met at the Blackstone Hotel in Chicago, just after the Republican convention, and I explained my position. My father, as a professional officer himself, understood and accepted it. However, he had a firm condition: under no circumstances must I ever be captured. He would accept the risk of my being killed or wounded, but if the Chinese Communists or North Koreans ever took me prisoner, and threatened blackmail, he could be forced to resign the presidency. I agreed to that condition wholeheartedly. I would take my life before being captured.

Ponder that last line. A president needs a pint or two of very cold blood.

In early 1961, Ike gave his Farewell Address, famously warning of the military-industrial complex. Days later, the torch passed to JFK, who took a distinctly militant tone in the Cold War. Kennedy took full advantage of new technology, starting the practice of holding press conferences on live TV. His successor, Lyndon Johnson, had an earthy way of expressing himself.

In future weeks, we shall discuss Nixon in greater detail. But this brief clip gives a glimpse of what he termed a "cold-blooded" view of international politics. President Nixon sought to rally the "silent majority" for his Vietnam policies.  Also note a small chapter of actual drunk history.

• Ford was a healer.
• Carter wore a sweater and gave the "malaise" speech.